2008 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

    
May 12th, 2008
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The 2008 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday night, May 20th.  Just like last year, when neither Memphis or Boston (the worst teams) ended up with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, Miami and Seattle fans shouldn't get too excited about the prospect of snagging Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose.

 

Miami obviously has the best chance at #1 with 25% odds. Notice however, that they have less than a 50% chance combined of getting the Top 2 picks. There's actually a better chance (53.5%) that they will get the 3rd pick or below. The same goes for the Sonics who have a 61.3% chance of getting the 3rd pick or below. In fact, the most likely pick that both the Heat and Sonics will get is the 4th pick.

 

Both Minnesota and Memphis, who have the 3rd best odds (those teams finished with the same record but Minnesota gets an extra ping-pong ball), are actually most likely to end up with the 5th pick.

 

Included in the top chart is each team's chance of getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. These are official numbers supplied by NBA.com.

 

TEAM

RECORD

COMBOS

1st

2nd

3rd

Miami

15-67

250

25.00%

21.47%

17.72%

Seattle

20-62

199

19.90%

18.78%

17.07%

Minnesota

22-60

138

13.80%

14.24%

14.54%

Memphis

22-60

137

13.70%

14.16%

14.48%

New York

23-59

76

7.60%

8.44%

9.47%

L.A. Clippers

23-59

75

7.50%

8.33%

9.37%

Milwaukee

26-56

43

4.30%

4.93%

5.77%

Charlotte

32-50

28

2.80%

3.26%

3.87%

Chicago

33-49

17

1.70%

2.00%

2.40%

New Jersey

34-48

11

1.10%

1.30%

1.57%

Indiana

36-46

8

0.80%

0.95%

1.15%

Sacramento

38-44

7

0.70%

0.83%

1.01%

Portland

41-41

6

0.60%

0.71%

0.87%

Golden State

48-34

5

0.50%

0.59%

0.72%

 

Also See: Last year's Odds