2009 NCAA Tournament Projection: Late Summer Update
September 9th, 2008
by Shawn Siegel
2009 Final Four
A day after the National Title Game, I took an early stab at projecting the 2009 NCAA Tournament.. and then following the official decisions of Draft prospects, it was time for another update.. and now that the off-season has shaken itself out and kids are heading to class.. its time for the third and final summer update.
Changes Are in Red:
Temple replaces New Mexico State - Potential Aggies star Herb Pope transferred to Seton Hall. His departure, along with Passos and Hawkins means there's just not enough returning talent left. Temple is arguably the top team in the A-10 and slides into an at-large bid in my projection.
Southern Illinois replaces Drake - No real news affected this pick. And in fact, SIU just lost Joshua Bone who played significant minutes last year. But, I'm hearing that SIU's rookies are the real deal, and I'm not sold on Drake being anything more than a one year wonder.
Washington replaces Stanford - This was actually a mistake from the last article.. with both Lopez bros in the NBA, the Cardinal lack a serious frontcourt presence. But I still think they'll be better than many expect. Washington was my last team out in the last update, so was an obvious choice to make it instead.
North Dakota State replaces IUPUI - The Summit league champs were switched because on the day I put the previous list together, I hadn't heard yet that George Hill was off to the NBA.
Multi-Bid Leagues (45)
Big East (9) - UCONN - (Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame,
Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC (6) - UNC - (Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
Pac-10 (5) - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, USC,
Washington)
Big 12 (5) - Kansas - (Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M)
Big Ten (4) - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin)
SEC (4) - Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee)
A-10 (3) - Xavier -
(Dayton, Temple)
Mountain West (2) - UNLV - (BYU)
Missouri Valley (2) - Creighton - (Southern Illinois)
Conference USA (2) - Memphis - (UAB)
WCC (2) - Gonzaga - (Saint Mary's)
One-Bid Leagues (20)
America East - Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Pacific
CAA - VCU
Horizon - Wright State
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - American
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - North Dakota State
Sun Belt - MTSU
WAC - Nevada
Last Five In:
Southern Illinois, Missouri, West Virginia, Texas A&M, Ohio State
Next In Line: Washington State, New Mexico, San Diego, San Diego State,
Alabama
Out: Drake, IUPUI, New Mexico State, Stanford
Out in 2nd Update:
Mississippi State
Also: Check out
last year's projection which had some good, bad, and ugly picks.
Comments
Big East - 7 'Nova and
Submitted by gtmoBlue on Tue, 2008-09-09 15:40.
Big East - 7 'Nova and S'Cuse don't make it.
SEC - 5 Vandy is in.
Big 12 - 4 Either Baylor or A&M don't make it.
MWC - 3 New Mexico is in.
WCC - 3 USD is in.
CAA - 2 Mason sneaks in - again.
CUSA - 1 UAB chokes on the bubble.
by the way...La Tech wins the WAC over Nevada.
Pac-10: I think the
Submitted by without_feathers on Tue, 2008-09-09 18:02.
Pac-10: I think the conference receives five bids, but I think California has a good shot to take the last bid from Washington.
Big 12: I think the Big 12 gets six bids. I like Oklahoma State. And I'm hoping leaving Kansas out and putting Missouri in the list above was a mistake?
Big 10: Three bids. How is Ohio State significantly better than they were a year ago?
SEC: Six bids, five at the least. Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Ole Miss are safe bets. I think LSU can be a surprise team this year. Alabama has talent as usual, but can they do anything with it?
A-10: Two bids. Xavier is a lock. After that, it's a toss-up. The A-10 should be very solid top-to-bottom. It's wide open after Xavier. Only problem is that means multiple bids may not happen due to teams canceling each other out. What about Umass? They've got one of the best backcourts in the country with Ricky Harris and Chris Lowe.
Missouri Valley: One bid league again this year, I think. I still like The Drake.
West Coast: Three bids. Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Diego will all be tough outs.
Horizon: I'm going to take a chance on Wisconsin-Green Bay....again. If not them, Cleveland State has a very solid team returning.
America East: Hartford. Finished second a year ago. They return their top six scorers.
Sun Belt: Louisiana Lafayette could be the dark horse. This was one of the youngest teams in the country last year, winning 15 games and tying for first in the Sun Belt West division.
Good post Without Feathers..
Submitted by Shawn Siegel on Tue, 2008-09-09 19:58.
Good post Without Feathers.. I agree with a lot of your suggestions. Big 10 will get more than 3 bids though simply because they're the Big Ten. Cal I don't like at all, but I agree Washington is a fringe team. Hartford is CHN's official projected AE champ, and they could make my pick look bad. I'd be very surprised if the MVC didnt get multi bids this year. It should be the best non-BCS league and won't even be that far behind the B10.
Shawn, Thanks for the help
Submitted by without_feathers on Wed, 2008-09-10 12:39.
Shawn,
Thanks for the help with the password issue.
I think you will ultimately be right regarding the Big Ten. I go back and forth about Ohio State. There are things to like about Ohio State (their incoming class, Lighty could be poised for a big year, Thad Matta is a great coach), but they also lost their top three scorers. They could be one of the last teams in or out.
What will keep the MVC from receiving multiple bids, in my opinion, is the emergence of, typically, one-bid leagues (Conference USA, West Coast) having the opportunity to have multiple bids (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Diego in the West and UAB in C-USA) as well as the number I expect the power conferences to have (the Big East alone should get nine, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of ten). Factor in the A-10 with at least two teams and the pickings start getting slim.
I'm an Ohio State fan, so
Submitted by dz83ck on Fri, 2008-09-19 17:44.
I'm an Ohio State fan, so keep that in mind, but I think OSU is one of the most overlooked teams in the country and should be a top-20 team this year.
I looked at the 2009 and 2010 NBA mock drafts on DraftExpress, and four Ohio State players are taken in those mock drafts, which is the most of any team not named "North Carolina" (there is a 3-way tie with OSU, Gonzaga and UConn). Ohio State gets a lot of scrutiny just because they play in the Big 10, but make no mistake, OSU has as much high level talent as almost any team in the country.
Wake Forest is in a very similar situation as Ohio State, so it isn't really fair to put Wake in and not put Ohio State in. If the ACC doesn't get five teams in, Virginia Tech should definitely be the team that's out.
I think it's ludicrous to project Kentucky to make the NCAA tourney. They have one good player returning. They lost the two guards that carried them last year and have no McDonald's AAs coming in to replace them - that's not a recipe for success in the guard-dominated sport of college basketball. They didn't deserve to make the tourney last year & they won't deserve to make it this year, either. Beware of Gardner-Webb!
Agreed UK shouldn't have
Submitted by Shawn Siegel on Mon, 2008-09-22 09:49.
Agreed UK shouldn't have made it last year, but they're a lock to make it this year. Write it down now.
Also, unfair to compare Wake and OSU. Wake does have some big-time returning sophomores who have already played and starred for a season, and enough depth where at least one of their big-time recruits won't be starting.. OSU will be a solid 8-9 seed, nothing more, nothing less.
The only reason Kentucky
Submitted by dz83ck on Mon, 2008-09-22 13:58.
The only reason Kentucky even has a semblance of a chance is because the top of the SEC is terribly weak, so they can get "quality" wins by beating teams that aren't all that great (which is exactly how they made the tournament last year).
I'll hold you to that 8-9 seed prediction. It's hard to get quality wins in the Big 10 when half of the league has a sub-100 RPI, so it is naturally going to be difficult for OSU to get a high seed even if they win all but a few of their games. Nevertheless, I think they will be in the 4-5 range.
Of course I think you're wrong re: OSU and WF. OSU also has some big-time returning players in David Lighty and Evan Turner who've already played and started for a season (and a little more than one season in Lighty's case). Both Lighty and Turner are projected draft picks in the 2010 NBA draft according to DraftExpress. Also keep in mind that OSU's returning players have been on teams that have clearly had more success at the college level than Wake's guys.
It's very presumptuous for you to suggest that OSU will have no depth this year. You'll just have to wait & see, I guess.
I guess its presumptuous..
Submitted by Shawn Siegel on Thu, 2008-09-25 09:40.
I guess its presumptuous.. but that's what the article is all about.. presuming what will happen during the season. OSU has 6 solid players.. Turner, Lighty, Buford, Crater, Mullens, and I hear Simmons is solid so I'll count him in there too. 4 of the 6 are newcomers which is just too much new talent, especially at the point where I'm not sold on Crater yet.
Shawn, Circuitous logic
Submitted by gtmoBlue on Fri, 2008-09-12 02:09.
Shawn,
Circuitous logic states that the Mids get 4-6 At-Large bids...evidently without_feathers buys into the Media's logic. Mids have slid from 12 down to 6 at-large bids over the last 4-5 years. The prevailing notion is that Mids don't deserve bids, mainly because they are Mids and don't have the SOS, Top 50 W's, Conf RPI, and "just because" they don't play in a so-called BCS conference.
Fortunately the Selection Committee doesn't give away bids, with exception to the Big East & Big 10. The committee selects from the top 130 some odd teams for the 65 in the tourney, with the at-large pool being selected from the remaining top teams not winning their conferences. As we have seen repeatedly, BCS mediocrity is rewarded over overachiever Mids time and again. It is better to be a 50/50 Major conference team than a top tier team in a Mid conference, not withstanding your good team SOS, RPI, and the like. The deck is stacked in favor of the Major conferences.
Having said all that - The following applies.
No conference "deserves" more than 6 bids - period. Mediocrity in Major conferences should not be rewarded...let 'em go to the NIT/CBI.
Mediocrity in the CUSA should not be sanitized by the media pundits, in order to assist Memphis and the 11 dwarfs. If the CUSA was serious about being a legit conference - they should have kept their best teams, rather than allow the mass exodus to the Big East.
Sending the average Major teams to the NIT/CBI reduces the need by the committee to pit 12 deserving Midmajor teams, in the "elimination dance" for the pittance of 4-6 at-large bid spots "reserved" for Mids.
Oh, I know. The little Midmajors ought be happy they are allowed the 4-6 at-large bids they do receive. Why, if the BCSer's had their way, the Mids wouldn't get any at-large bids.
CUSA will continue to be a one bid conference.
Big East "deserves" no more than 6 bids. No conference needs more than 6.
ACC - 5 Bids
SEC - 5 Bids.
PAC-10 - 5 Bids.
Big 10/Big 12 - 4 Bids.
WCC - 3 Bids
MVC - 2 Bids
CAA - 2 Bids
A-10 - 2 Bids
Are you serious? Big East only 6?
Submitted by USCTrogenzz (not verified) on Tue, 2008-10-14 16:38.
You cannot be serious. First of all, there is no reason to decide that a conference should get a certain number in. It's not the conferences that deserve the bids, its the teams. You're saying that a team that goes, say, 26-7 but is only 7-9 or 8-8 in the big east (having to play some of the following, including some more than once: Louisville (consensus top 5-10), UConn (consensus top 5-10), Notre Dame (consensus top 10-15), Pitt (consensus top 5-10), WVU (consensus ranked), Cuse, Nova, etc. doesn't deserve a bid? You're insane. Now if they play Florida's OOC schedule (it is unbearably awful) you may have a case, but that is not the situation with any 7-9 Big East projection teams.
Again, even if the Big East gets 9 in (which is certainly possible) you cannot say that only 6 "deserved" it because they happen to be in the deepest conference. Like I said, the team's earn the spots, not the conferences.
Are you serious? Big East only 6?
Submitted by Go Eagles (of the Winthrop variety) (not verified) on Thu, 2008-10-23 11:59.
PS. How can your imaginary Big East school go 26-7 and still have an 8-8 or 7-9 conference record. In case you were wondering, each conference loss does in fact count as a loss on you overall record. Good try though. Your arguement was....fine.
But you are forgetting...
Submitted by rocky (not verified) on Mon, 2008-10-27 15:40.
...that the committee has already reserved 25 slots for the non-BCS teams by virtue of the conference champions route. They get in regardless of how good they are, even if they are no where near the best 65. The better mid-majors aren't losing bids to the BCS schools, but to the likes of the Southland conference champion.
UK
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun, 2008-10-19 13:05.
I think that Kentucky will be pretty good this year with the return of Patterson, and Meeks being healthy now. Stevenson also emerged at the end of last season when patterson got hurt, and they have some talented new players in DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson. they have alot more depth this year than they did last year, and everyone is getting accustomed to gillispie's way of coaching. all in all id watch out for Kentucky, they seem to have fallen off everyone's radar, but id expect to see them right in the mix when March madness begins..
what seed do you think UK
Submitted by Shawn Siegel on Sun, 2008-10-19 16:13.
what seed do you think UK will end up getting?
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About Shawn Siegel
Columnist
Shawn Siegel - Head Editor
Contact
shawn@collegehoops.net
Background
Shawn Siegel is the self-proclaimed "hardest working man on the internet." He created CollegeHoops.net (formerly collegehoopsnet.com) back in the summer of 2002, and it has since grown into the web's largest independent college basketball site. Shawn's college basketball and NBA Draft commentary has appeared across web & print media, and he's been a featured guest on numerous radio programs.
Shawn graduated from Washington University and Washington University Law School before passing the New Jersey Bar exam.
Please email him with any and all media requests or advertising inquiries.
Location
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In the End I think the SEC
In the End I think the SEC will get two more teams in and the ACC will lose a team I think because they tend to be overrated like Wake,Virginia Tech could be the ones who slip. But other then that looks like a very legit selection. Also being an alum of the Atlantic Sun I think we will crown a new champion this year Belmont losing Justin Hare will be too much to over come and look for underachievers Jacksonville, East Tennessee State, and Campbell to make big slashes this season.
Justin Glover
Media Relations
Western Carolina University