2009 NCAA Tournament Projection: Late Summer Update

September 9th, 2008

A day after the National Title Game, I took an early stab at projecting the 2009 NCAA Tournament.. and then following the official decisions of Draft prospects, it was time for another update.. and now that the off-season has shaken itself out and kids are heading to class.. its time for the third and final summer update.


Changes Are in Red:

Temple replaces New Mexico State - Potential Aggies star Herb Pope transferred to Seton Hall. His departure, along with Passos and Hawkins means there's just not enough returning talent left. Temple is arguably the top team in the A-10 and slides into an at-large bid in my projection.

Southern Illinois replaces Drake - No real news affected this pick. And in fact, SIU just lost Joshua Bone who played significant minutes last year. But, I'm hearing that SIU's rookies are the real deal, and I'm not sold on Drake being anything more than a one year wonder.

Washington replaces Stanford - This was actually a mistake from the last article.. with both Lopez bros in the NBA, the Cardinal lack a serious frontcourt presence. But I still think they'll be better than many expect. Washington was my last team out in the last update, so was an obvious choice to make it instead.

North Dakota State replaces IUPUI - The Summit league champs were switched because on the day I put the previous list together, I hadn't heard yet that George Hill was off to the NBA.


Multi-Bid Leagues (45)
Big East (9) - UCONN - (Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC (6) - UNC - (Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
Pac-10 (5) - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Washington)
Big 12 (5) - Kansas - (Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M)
Big Ten (4) - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin)

SEC (4) - Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee)

A-10 (3) - Xavier - (Dayton, Temple)
Mountain West (2) - UNLV - (BYU)
Missouri Valley (2) - Creighton - (Southern Illinois)
Conference USA (2) - Memphis - (UAB)
WCC (2) - Gonzaga - (Saint Mary's)

One-Bid Leagues (20)
America East - Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Pacific
Horizon - Wright State
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - American
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - North Dakota State
Sun Belt - MTSU

WAC - Nevada


Last Five In: Southern Illinois, Missouri, West Virginia, Texas A&M, Ohio State

Next In Line: Washington State, New Mexico, San Diego, San Diego State, Alabama


Out: Drake, IUPUI, New Mexico State, Stanford


Out in 2nd Update: Mississippi State

Also: Check out last year's projection which had some good, bad, and ugly picks.