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Back in April, I posted my 2010-11 "Super-Early" Top 50 Ranking. Now that the Draft has passed and more recruits have found a home, it's time for an update.
Preseason rankings are always fun, and last year I actually nailed my predictions: In April of 2009, I had eventual champion Duke #1, and the other Final Four teams in the Top 10: Michigan St #5, West Virginia #9, and Butler #10.
Definitely post your thoughts on places where you agree or differ.. there's certainly many debates to be had.
2010-11 Early Top 50 Ranking: July 6th
by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor
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Team |
Apr. |
2010* |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
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Big 3 returned as expected, so Boilers will be a true national title contender. |
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2 |
3 |
2 |
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Getting Singler back was huge. Even without him, they had a top 10 roster. |
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3 |
2 |
18 |
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Morgan is the only senior, and newcomer Payne might be a better forward anyways. |
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4 |
Kansas St |
5 |
5 |
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Pullen is back, and there's more then enough returning talent to make this squad legit once again despite losing Clemente . |
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5 |
Kentucky |
18 |
4 |
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Welcome a ridiculously loaded class that includes 5 guys ranked in the Top 33 of the country according to Rivals.com. |
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6 |
8 |
19 |
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The core of the team returns intact, and Dixon has a nice new extension. |
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7 |
9 |
16 |
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Season ended on a sour note, but Cats might go into next season underrated. |
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8 |
6 |
7 |
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Gordon Hayward is gone but Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored all return. Khyle Marshall is an intriguing freshman at the same position as the departed Hayward. |
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9 |
11 |
1 |
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Added Selby since April, so get a boost there, but he can't help replace the loss of Aldrich in the middle. There is a ton of young talent hiding on the roster. |
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10 |
4 |
6 |
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Rautins & Johnson are certainly big losses. But Boeheim welcomes the Big East's top class. |
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11 |
13 |
20 |
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The loss of Turner is obviously huge, but the Buckeyes welcome another loaded Matta class. Sullinger is a rock in the middle, but Deshaun Thomas is x-factor. |
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12 |
15 |
27 |
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Despite losing Jermaine Beal, Vandy has a chance to make some serious noise in the SEC. |
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13 |
16 |
43 |
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A couple seniors depart, but this is still an improving team with some underrated freshmen joining the fold. Very dangerous squad. |
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14 |
7 |
3 |
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Will take a step back without do-everything Da'Sean Butler, but still a quality squad that is being overlooked nationally. |
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15 |
14 |
62 |
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Losing Ed Davis isn't the end of the world. Success will depend on whether the 5-star class excels or plays like the underachieving 09 crew. |
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16 |
19 |
25 |
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With everyone of note returning from the MWC champs, Aztecs are one of the best out west. |
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17 |
20 |
9 |
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Lose Chism, Prince, Maze. Tobias Harris is their name freshman, but Jordan McRae might be the true star. |
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18 |
23 |
8 |
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Fr Perry Jones tries to offset Udoh's departure, but who will replace Tweety Carter? |
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19 |
22 |
57 |
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All of the young talent will eventually gel, but the roster is still too frontcourt-heavy. |
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20 |
24 |
10 |
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With Fernandez & Allen returning, the Owls will be solid once again, but may be a tad overrated in some preseason rankings. |
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21 |
21 |
22 |
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Losing Hughes & Bohanon will hurt, but Bo Ryan always finds a way. |
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22 |
25 |
24 |
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The return of Fredette helps BYU remain MWC contenders. Tyler Haws will only get better as well. |
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23 |
Georgetown |
26 |
14 |
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Who will step up in the middle to replace Greg Monroe? The Hoyas at least welcome a solid 4-man class that should help provide much needed depth. |
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24 |
12 |
36 |
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Tristan Thompson eases the loss of Damion James, and Pittman was never that dominant to begin with. Jordan Hamilton still has star potential. |
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25 |
27 |
68 |
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Coming off a weak season, Illinois returns everyone of note along with a top-notch 3-man class. Bruce Weber has no excuses this year. |
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26 |
17 |
58 |
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If Elliot Williams returned to school, this could have been a top 10 team considering the loaded recruiting class coming in. |
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27 |
10 |
17 |
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Had Jordan Crawford returned, the Muskies might have had Top 10 aspirations. Will still be in the A-10 mix regardless. |
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28 |
28 |
44 |
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The usual FSU-type team.. good, but not great. A lot of depth, but no dominant players. |
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29 |
36 |
34 |
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Will be hard to make up for Pondexter loss. A bit overrated nationally in my opinion due to their hot finish last year. |
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30 |
29 |
41 |
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Booker is the big loss, but there's more then enough depth remaining. |
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31 |
33 |
31 |
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Harris ended up staying in school after all, which is huge. But there's not too much incoming talent to get excited about. |
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32 |
37 |
38 |
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Senior Quayle is the only loss and the Aggies are still the team to beat in the WAC. |
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33 |
NA |
59 |
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The surprise return of Malcolm Delaney catapults VT back into the Top 50 |
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34 |
35 |
72 |
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Glasser is an important loss, but Keala King has a chance to be special, and Herb Sendek knows how to coach. |
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35 |
NA |
48 |
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Everyone of not returns from a team that made the Big Dance. |
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36 |
32 |
26 |
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Kevin Anderson returns to lead the improving Spiders. Will quietly emerge in the middle of A-10 race once again. |
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37 |
38 |
23 |
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Vasquez is the big loss, but 2 other seniors leave. One of the Terps better all-around classes in recent years joins fray. |
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38 |
34 |
54 |
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Lazar Hayward is a big loss, but look out for newcomer Vander Blue. |
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39 |
43 |
28 |
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With Lee graduating, it will be up the solid core of current juniors to lead the way. |
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40 |
40 |
12 |
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Lose top 3 players, but the freshmen class is underrated, and A&M can fall back on good team D. |
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41 |
31 |
15 |
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Hobson and Martinez were the core of the team. Though the freshmen aren't bad, there will certainly be a drop from last year |
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42 |
Ole Miss |
30 |
50 |
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The Rebels always seem on the verge of making some noise, so maybe this is the year it happens. |
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43 |
50 |
86 |
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Rick Majerus quietly possesses a young roster that's quickly learning how to win games. |
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44 |
39 |
42 |
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Except for Derrick Caracter, the core of this underrated team returns. Tim Floyd is a step down though. |
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45 |
46 |
61 |
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Loss of Westbrook not that big of a deal. This team will win about 10 games in the Big Ten. |
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46 |
49 |
51 |
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Do lose their best player in Clevin Hannah, but enter the season the MVC favorite in my estimation. |
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47 |
41 |
57 |
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On the verge of becoming the Butler of the OVC? |
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48 |
45 |
103 |
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Could be an underrated squad heading into the year. Green & Mitchell have pro talent. |
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49 |
44 |
65 |
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Losing Stephenson isn't the end of the world, all the pieces for a tourney team are there. |
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50 |
UCLA |
NA |
137 |
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Despite the disappointment and turmoil, all is not lost. Josh Smith is legit. |
**2010 ranking based on Final 4 RPI
Next Ten (alphabetical)
Arizona
Nic Wise was the only senior,
but newcomer Bejarano has a chance to step in and score from day one.
Louisville
Lose Samuels, Sosa, Smith and
the newcomers aren't terribly exciting.
Mississippi St
This squad couldn't even make the dance with Varnado in the middle. His loss will be felt.
NC State (new)
The top-notch rookies should make NC State relevant once again
Northern Iowa
The core of the team is
decimated by graduation, but Jacobson will find a way.
Ohio
With Bassett & Cooper leading the way, and senior departures at other league contenders, Ohio is the team to beat in the MAC.
Oklahoma St
The recruiting class lacks one
"wow" name, but is quite good top to bottom.
St. John's
This team is on the verge of
returning to the tourney regardless of Lavin.
St Mary's
Graduations decimate the
frontcourt, but you can't deny the amount of backcourt quality that returns.
UCONN
It was only a matter of time
until UCONN's glory run slowly eroded. In the running for some star recruits
though, so that would certainly change things.
5 More to Watch
Georgia Tech (Was Top 50)
Notre Dame
VCU (Was Top 50)
Wake Forest
Wofford
Out Completely
UAB
Check back soon for CHN's Official Top 144 Preview.

They didn't get a top 25 ranking!

Feel free to stop reiterating the obvious in response to every relevant comment any day now.

Feel free to stop reiterating the obvious in response to every relevant comment any day now.

I think these rankings look pretty good. I only have a handful of reactions. I think Duke has to be #1 at this point. If you are the reigning champs, I think the burden is on the other teams to show they are clearly better. And the other teams just can't do that right now. Duke, Mich. St. and Purdue are all right there very close to each other, and so the tie should go to the reigning champs.
Kentucky in the top 5 is a little high right now. I realize they have an incredible class coming in, but until they step onto the court and prove they are ready to play at the next level, I think I'd tone down expectations to closer to the top 15 or top 20.
Kansas St., Pitt, Nova, Syracuse, Kansas, and Ohio St., I think you can put those in any order from 4-9. I think Butler is a little high without their best player, and I think I'd bump UNC, Florida and Baylor up a little bit right to the 10-15 range, maybe with Kentucky and Butler getting pushed back closer to 14 or 15 or so.
I'd probably also want to flip flop Gtown and WVU. I don't see the Mountaineers being top 15 good after their losses, and I don't think losing Monroe will cripple Gtown as much as some people are saying. Chris Wright and Austin Freeman will be one of the best backcourts not named Duke this year.

You mean Gtown has the best backcourt not named Duke or OHIO.

Where are the Rhody Rams? They will have the deepest team in the A10. Also the have two 1st team A10 calibar players in Delroy James and Akeem Richmond. Granted the A10 will be the deepest it has been in years, but the Rams will finish in the top 3, which easily puts them in the top 50 in the nation....

The post asking "Where's Rhode Island" opens an interesting aspect to Shawn Siegel's predictions. Siegel probably does a good job on the typical top teams in the nation and with 347 teams to analyze you have to choose your spots for in-depth analysis carefully. Nonetheless Siegel's misses on URI have been notable. Missing a prediction by 100 positions is understandable, but doing it two years in a row is an eye opener. In '08-'09, Siegel picked the Rams to finish about 160 and their final RPI was 68. Siegel had another go last year when he predicted URI at 140 and the Rams finished at #40.
Two successive bad misses on URI as well as bad misses on other schools should have automatically triggered a deeper evaluation. So like most other basketball services, Siegel does a good job with the tried and true, the "big names" in college basketball, but the college basketball public needs so much more.

Where is Siena in this?

You need to look at Missouri State. All five starters back from a 24-win team that won the CIT and led the nation in home wins. Definitely room for two Missouri Valley teams in your top 50 ... Previous post on Siena is spot on. What more does Siena have to do to prove its legitimacy?

I'll admit my bias, but I don't see how you can't have Duke at preseason #1, especially over Purdue, a team Duke has beat the last two seasons. Yes, Duke lost Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas, but they also return a pre-season National Player of the Year candidate and Final Four Most Outstanding Player in Singler plus Nolan Smith, not to mention several other key returning players. On top of that Seth Curry is now eligible to play (and every report says he's scary good) and they're bringing in the top freshman point guard in the nation in Kyrie Irving. The only real question mark with Duke is how much the Plumlee brothers have improved, but the backcourt should be the best in the country.

Ohio may be a good pick, but Armon Bassett will not be a part of it... He was signed by the New Orleans Hornets after remaining eligible for the NBA Draft and going undrafted.

Your nuts leaving Dayton off this list. Chris Wright was just named a the # 19 player by Gotlieb. 2nd $ 4th best players also back. They blew threw 4 straight BCS teams in the road. They will be top 25 early into the season

How can you put Murray at 47 and Vandy at 12 when Murray beat Vandy in the tourney. I know Murray lost 2 good players and Vandy only lost one and it's a new season so I'm not arguing that Murray should necessarily be ahead of Vandy but there is no doubt the 2 should at least be a little closer together in the rankings.

You better take a long look at them. I'm not a UGA fan but they will be Dawggone tough next year.

UMIAMI should be in the top 50. ended the year great in the ACC tourny and bring back a lot of players, though collins loss will hurt. I expect Durand Scott to become and All-American player on this squad

In April and in the new poll, you list Tyler Haws as a reason for BYU's potential success. Tyler Haws is not going to be playing for the next two years as he's going on his Mormom mission.

UNLV will need the services of Tre'von Willis this year and that is extremely unlikely as he is facing some serious legal issues. Also, Dayton will be at or near the top of the A-10 this year - good recruits and solid players returning. URI may have been "missed" over the past two seasons but they will struggle this year. Barron's own son doesn't want to play there.

I love it how this fan thinks that Rhody is going to "struggle" this year. consider this, we have 3 starters back from last year as well as Akeem Richmond added to the starting rotation. Wake up and realize that this team is pretty deap and that they have a solid recruiting class coming in. Not in the top 50???

NCAA Football 11 is out now. I get my rosters from NCAA Football 11 Rosters. Where are you getting yours?

Duke not #1??? must be trippin

Cuse is at ten and thats just about right for the pre-season. Open up with a tough N Iowa team and early season games with Michigan, Ga Tech/Utep and Michigan State could have this Cuse team in the top 5 sooner than later. Look for a pair of 8-0 top 10 teams to meet in the early "game of the year" in MSG...Think we'll get the treat of seeing the number 2-3 team in the nation (MSU) up against a 6-7 range team in Cuse...we all know how well Jimmy B's teams play in MSG and this could once again (did it last year)put this team on a pedestal on a national stage. Kris Joseph will be a candidate for National Player of the year and this is the deepest team Cuse has had since 2003...will JB utilize all these players? Probably not , but he FINALLY has the depth that has plagued this team in previous years (especially last year)...hopefully JB learned his lesson last year that playing your backups 2.3 minutes a game will KILL you in the post season if one of your big guns goes down...Fab Melo AND Dion Waiters will be top frosh in the big east and probably amongst the best in the nation...a very deep backcourt and another great 1-2 punch at PF, C...if Joseph pans out like 315 thinks he will this team is a legit national title contender

Raymar Morgan is graduated and gone to play in Israel. What are you thinking?
Washington is better than 29 for sure. You'll see.
Shawn
I've been following you for three years now and you always underate Washington. What you call a hot finish was them playing to their ability. They had a mid season drop off but what you saw at the end was the real deal. They should be ranked about 12th I think and no lower that 15th. I wish I could bet you on this.