This time of year all
GMs of lottery bound NBA teams dream that sweet dream of winning the #1
slot in the draft lottery. However, as history has proven, getting the
#1 pick doesn’t guarantee you a franchise player – or even guarantees
you getting the best player in the draft.
Since the NBA instituted
the draft lottery in 1985, a number of the
game’s greatest players have gone #1 overall. The Knicks started things
off in that very first lottery year, drafting the face of their
franchise, Patrick Ewing, out of Georgetown. The Spurs have fared the
best in the #1 slot, drafting Navy’s David Robinson in 1987 and Wake
Forest’s Tim Duncan in 1997.
On the flip side, in my
opinion, 38% of the time (8 out of 21 years) the eventual best player in
the draft did NOT get picked first overall. This number seems
staggeringly high considering all the preparation teams take in scouting
potential draft picks. And yes, hindsight does help in second-guessing
these picks. But as revealed below, teams very often fall in love with
height and/or “upside” and ignore the most talented player in the draft
because of it.
1986
Who Went #1:
Cleveland - Brad Daugherty – North Carolina
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#27 – Detroit – Dennis Rodman – Southeastern Oklahoma State
Daugherty was by no
means a bust – he was a 5-time All-Star and a 3rd Team
All-NBA performer in 1992 – but his career was limited to only 8 seasons
due to injury. After slipping into the second round of the draft, The
Worm was one of the NBA’s greatest rebounders and hardnosed defenders.
In his 11 seasons he was an All-Star twice, Defensive Player of the Year
twice, 8 times voted onto the All-Defensive Team and twice onto the
All-NBA team. In addition he won 7 straight rebounding titles and 5 NBA
championship rings. (Another possible choice here is 4 time
All-Star Mark Price.)
1989
Who Went #1:
Sacramento – Pervis Ellison – Louisville
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#14 – Golden State – Tim Hardaway - UTEP
Never Nervous Pervis was
another player who injuries got the better of – he did play 11 years in
the League but only averaged 43 games played a season over his career.
UTEP grad Hardaway went on to have a stellar 13-year NBA career; earning
All-Star and All-NBA honors 5 times each. He averaged over 20 points
and 10 assists in back-to-back seasons for the Warriors (1992 and 1993)
and was renowned for his “killer crossover” move.
1990
Who Went #1:
New Jersey – Derrick Coleman – Syracuse
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#2 – Seattle – Gary Payton – Oregon State
D.C. had a very solid,
yet injury plagued, 15-year run in the League. He won the 1991 Rookie
of the Year award, was an All-Star once and made the All-NBA team twice
in his career. Yet, due to his immense talent and great size, his
career was a bit of a disappointment. The Glove, however, never
disappointed and will be remembered as one the great guards to ever play
the game. A sure bet Hall of Famer, Payton is still going strong after
16 seasons in the show. From 1995 to 2003, Payton dominated the guard
position at both ends of the floor – he is a 9-time All-Star, 1996
Defensive Player of the Year, 9-time First Team All-Defensive Team
honoree and a 9-time selection to the All-NBA team.
1994
Who Went #1:
Milwaukee – Glenn Robinson – Purdue
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#2 – Dallas – Jason Kidd – California
The Big Dog had a solid
11-year run in the NBA, finishing with career averages of over 20ppg and
6rpg. He also was an NBA All-Star twice. Kidd, however, is one of the
all-time greats to play the game and will definitely end up in the Hall
of Fame. A 7-time All-Star, 1995 Rookie of the Year, 7-time
All-Defensive Team honoree and a 6-time All-NBA performer, Kidd is still
performing at a very high level. He has also led the league in assists
5 times.
1995
Who Went #1:
Golden State – Joe Smith – Maryland
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#5 – Minnesota – Kevin Garnett – High School
1995 was the draft year
that the GMs should have gone with “upside” and height but four of them
passed on “The Kid”. While Smith is a solid NBA pro, Garnett has
blossomed into a franchise player and future Hall of Famer. The 2004
NBA MVP, KG is also a 9-time All-Star, has made the All-NBA team for the
past 7 years and the All-Defensive Team the past 6. He has also led the
league in rebounding for the past 3 seasons. All this accomplished and
he is only 30 years old.
1998
Who Went #1:
Clippers – Michael Olowokandi – Pacific
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#9 – Milwaukee – Dirk Nowitzki – Germany
The Candy Man could be
the biggest #1 bust in the lottery era. Sure he is still a
seven-footer, but that “upside” thing didn’t really pan out for him.
Meanwhile, the seven foot Nowitzki got the “upside” thing all figured
out. The only question is which team messed up the most on draft night
– the Clippers picking Olowokandi or the Bucks trading the draft rights
to Nowitzki along with Pat Garrity to Dallas for Robert Traylor. Dirk
has blossomed into an all-time great in Dallas, making the All-Star team
the past 5 seasons and the All-NBA team the past 6.
2001
Who Went #1:
Washington – Kwame Brown – High School
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#30 – Golden State – Gilbert Arenas – Arizona
Height and “upside”
bites another NBA team (this time Michael Jordan got bit). While it
probably isn’t fair writing off Brown considering he is only 24 years
old, it appears his game will never justify his #1 selection.
Meanwhile, the second round selection Arenas has turned into one of the
Leagues best guards. He poured in over 29ppg this season for
Washington, and is already a two-time All-Star, a two-time All-NBA
recipient and won the 2003 Most Improved Player Award.
2005
Who Went #1:
Milwaukee – Andrew Bogut – Australia
Who Should Have Gone #1:
#4 – New Orleans – Chris Paul – Wake Forest
Bogut appears that he is
going to be an above average NBA big man, so he definitely doesn’t fall
into the bust category. However, Paul has shown that he is on the fast
track to All-Star and All-NBA honors. After a fantastic rookie year
Paul ran away with the Rookie of the Year award and the best is yet to
come.
