NBA Draft Profile: The Senior Class

How many seniors will go in Round One?

In 1994, 42 college seniors were selected out of the 54 selections in the NBA draft.  However, as the draft has gotten younger and more international over the past decade, seniors have become a rare sight on draft day.   Staying in school all four years has become somewhat of a taboo among today’s elite collegiate players, as the influence of million dollar contracts, endorsement deals, agents, and prestige is larger than ever in college sports.  As a result, the number of seniors selected has dropped to an average of 20 per year in the past three NBA drafts.  While the high school stars, college underclassmen, and international talent are sure to steal the draft day stage, we take a look at some of the college seniors worthy of NBA roster spots next year.

Point Guards

Because NBA teams love size and will seemingly draft any underclassman with a big body, the pool of guards is usually the deepest position in any senior class, and this year is no different.  The top guard prospect in the senior class is Jameer Nelson, who led St. Joseph’s to an undefeated regular season.  The solid point man, who averaged 20.0 points, 5.4 assists, and shot 39% from behind the arc, has the upper body strength and quickness of former Duke star Jason Williams and will likely be a lottery pick.

Gonzaga’s Blake Stepp and Duke’s Chris Duhon are two senior point guards hoping to sneak into the latter stages of the draft’s first round and NBA teams that need steady backcourt players off the bench should take a good look at this duo.  While neither player led their team in scoring, each player was the heart and sole of Top 5 team, and does all the little things to help a team win.  Duhon averaged 10.1 points, 6.1 assists and 2.3 steals per game, while Stepp averaged 14.9 points, 6.9 assists, and was one of the best 3-point shooters in the country at 41%.  Both players are extremely intelligent decision makers, gifted passers, tenacious defenders, and neither is afraid to take the big shot.  Duhon has drawn comparisons to Golden State Warriors guard Speedy Claxton, while Stepp brings a Jon Barry-esque game to the NBA.

Xavier’s Lionel Chalmers, Memphis’ Antonio Burks, and Washington State’s Marcus Moore lead another crop of senior point guards hoping to hear their names called on draft day.  Chalmers is Xavier’s do-it-all point guard, Burks led Conference USA in steals and assists, and Moore has the lengthy frame and athleticism to be a Jamal Crawford type player in the NBA.  Other senior point guards that could land in the 2^nd round are Mississippi State’s Timmy Bowers, Georgia’s Rashad Wright, Seton Hall’s pure point man Andre Barrett, and Manhattan’s scoring machine, Luis Flores.

Shooting Guards

As the NBA has evolved, teams have replaced spot-up jump shooters with “slashers”, athletic players that can get to the rim and finish in traffic.  This has put a premium on guys that can both slash to the hole and shoot consistently from the outside and this year’s senior class includes several players with both these skills.  Because of their size, Texas Tech’s Andre Emmett, Xavier’s Romain Sato, and DePaul’s Delonte Holland each have a great shot to be selected early in the 2^nd round of the NBA draft.  In addition to leading their respective teams in scoring, each player is 6’5” or taller, which allows them to effectively defend NBA 2-guards and rebound well from the perimeter. 

The remaining group of senior shooting guards is slightly undersized, but their athleticism and shooting ability could land them in the later stages of the NBA draft this June.  This includes the Big 12 trio of Ricky Paulding (Missouri), Brandon Mouton (Texas), and Tony Allen (Oklahoma St.), who are pure scorers and each gifted enough to make an NBA roster on athleticism alone.  It also includes shooters like Kentucky’s Gerald Fitch and Florida State’s Tim Pickett, who each shot over 40% from three-point range this season.  And a sleeper pick to be a late draft selection is Pittsburgh’s Julius Page, whose “shut-down” perimeter defense seems to be a lost art in the NBA.

Small Forwards

There are few senior small forwards that are attracting NBA draft attention, but those few are each talented enough to make an impact on the right NBA team next year.  Oregon’s Luke Jackson has all the tools to be a key contributor at the “3” slot.  Jackson is a natural scorer who can put the ball in the hoop from the low post, off the dribble, or with the outside shot.  The 6’7” senior averaged 21.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game while shooting a scorching 44% from behind the arc for the Ducks this season.  He has the potential to be a Brent Barry type player at the next level.

Vanderbilt’s Matt Freije was college basketball’s version of the Dallas Maverick’s Dirk Nowitzki this season.  The 6’10” senior was the SEC Preseason Player of the Year and possesses a European-style finesse that is tough to defend when combined with his size.  The heart and sole of the Commodores, Freije averaged 18.7 points per game on a variety of turnaround jumpers from the post and long-range bombs from 3-point range.  Similarly, Miami’s Darius Rice (17.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg) has an effective inside-outside game, and though the rail thin scorer needs to add strength, he has great athleticism and ball-handling skills for someone who is 6’10”.  Both players could see significant playing time on NBA teams next year.

Post Players

The most talented senior big man in college basketball is BYU center Rafael Araujo, who should be a first round pick.  The 280-pound Brazilian (18.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg) uses a rare combination of strength and touch to score in bunches from the low post and could start next year for the right NBA team.  In addition, Araujo has great hands for a big man, allowing him to collect rebounds in traffic and come up with steals on the defensive end.

The remaining post players available in the senior class are an array of “bangers”, physical players who bring toughness, rebounding, and hustle to the paint, despite having some flaws in their overall game.  The most developed offensive player in this group is Missouri’s Arthur Johnson who shot 55% from the field in averaging 16.0 points and 7.5 rebounds for Quinn Snyder’s team.  The 6’9” 270-pound Johnson lacks quickness, but has a wide frame that he knows how to use to get position and has developed a nice jump-hook. 

There are also several dominant rebounders available such as Cal State Fullerton’s raw but athletic Pape Sow (17.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg) and Texas’ effective (11.0 rpg) but undersized (6’8”, 220 lbs) rebounder, James Thomas.  LSU’s Jaime Lloreda is a beast in the paint (16.9 ppg, 11.6 rpg), appearing to be a less explosive version of former LSU star Stromile Swift, while Western Kentucky’s 6’11” 320-pound Nigel Dixon (15.9 ppg, 10.3 rpg) has the size and frame to be an effective NBA player if he can control his weight.  Likewise, Dayton 7-footer Sean Finn is another project that needs to add strength to contribute in the NBA, but will likely be drafted on size alone. 

Finally, a sleeper pick to be a late 2^nd round selection is Providence’s 6’11” center, Marcus Douthit.  The casual fan may look at his somewhat paltry numbers (7.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg), but NBA teams will see that Douthit has a lengthy frame with a huge wingspan that has allowed him to become one of the premier shot blockers (3.2 blocks/game) in college basketball.  His offensive game needs work and he needs to get stronger, but his defensive ability could get him drafted, just as Philadelphia 76ers big man Samuel Dalembert, who had similar numbers and a similar style game, was drafted in 2001.

How many first-round seniors?

In recent years, NBA teams have had a tendency to draft mainly on size and potential, leaving most of the senior prospects falling to the 2^nd round.  Only the blue chip seniors are worthy of a first round selection, and this year the senior class could have as few as 3 players taken in the NBA’s only guaranteed contract round, which would be the fewest ever.  Jameer Nelson appears to be a lock to go in the top half of the first round, and it’s hard to envision someone of Rafael Araujo’s size and skill falling to round two.  Luke Jackson should also be drafted in the mid-twenties range, although a cold-shooting night at a pre-draft workout could hurt his status.  On the contrary, there always seems to be a player that lights it up at the Chicago Pre-Draft camp and jumps several spots to end up as a late first round pick.  The senior class has several likely candidates including Tony Allen, Blake Stepp, Andre Emmett, Jaime Lloreda, and Matt Freije.  Look for one of these players to have a great workout, impress scouts and jump into the end of the first round or very early second round.  Overall, look for 4 or 5 seniors to go in the first round, and then a string of about a dozen seniors to go in the mid-to-late second round.

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