NBA Draft Profile: Underclassmen

Development of Skills More Valuable than Guaranteed Contracts

by Doug Enzler 

Every spring as the NBA Draft approaches, there always seems to be at least one guy that makes the wrong decision for his future by declaring as an early entry for the NBA Draft (see: Cook, Omar).  Normally, everyone who follows college basketball can foresee it as an obvious mistake, but that particular player always seems to be blinded by money and the thought of not having to attend class anymore.  Once draft day passes, this player is either struggling to get an invite to training camp as a free agent or is about to become a huge disappointment to the team that foolishly drafted him.  Either way, he’s on his way to becoming the next Joe Forte, one of the many recent early entrants to become an NBA bust. 

For every early entry success such as Carmelo Anthony and Elton Brand, there is a first round bust such as Joel Przybilla or Michael Bradley.  These first round busts occur so often because every year college underclassmen hear “you’ll be taken in the first round and get guaranteed money” from GMs and agents.  What they fail to tell these players is that after the 3-year guaranteed contract is up, if they are not ready to contribute, NBA teams are not willing to keep babysitting them on the end of their bench.  That’s because the NBA is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of league.  Sure, teams draft on potential and sometimes collegiate accomplishments, but if you don’t produce at the NBA level, you are a waiver wire claim away from playing in Turkey. 

I used to think it was a smart decision to declare early if you were a lock to be a first rounder, but after seeing countless players leave school before they were ready I have changed my tune.  I don’t buy the “well he could use another year but its guaranteed money, so why not declare early” argument anymore.  Sure, its guaranteed millions and if they are smart with it they shouldn’t have to work ever again in their lives, but from a basketball standpoint, it does not make any sense.  My feeling is that if the guy is not completely ready, then it is better off for the long-term health of his career, to stick around for more skill development in the college ranks.

That said, there are several players in this year’s draft that do appear ready to move to the next level, despite not having used all of their college eligibility.  Those include UConn’s Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, Duke’s Luol Deng and Wisconsin’s Devin Harris.  The risk of being a first round bust is still there, but these players are as good and polished as they come in college basketball and will not improve their status as Lottery selections in the Draft by staying in school for another year. 

You could even make a good argument for Kirk Snyder based on the fact that even though he could use another year, it would probably be wise to capitalize on his high stock right now after Nevada’s Sweet 16 run.  But as far as I can tell, every other underclassman has something major to gain from another year of college basketball.

Because NBA teams love size, collegiate big men are enticed to leave school early perhaps more than any other position.  However, post players are usually the least polished of all underclassmen, and usually don’t fully blossom until they’ve played 3 or 4 college seasons, which leads to a lot of “projects” and eventual busts at the next level.  Several post players that may get caught up in the early entry hype this spring are Minnesota freshman Kris Humphries, Mississippi State junior Lawrence Roberts, and Colorado junior David Harrison.  To Humphries’ credit, he probably does have an NBA body already, but could certainly improve his footwork and post defense.  Similarly, Roberts and Harrison have been able to beat most opponents with size and athletic ability rather than with skills, and that will catch up with them at the next level if they leave early. 

That brings us to Syracuse junior Hakim Warrick.  The rail-thin Orangeman with the huge wingspan is one of the best defensive players in the draft, but needs to add some bulk to be able to bang with the big boys.  He also needs to be able to consistently knock down the 17-20 foot jumper, because with his current frame he will have a tough time scoring in the paint at the next level.  However, Warrick is projected as a top 20 pick, so despite these weaknesses in his game, it will be difficult for anyone to convince him to stay in school for another year.

It is always dangerous for players to leave school early if they are considered “tweeners” by NBA standards, players that are talented but don’t particularly fit into any one NBA position.  This can depend on size, shooting ability, ball handling skills, or simply style of play.  Some tweeners are able to make a living in the NBA (see: Juan Dixon), while others aren’t given much of a chance to succeed (see: Shawn Respert).  So as a general rule, it is best for underclassmen that fall into this category to go back to school to improve the skills necessary to fit into an NBA position. 

This year’s list of underclassmen tweeners includes Arizona’s Andre Iguodala, Providence’s Ryan Gomes, Stanford’s Josh Childress, and UConn’s Charlie Villanueva.  The 6’6” Iguodala, who played small forward in college, will likely be a shooting guard in the NBA due to his height, yet he shot only 31% from behind the arc this season.  Likewise, Gomes has played mostly in the low post thus far in his collegiate career, but will likely play small forward in the NBA, despite shooting only 33% from three-point range this season. Childress does have good shooting touch (39% from 3-pt range), but the 6’8” 205 pound junior needs to add bulk to play the small forward position in the NBA.  And Villanueva, who considered entering the draft out of high school last year, played only 19 minutes a game for the Huskies this season, mostly on the interior.  As a future NBA small forward, he needs a year to develop that go-to scorer’s mentality, and to improve his outside shot and ball-handling skills (1/1.7 Assist/Turnover ratio).

As rare a sight as college seniors have become on draft day, there are several players who have made the right decisions in the past and wisely decided to return for another year.  John Wallace (Syracuse’96), Shane Battier (Duke’01) and Kirk Hinrich (Kansas’03) considered leaving school early, but all decided to return and were each rewarded with a trip to the National Championship game during their senior season (Battier’s team won it).  In addition, Tim Duncan (Wake Forest’97), Jason Gardner (Arizona’03) and Jameer Nelson (St. Joe’s’04) each made wise decisions, coming back to school as seniors to lead their teams to fabulous seasons.  It will be interesting to see what decisions are made in the next two months – some players will stay in school with the chance to improve their skills and lead their teams to new heights in 2005, while some others will leave early and struggle to survive in the NBA.

MORE 2004 NBA DRAFT COVERAGE