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By
Shawn Siegel
collegehoopsnet@aol.com
June 14th, 2005
NBA Draft Mailbag
Each week, Shawn Siegel, CHN's NBA Draft
expert answers fan questions in the NBA Draft
Mailbag. Siegel receives emails each and every day from fans
trying to find out about their favorite player or favorite team.
***
Dear Shawn,
One guy who has received a lot
of very positive reviews is Roko-Leni Ukic. From what you have
heard do you think he will be coming over to play in the NBA next season
and if so, how long do you think it will take him to become a productive
player.
Thanks.
Ben
Los Angeles, CA
Ben,
Right now Leni-Ukic is
projected to be a late 1st round pick, and he could be a potential
steal. A similarly ranked player in last year's draft, Beno Udrih,
has seen significant time from day one as the Spurs back up point guard.
Ukic is even better, and his only main fault is his jumper which should
develop over time. There is some question about Ukic will be able
to bought out from his club team, KK Split, but at 400 to 500k, this
should not be a problem. Another possibility is that he gets
picked, but the NBA team lets him stay overseas to play for a year or
two. The Nets did this with Nenad Krstic, and he became a big time
contributor in his first NBA season. With two picks in the first
round, the Jazz could be a team looking to do this.
***
Dear Shawn,
What do you think is going to
happen to Chris Paul on Draft
Day.
Thanks,
Kyle
New Orleans, LA
Kyle,
Right now, there are a few basic
options for Paul. The Hawks surprise everyone by taking Paul with the
2nd pick, allowing the Blazers to ecstatically take Marvin #3, and the
Hornets taking their rumored favorite in
Deron Williams. Odds:
About 10%
The second option is that the
Hawks take Williams as planned, putting the Blazers in a tough spot. They
don't really a need a point guard, so they'd most likely spring for
Gerald Green, causing Paul to
drop to 4th or 5th.
If Williams goes #2, the Blazers
may also trade the pick. If this happens, expect whatever team it is that
moves up to take Paul #2. Odds: 25%
If the Blazers do take Green #3,
the Hornets are then up with the 4th pick. Rumor has it that the
Hornets prefer Deron Williams (which I can't understand), in which case the
Bobcats would love to take Paul with the 5th pick. Odds: 30%
Lastly, the Deron at #4 rumors
prove to be bogus, and the Hornets simply take the better player in Paul at
#4. Odds: 35%
***
Dear Shawn,
I heard that the hawks would take
Marvin Williams instead of
Chris Paul a point guard which is what they need. Do you think that is a
smart move considering that they have Al Harrington, Josh Smith, and Josh
Childress.
Aubrey Smith
Atlanta, GA
Aubrey,
Just about everyone assumes at
this point that the Hawks will in fact take Williams with the 2nd pick in
the draft. Why do this when the Hawks are already loaded at the small
forward position? For the same reason that Hawks decided to bring in
Harrington and Antoine Walker, while also drafting Smith and Childress:
Which is that the Hawks are so desperate for talent that they don't actually
have much of a plan besides taking anyone who can dunk a ball.
***
Dear Shawn.
I was wondering what the statistics are regarding the percentage of picks
who actually play more than 50 games in the show. If you just went by
internet prognosticators, there would be 70 guys a year who make the jump. I
want you to tell me who from this years prospects rated 45-60 won't play in
the NBA. Thanks, love the website.
No name,
I was intrigued by your question,
so I've gone back and done a little research (albeit unscientific research).
I devoted a decent amount of time to answering this question, and it is the
subject of today's Daily Dribble, so
feel free to check out that link. I focused on looking at the 2000
Draft, which although it is known as a bad draft, I used because it gives 5
seasons to work with, a nice number to average.
***
Dear Shawn,
First, how does one become an
NBA analyst, or in particular, a scout? I ask because I read you a lot as
well as many others, and quite often than not they are wrong. Most
notorious is ESPN's Chad Ford, who constantly big-ups foreign players to
be again proven wrong, i.e. Skita in Denver and Darko.
Another No Name,
This is a great question.
Being an analyst or a scout or a movie critic or a restaurant reviewer or
anything in this realm is quite easy. You simply need to convince
others that you know what you are talking about. How does one do
this? For one, you can make all types of predictions, and prove your
knowledge by the percentage of your predictions that come true. This
is what I always tell people who write emails questioning my knowledge.
Simply look at my past predictions, my past statistical projections, past
rankings, past whatever, and see yourself how they stack up against
reality (or against other analysts.) In this respect, I'd put myself up
against anyone else. What else is needed besides making good
predictions? Well, you need to be a good communicator, either verbally or
orally depending upon the medium. You can be the greatest basketball
mind in the world, but if the public questions whether you know English,
they won't take your answer seriously. The best analysts also should
be able to add insight in seemingly bland places, and perhaps add a tinge
of humor or intrigue. What does all this add up to? Being a magician
of sorts, using smoke and mirrors to convince people to pay attention to
what you have to say.
***
Sean May
Questions
***
Dear
Shawn,
Do you think Sean May
will be a good pick for the Warriors? I love his strong, yet soft
hands and inside presence.
Thanks,
Tony
Napa, CA
Tony,
Everyone (rightfully) fell in love
with May following UNC's tournament run. But is he really worth a #9
pick? For a player who does virtually all his damage down low, a 6-9
260 pound frame is not going to impress the scouts. But, many GM's are
still slapping themselves for passing on another 6-9, 260 pound ACC player:
Carlos Boozer. I believe that May can develop into a similar type of
player statistically as Boozer, averaging 14 and 8 or 9 boards per game down
the line. However, it would shock me if the Warriors used their pick
on May, who should more likely drop into the mid-teens.
***
Dear
Shawn,
I see Sean May and
Rashad McCants could potentially drop out of the Lottery.
Everybody wants to play the "bad-attitude" card with McCants, but he
never punched someone in the privates like Chris Paul. What's
going to happen with McCants and May?
Thanks,
Timothy Still
Charlotte, NC
Timothy,
I've said for a long time that
McCants so-called attitude problem has been overblown for quite some time.
No NBA team is worried about McCants attitude, and he is only on the first
round fence because of his size. No one is overly impressed with a
6-3/4 shooting guard, let alone one who is considered more of a natural
scorer, and not a pure shooter. The fact is that if McCants played on
lets say Virginia or Maryland, and not on a team with so many other scorers,
he would be a lock for having averaged over 20 points per game this season,
and would have had a better chance to showcase his talents. Still, I
think h In terms of May, I would say there's about a 95% chance that
he goes between the 13th and 17th picks in the draft, as he fits well with
all the teams in those positions,
If you have a question
which you'd like Shawn to answer, email
collegehoopsnet@aol.com
He’ll post and answer as many questions as possible. Please
include your first name and home town when contacting Shawn.
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