Andrew Bogut
“I often wondered if Rick Majerus brought along Bogut
slowly as a freshman, just so that he’d stick around for another year. Bogut
could have put up 18 a game as a freshman if he was allowed, and would have
scored even more points on a team with better weapons. While he still lacks
the toughness you want out of an NBA center, he should be a lock to score
around 16 points and 10 rebounds per game within just a couple of seasons in
the NBA.”
Ike Diogu
“Diogu has nothing left to prove in college, beyond
showing that he can single-handily will a team to the NCAA tournament. Even
if Diogu returns, ASU won’t make the Big Dance, so I would have to imagine
Diogu will eventually sign with an agent and focus on the draft. It’s hard
to imagine a player like Channing Frye or Danny Granger go much higher than
Diogu in the draft, and I think his stock in media mock drafts is lower
because no one is sure what he will do. Diogu has the most developed
offensive game of any college player in the draft outside of Andrew Bogut.”
Monta Ellis
“The only thing keeping Ellis in contention for the
first round, is that this year’s prep class is inferior to last year’s, and
its almost like GM's feel that there has to be a few high school guys in the
1st round at this point. His one saving grace as opposed to Louis
Williams, is that teams feel he can be molded into a workable NBA point
guard. However, its hard to imagine Ellis ever getting off the bench for at
least 2 seasons if he goes pro. he doesn't have near the talent as
recent high school to NBA projects such as Travis Outlaw or Dorrel Wright,
who have yet to see serious playing time as pros.”
Raymond Felton
“I’ve been enamored with Felton’s speed since the
first day he suited up for Carolina. The biggest question with Felton is
simply his overall decision-making skills. He’s averaged over 3.4 turnovers
per game in each of his three college seasons, and often makes the same
mistakes he made as a freshman. One thing you have to like is his
progression in the half-court offense, as he’s continually worked on his
shot and has improved from a 40% shooter as a freshman, to 42% as a
sophomore, and 46% last year. I’ve seen mock drafts list Felton as low as 13th
or 14th, but it still seems likely the Knicks or Lakers will grab
him before then.”
Channing Frye
“Frye’s stock really grew towards the latter part of
the season, although statistically he was pretty similar to his junior
season. If you’ve ever seen Frye play, you can tell in just a few seconds
that he’s the classic tweener stuck between being a forward and a center.
Frye’s got nice soft hands for a big guy, but he’ll really earn his bread in
the NBA by proving that he can use his long arms to be a force in the zone
defense. Lots of teams are looking for size in this draft, and Frye makes
sense for a lot of teams like the Nets or Charlotte who are picking in the
middle of the 1st round.”
Francisco Garcia
“Remember Reece Gaines? Neither do I. The fact is that
outside of Coach K, Rick Pitino is the best coach in college basketball, and
he sometimes makes players seem better than they really are. No doubt Garcia
has a bit of toughness and leadership qualities that Gaines didn’t have, but
the question is, what does Garcia do better than other guys? The answer is,
nothing really, and he should be prepared for a career on the bench or
overseas."
Ryan Gomes
“It’s hard to imagine how Providence managed to lose
so many games with Gomes scoring 20 points and hauling down 8 rebounds on a
consistent basis. After his workouts in contemplation of last year’s draft,
Gomes certainly decided to take his game in a more expanded direction. He
lost some weight, and looked better than ever heading into the season, and
improved his outside shot to prove to scouts he could score in other ways
than just showing off his touch down low. After not hitting a single three
in his first two seasons, Gomes had developed his range to the point that he
shot 38% from behind the arc. He’s probably one of the most overlooked guys
in the draft, and is sitting on the 1st Round fence. For my
taste, I’d take Gomes over other college players like Simien or Garcia.
Gomes does not have the potential to ever be a star in the NBA, but he could
be a valuable asset for a team that needs offensive help in the half-court.”
Joey Graham
“Graham is certainly a physical specimen, who
impresses with his size and leaping ability. But his pure strength and
athleticism will be less of an advantage against NBA forwards who all
possess those qualities. Scouts like Graham’s soft touch and range out to 20
feet, where he can be a bonus stretching the defense. He’s even shot over
47% from three the last two seasons, giving GM’s some numbers to drool over.
Perhaps Graham’s biggest fault is that because he’s already played a few
years of college ball, and already seems to have peaked physically, it’s
hard to imagine him ever getting that much better than he is now.”
Danny Granger
“Granger played the best ball of his whole career in
this year’s MWC tournament, leading New Mexico into the Big Dance.
Statistically, he does it all and has done it all for the past three
seasons. He’s worked hard over the years to extend his range, as he used to
score almost every one of his baskets down low. Granger usually has a knack
for getting to the free-throw line, and he backs that up by being a very
solid 75% free-throw shooter. Perhaps the thing that jumps off his stat
sheet the most is that he averaged over 2 blocks and 2 steals per game as a
senior. These numbers are not really inflated by playing against lesser
talent, but he just is a very intense and focused defender. Granger is the
best of the senior forwards (Warrick, Simien, Graham) and should drop no
lower than 20th.”
Gerald Green
“Green’s stock kept rising as the year went on, and
peaked around the March all-star games. I might be more gung ho on Green
than some other guys, but from a pure physicality standpoint, it’s hard to
ask for much more. I’m also extremely intrigued by the fact that Green was a
late bloomer, who only became a commodity on the national scene at the 2004
ABCD Camp. Since that time, Green has only gotten better and better, and it
only seems likely that he will get better and better in the coming years.
Teams who pass on Green for the likes of a Deron Williams or a big European
will most likely look foolish a few years down the line.”
Sean May
“If May hadn’t gotten hurt his freshman year, Matt
Doherty would probably still be the head coach at North Carolina today. Of
course May had the big NCAA tournament but he really turned on his game back
at the end of January. May’s lack of height shouldn’t be too much of a
problem, and could really surprise people with his ability to transition
into the NBA game like Carlos Boozer did. It’s hard to imagine May dropping
below Indiana with the 17th pick, and he should be gone before
other college forwards like Warrick and Graham.”
Rashad McCants
“McCants’ ability to score has never been doubted, but
it will much tougher for him making the transition to the NBA because of his
size. He’s not really a traditional two-guard, and teams often would rather
have scorers at the three, but pure shooters at the two. Much was made about
McCants’ attitude adjustment this past year, but whatever problems he had in
the past were generally overrated. For him to ever develop into a big-time
scorer in the NBA, he’ll need to work on catching and shooting coming off
curls, or shooting off the dribble. McCants seems like he'd fit best on
teams like Dallas, Phoenix, or Golden State now who love to score the ball."
Chris Paul
“Charlotte would be very happy to take Paul with the 3rd
pick. In some ways, his statistics this past season look disappointing, as
they were very similar across the board to his freshman season with
just a lower fg%. Don’t let the numbers fool you though, most of his low
output games were in large wins against lesser teams, and he only had one or
two bona fide off games all season. Even though Williams and Felton may also
go in the top 10, Paul is better than those guys by a comfortable margin.
One of only a few potentially special talents in this draft.”
Brandon Rush
“Brandon is easily the most overlooked high school
prospect out there right now. No doubt in my mind that he will end up being
a better pro than a Monta Ellis or Louis Williams. Those guys put up better
scoring numbers in high school, but Rush was on a stacked Mount Zion team.
Besides Gerald Green, Rush could end up being the most devastating offensive
player in his class, even better than the highly touted Martell Webster.
Rush’s work ethic has always been put in question, but scouts should be more
worried about his youthful physique than his youthful head. If he ends up in
college, he could be a legitimate 20 point scorer by his sophomore year.
Doesn’t quite have the pure physicality like a Green, nor the polish of a
Webster, but he has a knack for scoring the ball that simply can’t be
overlooked.”
Wayne Simien
“Similar to fellow Big 12 forward Joey Graham,
Simien’s greatest asset in college has always been his mature, physically
developed body. The questions about Simien are the same you ask about most
college to NBA forwards: when you take away the pure physical advantage,
what can he really do that great? So much of Simien’s success at Kansas was
about overpowering guys down low, so he’ll need to refine his post moves,
and work on moving without the ball. It would also be nice if he could be an
inch or two taller or be a better shot blocker. And of course, you have all
the questions about his injury-prone past. Even if Simien manages to stay
healthy for the rest of his career, he will never be a consistent starter in
the NBA.”
Chris Taft
“By this point, I truly thought Taft would have a more
developed game. 13 points and 8 boards per game is nice and all, but at 6-10
260, Taft had the body to dominate college forwards. But he never seemed to
find a go-to move, or really even any moves period, in the post. Plus, Taft
doesn’t seem to play with any semblance of emotion or passion. Even back in
high school, he looked like the Clippers’ Chris Wilcox, but he hasn’t shown
you anything at this point to think that he’s anything but a slightly worse
version of Wilcox. I often wonder why a team would take Taft over an
Ike Diogu.”
Ronny Turiaf
“As good as Turiaf was at Gonzaga, it always seemed
like he never lived up to his potential. Constant injuries played a big
part, as did foul trouble in big games. Turiaf simply has more natural
talent than a fellow big man like Wayne Simien, but if he can’t make it
through a college season, how can he make it through an 82 game NBA season?
Regardless of the injury risk, he’s too good of a talent, and big man who
can bang down low are too high of a priority, for him to drop into the 2nd
round.”
Charlie Villanueva
“Villanueva considered coming straight to the NBA, but
he made the smart decision to go to college because scouts saw too many
weaknesses in his game at the time. No doubt Villanueva has improved some,
but the fact is that he should simply be better than a guy who averages 13
ppg, and only shows up two out of every three games. When Villanueva was in
high school, I used to think he was just really lazy, but over time I
realized that he simply is not that quick. Unlike a guy his size like
Chhanning Frye, Villanueva does not run the floor well, and will make his
living down in the post. Villanueva should be picked between the 12th
and 18 picks, and projects to be a Corliss Williamson type player
statistically with a few more rebounds thrown in for good measure.”
Hakim Warrick
“Everyone knows Warrick can finish as well as anyone
out there, but NBA teams will need more from him to warrant being a top 15
pick. Most likely, he will fall to the 20-25 range, because of questions
teams have about his strength, overall offensive game, and who he’ll be able
to guard in the NBA. For as high as Warrick jumps, and has long as he is,
it’s amazing he didn’t even average a block per game this past season.
Everybody remembers the big play he made in the Championship game, but
Warrick has never been able to block many shots. He doesn’t have the
strength to guard power forwards down low, so he’ll be asked to guard guys
on the perimeter which he’s not used to doing. Of course, the zone will help
him out in that respect. Warrick seems best suited to be a role player in
the NBA.”
Martell Webster
“Outside of Gerald Green, Webster is really the only
other can’t miss high school prospect in the draft. At 6-7 230, Webster has
a perfect body for playing shooting guard in the NBA. He’s got a smooth
stroke and a better mid-range game than you’d expect from a high school
prospect. The biggest adjustment he’ll need to make heading to the NBA is
that he’ll need to prove to defenders that he can beat them off the dribble,
or he’ll find it very hard to create space for open shots. Webster’s prep
career peaked exactly when you want it to, right at the end, and it’s
amazing how often the guys who look the best in the post-season all-star
games end up being the guys who have success in the NBA.”
Deron Williams
“The NBA is no doubt a man’s game, and its still hard
to picture Williams being that successful with the body he has. If you
consider that Jameer Nelson is just about good enough to be a 6th
man, its hard to imagine Williams being anything greater than a 6th
man or a fringe starter. You have to love the fact that he really took
control of his team in March, averaging over 8 assists per game during
Illinois’ finals run. However Williams’ game still offers as many questions
as answers. Can he shoot above 42% in the NBA? Can he hit his free throws
consistently? Does he have consistent NBA range?”
Louis Williams
“It’s hard to figure that Williams will go in the
first round, but he might be an underrated commodity at this point. Williams
can score with the best of them, but he didn’t have a particularly strong
showing in the all-star game “sweeps” period, and at 6-2 teams want him to
play the point. His best bet at success in the NBA is going to college and
proving to scouts that he can become a Ben Gordon-like offensive spark."