Adam Glatczak writes the "Wednesday Onions" column for CollegeHoopsnet.  Bookmark the "Wednesday Onions" homepage and come back each week!

Onions

-Didn’t see much of that Kentucky-Mississippi State game, but wow, what a finish! The Bulldogs had two one-and-ones in the final seconds and most the front end on both…once again, another team loses because it can’t hit free throws.

-If college basketball had a Heisman Trophy, I’d be sending my vote in right now for Taylor Coppenrath. The last two times I’ve seen him and his team play on the tube, the Vermont forward has scored 38 at UCLA and now 41 against Northeastern. Watching his inside and outside game, it’s pretty hard to convince me that Coppenrath couldn’t be a star on any college team in the country. He’s not the most athletic guy out there, but the way he schooled two pretty athletic teams in UCLA and, to a little lesser extent, Northeastern…without a doubt, he’s a player and has to receive All-America consideration.

-With all this talk about the Big 10 and Pac-10 conferences potentially not filling their usual “quota” of NCAA bids, some are thinking that opens up more bids for leagues like the MAC or WAC. As Joe Lunardi said on ESPN.com, don’t bet on it. In addition to his point about bids likely just being redistributed to other BCS conferences, the fact is there weren’t many teams outside the top 10 conferences that did much to stand out in non-conference play. That means they won’t have the profile to get to the NCAAs unless they go on obscene runs in their conference…and even then, it may be doubtful.

Just some review of the at-large possibilities outside the BCS leagues: Conference USA should do fine, but the Mountain West has Utah and maybe BYU, likely no one else. Rice, Nevada and UTEP from the WAC all have a shot, but one would be stunned if all three made it. They and other contenders like Boise State, Hawaii and Fresno State will also cannibalize each other in conference enough where you probably won’t see more than two from that league. The Atlantic 10 has St. Joseph’s and maybe Xavier, Dayton and/or Rhode Island, but you almost surely won’t see all four.

It gets much worse outside those four leagues (and C-USA, MWC and A-10 usually get multiple bids, anyways). Creighton of the MVC should be set, as long as it doesn’t collapse (say, .500 the rest of the year), while Western Michigan is in the same position in the MAC, thanks to a nice non-conference run. Of course there’s also Gonzaga from the WCC. But those are the only three close to a sure thing. Murray State could be close, but will certainly have to win the OVC, and likely with no more than three losses in league. Ditto with Utah State in the Big West-a win over BYU and an 11-1 record are good, but the Aggies still will need to win the league to think about an at-large possibility. Both Murray and USU had great non-league records and a few good wins/good losses, though, so they have a shot.

Otherwise, the only chances these leagues have is if someone gets ridiculously hot in league play, and even the number of teams that could do that and receive consideration is slim. A second MVC or MAC team could make it (Southern Illinois or Kent State most likely) if it runs through conference and has no more than 6-7 losses at the end of the year. Neither SIU nor Kent have much for a big win, though. Boston U., Charleston and Manhattan are a few other candidates, but again, they would need to almost win out the rest of the regular season. That’s simply not going to happen, and if it does, it probably still won’t get rewarded if they lose in their conference tourney.

There just weren’t many big non-conference wins by the top teams in these conferences this year. Most who pulled upsets were either teams just below the top or even in the middle of the pack (ex.: Northern Iowa, Western Carolina) and those teams were inconsistent and/or didn’t capitalize enough on these big wins. Charleston, Southern Illinois, Kent State and Manhattan were just a few who blew most of their best chances at marquee wins, and without one, it’s going to be very, very difficult for them to get in the NCAAs unless they thoroughly dominate their conferences. Some of it is due to these teams not coming up big in their biggest games, and some might be because they aren’t good enough, period. Of course, it also has some to do with a lack of these statement games to begin with, and once again, this is what happens when the exempted tournaments are all but cut out as they were this year, and when BCS leagues simply keep all their scheduling to either guarantee games or else playing the other BCS conferences. It’s getting harder and harder for teams from leagues like the Horizon or MAC to get realistic chances at wins that could have shelf life for the entire season.

-He might be getting near the end of his career, and some will wonder what the heck took me so long, but I’m beginning to come around to Lute Olson. His cheap stunt where he skipped traveling to St. Joseph’s several years ago not withstanding, he’s actually one of the funnier guys out there for coaches. You just don’t see it that often. Get past that ultra-calm, ultra-cool look, though, and Lute is actually not quite as perfectly clean-cut or PC as he looks like he should be. He has a bit of smart aleck in him, and that’s good. While watching the Arizona-St. Mary’s game on TV a few weeks back, he was caught for what could’ve been another of those typically awful halftime interviews just as the teams were leaving the floor. With his team getting much, much more than it wanted from the Gaels, Lute was naturally pretty steamed, and you expected that to come out in the interview…and it kind of did. When asked what was going wrong, Olson said something about the second and third guys not rotating over on defense, and then he said with an assured smirk and no doubt a hint of his halftime mood, “but, uh, I think we’ll get them over there in the second half.” And now we hear the other week about Arizona State fans razzing him in the second half of the Wildcats’ blowout of ASU, and Lute points to the scoreboard. That’s funny stuff, and again, good to see some personality out of these typically boring college coaches.

-Continuing a little left coast slant, I’m still not sure what to think of Stanford. Saw the Cardinal barely beat Arizona State, didn’t see them whip Arizona, which is impressive whether you see it or not. My initial inclination is to say I don’t think this team can play much better than it is right now, so if I’m a Cardinal fan, I’m worried if this play can be sustained into March. At the same time, Mike Montgomery’s team doesn’t beat itself and reminds me a lot of Wisconsin. Not many players that just jump out at you initially, but they play together well and as a group get it done. It has the total package: lights-out shooter (Matt Lottich), versatile, athletic lead man (Josh Childress), inside brute (Rob Little), handyman role player (Nick Robinson), and a deep bench. But even with Childress back, now, I don’t think this team can get much better. That may sound blasphemous, but think of it as a tribute to how well they’re playing right now, more than a cutdown.

-It will be interesting to see how Rhode Island responds after its loss on Sunday at home to Xavier. Clearly, this was a game URI was pointing to as one that would signal its arrival in the top 2-3 of the Atlantic 10, but after a hot start by the Rams, the Musketeers put on a clinic and beat Rhody easily. Late in the game, URI started to lose its cool, with senior guard Brian Woodward getting ejected for punching a Xavier player while fighting through a screen. That went directly against the disciplined foundation Jim Baron has laid in Kingston, and he let his entire team know it. Now, Rhode Island has to regroup and get back to business, because there is still time to get some quality scalps, and 20+ wins should still get the Rams serious NCAA tourney consideration.

-What on EARTH is happening to Missouri? Coming into this year, I thought the Tigers were overrated, but this is ridiculous. Looks like there is zero chemistry on this team. It’s early, but Mizzou is getting very close to the point of playing its way out of NCAA at-large consideration. That’s how underwhelming their wins have been and how average they look right now. An NCAA quality Big 12 team playing at home should give Syracuse a better game than the Tigers did.

-Just like last year, the Atlantic Sun is going to have a tremendous race for the regular season conference title. Right now, Central Florida leads the league with a 6-0 record, while Troy State (6-1), Georgia State (5-2), Florida Atlantic (4-2), Mercer (4-2) and Belmont (3-2) are all extremely capable of winning the league. A microcosm of how competitive this will be came last week, when Troy State beat Belmont by two in overtime, then lost to Georgia State by one. It’s hard to pick a favorite: all of these teams have made some kind of national mark in the past few years, whether in the NCAAs (GSU, FAU, Troy State), by making a stunning turnaround (Mercer from 6-23 in 2001-02 to 23-6 in 02-03) or by beating big shots out of conference (Belmont over Mizzou this year, UCF over a ranked Charleston last year). Georgia State beat Auburn and Tulsa and looked great in taking care of business against Gardner-Webb on Sunday. The Panthers are probably the best bet of any league team to do damage in the postseason. Troy State beat San Diego State, while UCF is 11-2 and Florida Atlantic and Belmont are also impressive. If it weren’t for the bottom of the league being so bad, it wouldn’t be unfair for the league to expect an NIT team, in addition to the NCAA participant.

-Last week, we mentioned a number of teams who have seemingly underachieved this year. Looking for the positive, a team that has been a tremendous surprise is SE Louisiana. The Lions of the Southland Conference are 9-3, beat Tulane, and their three losses are to Alabama (by 7), Mississippi (by 4) and Western Carolina (by 1). Combined record of those three: 24-15, not bad. In fact, those games tell us what we really need to know about SLU, since four of their wins are non-Division I opponents and three more were against SWAC and MEAC teams. Doesn’t matter-anyone who knows how much this program has struggled in the past realizes that this is big. SE Louisiana scored a nice win on the road in its SLC opener at Louisiana-Monroe, and might be asserting itself as the favorite in a Southland where only Stephen F. Austin has been close to as impressive.

-Also, a call to Mississippi Valley State, the only team in the Southwestern Athletic Conference that posted a winning non-conference record. The Delta Devils are also now 3-0 in the SWAC, lead the league early and should be the conference favorite, with Southern, Texas Southern and Jackson State among those following close behind. One of their non-league wins was against Northwestern. In a 10-team league with exactly 17 non-conference wins against Division I schools this year, that’s big. (Don’t worry, at least 70% of their non-league games were on the road. Plus, 17 wins is more than the SWAC has in some years.) Unlike most SWAC schools, MVSU didn’t present a case for insanity with its non-conference schedule and even played some home games. That made it possible to came out of December with a 6-4 record (in yet another D-I vs. D-II headscratcher, one of those losses was to Division II Delta State, who the Delta Devils played a home-and-home with).

-About some other early season surprises, I’m sold on Vanderbilt, even though the Commodores didn’t play away from home until January. Vandy has the delightfully quirky Memorial Gym rocking again, and will be very hard to beat at home in the SEC. They should get some road wins, too, so the NCAAs should be in their future. Great for Kevin Stallings, who some were questioning whether he was the right man down there. Vanderbilt is interesting because it isn’t the doormat job it is portrayed to be. Every few years, the Commodores have one of those seasons where they pop up and stun the nation, but this isn’t a bad program. Oh, and a question for all of those fools who jumped Vandy Chancellor Gordon Gee for consolidating the athletic department with the rest of the university, and then hastily pointed to a bad football season as if it proved that it wasn’t working (as if Vandy is ever good in football): does the Commodores’ hoops success now prove that it’s working?

A little less high on Providence right now. I really like the Friars, and they may be even better than Vanderbilt (wouldn’t that be a great game?) but they’re living a little too close to the edge right now. One point win over Richmond, three over Seton Hall, four over Central Connecticut St. and those heartbreaking losses to Texas and Rutgers…PC needs to find more consistency within games, or it could go spiraling downward quickly in a tightly bunched Big East.

-Finally, for all us football fans in Wisconsin, what a heartbreaking way to see our Packers’ season end. All they needed was a stop on 4^th-and-26…ouch.

Audibles

Got an email from Marquette fan Dale, who apparently isn’t big on Bo Ryan and/or Wisconsin, and didn’t like me giving Ryan credit for playing the Wisconsin state schools. He also says the (should be) Warriors aren’t ducking Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and among his points were that Marquette’s schedule is going to be too tough to figure with it going into the Big East, plus the fact that the Panthers are a perfect 0-34 against MU (though they haven’t played in awhile). I don’t know every minute detail about negotiations between Marquette and UWM, but I do know this: Marquette had no problem this year trying to line up a game with Wisconsin-Green Bay, which was 10-20 last year (UWGB’s schedule was already full). Since GB coach Tod Kowalczyk is a former Tom Crean assistant, that’s not entirely surprising, but the bottom line is Marquette has plenty of room on its schedule for the likes of Canisius, Sacred Heart, Savannah State, Grambling and Florida A&M. There’s no reason that one of those games couldn’t have been skipped for a date with UW-Milwaukee. The city would benefit, and Marquette would not have nearly as much to lose as it thinks. Given that they were just in a Final Four, I think it’s safe to say the Golden Eagles are already established as the team in the city; this would just be a chance to build even more excitement for both schools throughout Brew Town and even the state. (As someone who lives in the middle of Wisconsin, I can tell you most people don’t know or particularly care much about either team.) And I don’t want to hear the weak excuses about “nothing to gain”; there’s more to gain than there is from beating FAMU. UWM has been on the rise since Ryan was there a few years ago, so I think this is a classic case of chicken.

Also, a few Texas Tech fans weren’t happy with me taking a jab at Lubbock, Texas, and I apologize for the weak joke about the Mac Davis song, which as I knew and they know isn’t really ripping Lubbock. Lazy, tired and incomplete reference, but my original (and main) point stands: there’s little excuse for the terribly poor attendance at Red Raider games this year.

Finally, Steve from Iowa checks in every once in awhile with news about Creighton and some of the teams in that area. He mentioned Northern Iowa’s strong play, and I will publicly concur. The progress being made in Cedar Falls the past few years by coach Greg McDermott has been impressive. The Panthers have climbed from the bottom of the Missouri Valley to the upper half, and they don’t look to have topped out yet. Ben Jacobson is one of my favorite players in the country. He wasn’t expected to do much as a freshman last year, but started most of the season for UNI, and this year is emerging as one of the top players in the MVC.

Last year, the Panthers had probably the most unsung win in the Bracket Buster when they went on the road and beat an underachieving but brawny Louisiana Tech team. It came in the middle of a late-season five-game win streak, and though UNI still finished just 12-16, that game told me a lot about the direction in which this program is going. Look for it to continue. Northern Iowa isn’t far from competing for its first NCAA bid since 1990, when the Panthers pulled one of the upsets of all-time in shocking Missouri, 74-71.

Games you can’t or won’t watch but should

These lists are sort of thin right now because, frankly, there aren’t that many good games between two teams that people may not know much about. So many of the non-BCS conference feature mediocre or up-and-down teams that it’s hard to get a picture of exactly who the true contenders are in them right now. But we’re sure trying to keep track.

By the way, I’m not exactly sure whether this should make me explode in giddiness or whether it’s a sign of the apocalypse, but ESPN Full Court is showing no fewer than 22 games this Saturday.

Wednesday

Cincinnati at Marquette. The Bearcats are chirping before this one…this is becoming one of the best current rivalries in the country.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Not a particular fan of either team, but the heat in this rivalry is undeniable.

Creighton at Northern Iowa. Tough road game for the Jays. UNI already beat Iowa earlier this year at its dome.

Rhode Island at Temple. Gut check time for the Rams. Owls are always dangerous, but just don’t have enough to do it every night this year.

St. Peter’s at Manhattan. The Peacocks were expected to be on the rise in the Metro Atlantic in the future, but not this soon. Bob Leckie is doing a great job of building this program, which is tied for the MAAC lead early in the season.

Villanova at Boston College. Is there a season when these two aren’t on the bubble?

Thursday

Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State. These two should be the best in the Sun Belt’s East Division. Continue to keep an eye on the job Kermit Davis is doing at MTSU.

Nevada at Texas-El Paso, Fresno State at Boise State. The WAC is going to have games like this almost every single week. There are just so darn many teams that can win the league.

Pacific at Utah State. Surprising Tigers are tied for first in the Big West with the Aggies, who could start mounting some at-large consideration if they run through the conference impressively.

Saturday

St. Joseph’s at Xavier. This should be the Hawks’ biggest challenge in awhile. And it will really stink if they lose and the polls drop SJU 7-10 spots for one loss, when you know bleepin’ well they wouldn’t do the same thing if, say, Carolina lost one game.

Vermont at Boston University. Two America East heavies collide. UVM won an NCAA tourney bid last year at The Roof…you think the rolling Terriers (10 wins in a row) won’t want this one a little more than most?

Seton Hall at Boston College. Is there a season when these two aren’t on the bubble?

George Mason at Virginia Commonwealth. Maybe the two best teams in the CAA, though Old Dominion and UNC-Wilmington are there, too.

UNC-Charlotte at Memphis. The Tigers were exposed a little by Southern Miss, so they need this one at The Pyramid.

Austin Peay at Morehead State. Both have been major disappointments, but the game is on ESPN2, and when the OVC is on an ESPN net, the games rock.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Wisconsin-Green Bay. Not a bias pick. These two are at the top of the Horizon League, and UWGB has been a huge surprise, winning 8 in a row. Most picked the Phoenix to finish in the bottom of the HL.

Iowa State at Colorado. Interesting to see what the Cyclones do when they start hitting the road in the Big 12.

SE Louisiana at Stephen F. Austin. Probably the top two teams in the Southland.

Fresno State at Texas-El Paso. Bulldogs were non-descript out of conference but are getting an early jump in the WAC.

Air Force at New Mexico. Yes, Air Force. Who would’ve thought the Falcons may be one of the top four in the Mountain West?

Sunday

Fairfield at Manhattan. This game looked better before Fairfield’s recent slide. Still a matchup of last year’s top two MAAC teams.

Monday

Centenary at Houston. Cougars are improving but need to beware the upset, because this one’s trickier than it looks.

Tuesday

Marquette at UNC-Charlotte. Right now, UNCC looks pretty good for a possible NCAA at-large spot. A win here would help tremendously in building the 49ers’ case.

SMU at Rice. Owls are looking good early in the WAC, but lost this game at Autry Court last year.

Adam Glatczak writes the "Wednesday Onions" column for CollegeHoopsnet.  Bookmark the "Wednesday Onions" homepage and come back each week!

Feel free to email Adam with questions he'll answer in the Audibles section: arfboy37@yahoo.com