This is a continuation from this week's Onions Weekly Review.. We don’t have time to analyze each team’s at-large chances individually as we’ve done in past years, but we think this is a good look at the 64-team field:

 

Ed: Notte, this was submitted just prior to FSU and Texas A&M's big wins last night.

 

ACC (4): Duke, N.C. State, Boston College, North Carolina

Big East (7): UConn, Villanova, Pitt, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse

Big 10 (6): Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan

Big 12 (3): Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas

CAA (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington

C-USA (2): Memphis, Alabama-Birmingham

MVC (5): Wichita State, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Bradley

Mountain West (2): San Diego State, Air Force

Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California

SEC (6): Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama

One-bid leagues (20): 21 conferences minus one play-in team.

 

If one adds them up, they’ll notice this makes just 61 bids, and we’re not even saying all of those 61 are locks. Teams like Syracuse and California could certainly play their way out with poor finishes, while the committee may disagree on our high opinions of teams like UNC-Wilmington, Bradley and UAB. Even in this scenario and even if there were no conference tourney upsets, there are still three bids open yet.

 

In that case, the following teams will be fighting for three spots: Cincinnati, Southern Illinois, Hofstra, Colorado, Seton Hall, Utah State, BYU, Houston, maybe Texas A&M or Indiana, though one good win over Michigan State should not come close to making up for a month’s worth of disappointments for the Hoosiers.  We’re pretty sure the Bearcats would grab one of those spots unless they don’t win another game this year, but the other two spots? Draw from a hat. We’d encourage rewarding Hofstra because, unlike all of the other teams, the Flying Dutchmen have at least beaten about everyone they should this year, if not exactly lighting it up with a ton of high-profile wins. On second thought, better give any ACC team a leg up, which means, yes, a Florida State may be back in the discussion. Every year it seems the selection committee includes at least one team that probably doesn’t deserve to make the field by most measures. The committee also has admitted in the past that, while holed up in Indianapolis, they do watch games from conference tournaments on that final weekend. If a team like Florida State makes even a modest move to the ACC semis, it’s possible they’ll be so impressed that they’ll include them regardless of how worthy they are. Especially with a committee chair from the ACC.

 

Other notes:

 

Last teams in from the original 61, with those that would get bumped first listed first: Air Force, UAB, Bradley, UNC-Wilmington, San Diego State, California, Syracuse. But California is only that high because of their Pac-10 standing. In reality, the Golden Bears have a worse profile than the majority of those teams listed and if they’re evaluated correctly, probably should be between Air Force & UAB. Bradley has a better profile than almost all of these teams, but may suffer because of perception that the Valley shouldn’t get five teams…yes, politics could come into effect in the Braves’ case. So long as it isn’t politics relating to the NCAA’s dislike of the Braves nickname. We do think San Diego State’s regular season Mountain West title will help them out, but if it doesn’t they fall in right behind Air Force.

 

Two-bid leagues if the champion gets knocked off: Atlantic 10, WAC, Patriot League, WCC. And we would not be surprised at all if a second team emerged from the A-10 or WAC. However, those leagues’ second at-large hopefuls behind the conference champions are slim-to-none. Don’t buy the idea that UNC-Charlotte still has an at-large chance; they don’t. If there’s any at-large possibility in the A-10, it’s still Temple, and even that is an extremely remote shot.

 

Sorry: Mid-American Conference, Sun Belt, Southland. The MAC has again done just enough to knock itself out of a possible second spot, while Western Kentucky would’ve been in decent at-large position if not for losing at Troy by 27 in January. Northwestern State of the Southland is probably a team that would be worthy of an at-large bid if needed, but just doesn’t have that one zinger top 50 win to put them in the discussion. If only they’d pulled out close games at Wichita State or Utah State.

 

Teams in the Football Conferences are pretty much locked into their bids. Of those teams we have in, the only teams with anything to sweat, other than Syracuse and California, might be Alabama, Arkansas or Kentucky. And to say they’re sweating at all may be a stretch.

 

Other conferences that we could see stealing a bid: CAA, Big 12, MVC, ACC. Old Dominion is a team to watch in the Colonial tourney, while Southern Illinois has a relatively easy path in the Valley and could grab the automatic. If someone like Colorado, Texas A&M or Nebraska gets hot in the Big 12 tourney, they could grab that league’s fourth bid. Same with anyone outside the top four in the ACC taking an extra, particularly since that league has a recent history of grabbing bids that way. We’re thinking the only way N.C. State got in last year was because they beat Wake Forest in the ACC semifinals, because otherwise the Wolfpack’s overall profile may not have been worthy of them being in the tournament last year.

 

The Missouri Valley: One of the most intriguing leagues in years to figure out. Depending on how the committee grades the value of their conference wins, anywhere from 2-6 teams get in. Assuming the committee doesn’t change the rules as they go this year, most likely the MVC is closer to six bids than two. If this were a BCS conference or even Conference USA before all of the defections, all prognosticators would be saying a minimum of four without hesitation and would not be surprised at all with six. One may notice that Bradley is the only MVC team we see as being even in the last in category. When comparing resumes to other bubble teams (again, by established standards) the first four MVC teams should be more than solidly in the field.

 

Final Note: The 10-man selection committee this year consists of six people entering into this process for the first time, which means we may be in for some surprises. It would not be a surprise if we see a shift in emphasis again, although what that shift may be is anyone’s guess. In the past, some committees have valued non-conference schedules more, others have rewarded more conference regular season champions, still others have focused on top 25 wins. In recent years the focus has seemed more balanced than in some time, which would be good news for leagues like the MVC, Mountain West and CAA.