Game time has come for the NCAA
selection committee.
As has been discussed for the past
month-plus, this year’s committee is facing some of its most difficult and
most interesting decisions ever, and how they choose in these situations
is going to determine how the balance of the field for the NCAA Tournament
shapes up.
The committee has a number of
guidelines it follows in selecting the teams, and if it follows those
guidelines the way it has in the past and, in particular, the last few
years, we think this year’s field is going to include a number of
surprises. Everybody has their opinions about who will make this field and
who won’t, and this year those opinions differ more than in any in recent
past.
The selection will be fairly
simple, though, if the committee sticks to what it always has said in the
past about how conference affiliation doesn’t matter in selecting teams.
If the committee is doing this as it says it has in the past, without
pre-conceived notions about certain conferences or certain teams, then a
lot of teams people are calling locks are not locks, while other teams
being discounted for spots are not out of it at all. And that will
eliminate a lot of the confusion over who should make the field.
Unlike many, we trust the
committee. We believe it is doing its job exactly as it says it does and
won’t freestyle to find a way to get certain teams in. We looked at the
numbers over and over and did our best to remove thoughts of potential
committee biases towards certain conferences or ‘limits’ on some leagues.
After it all, we think teams like California and Cincinnati might still be
in but are in more trouble than anyone thinks. Michigan and Florida State
have little reason to be in, Texas A&M and Alabama are far from sure
things but will likely be O.K., and Creighton and George Mason have a
better chance of getting in than most think.
There is no set formula for
missing the field, but there are setting up to be some characteristics of
teams that should get left out. These include:
-Poor non-conference scheduling (non-conference SOS)
-Poor finish to season (last 10 games)
-Poor record vs. RPI top 50
-Poor road/neutral record
-Multiple bad losses or losses to teams ranked below
100 in RPI
There are teams that some think
will still be in the tourney despite failing several of these categories,
but we wouldn’t suggest being too comfortable about that. Whether it be
awful non-league schedules (Florida State, Texas A&M, Colorado), bad
finishes to the season (Michigan, Cincinnati), poor top 50 records (FSU,
Cincy and many bubble teams), too many bad losses (California, Alabama,
Seton Hall) or poor road records (Alabama, Michigan), all of these teams
are guilty in some ways. In fact, there are plenty of reasons to keep not
just a few of those listed teams out, but all of them, and the fact that
several will still get in is a measure more of the weakness of other
contenders than unquestioned strength over other bubble teams. Take Seton
Hall. The Pirates fail badly in two of those categories, finishing the
season just 5-5 in their last 10 and having numerous bad losses. Their
road record isn’t very good, either (5-7) but they actually grade out
better than some other prominent bubble teams. Scary thought.
If in fact we are wrong about
some teams getting in the field that we think should have little chance of
doing so (ex. Michigan and Florida State) then it’s disturbingly possible
the true main deficiency some teams will possess is their conference
affiliation. Because we’ve looked at the numbers, the schedules, and
everything else we can find, and while there are definitely some bubble
teams out there that can go either way, we cannot come up with good
reasons to include LESS than 6 Missouri Valley teams. Several of them are
deficient here and there in the above areas listed. None of them are
deficient in more than two of those categories.
Most importantly, MVC teams have
performed far better against the top 50 than many other fence sitters.
Five MVC teams have at least six top 50 wins, more than most bubble teams
out there, and the other (Missouri State) has four top 50 wins-more than
several bubble teams-and a profile similar to teams like Cincinnati and
Michigan but has finished much better than either one. It doesn’t matter
if those wins were in conference; check out the non-conference schedules
of teams like Michigan, Alabama and Seton Hall as well as non-bubble teams
like Boston College, Oklahoma and Marquette and see how many quality wins
out of conference they have. It isn’t anything more impressive than the
Valley.
Furthermore, no MVC teams have
non-conference schedules even close to as bad as teams like Florida State
or Texas A&M, and none finished poorly with the exception of Northern
Iowa, which still has the best overall profile of any Valley team. Given
all of this, a question for everyone that puts a team like Texas A&M in
ahead of Creighton is: how do you put in a team with one quality win all
season over another team with six quality, NCAA tourney-caliber wins? We
see no justification whatsoever.
We mention the MVC scenario one
more time because how the committee handles them and the CAA will
determine how this bracket is filled out. If the committee puts a ‘cap’ on
either one, teams like Seton Hall, Michigan and Florida State are more
likely to get in. But here’s an idea we’ve passed on several times this
year: think of the MVC now as taking many of the bids from Conference USA
in the past, and think of the current CAA as replacing the MVC of the
past. Doing that, would four, five or six bids for the MVC (or maybe
another similar league in future years) really be that surprising?
The committee has said for years
that conference affiliation is not important but that quality wins are. It
has also said for the longest time that how a team is playing down the
stretch matters, that it will penalize teams for not attempting to
schedule people out of conference, and that it will give consideration to
teams who go on the road. If the committee follows these rules, then we’ll
have no problems and it will show in the selections. If it changes the
rules in mid-game, there will be issues. We have confidence they will get
it right.
These are teams we think are in
the field of 64 as of Sunday morning:
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Boston
College
Atlantic 10 (2): George Washington, Xavier
Big East (7): Connecticut, Villanova, Pitt, West
Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse
Big 12 (3): Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas
Big 10 (6): Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois,
Wisconsin, Indiana
CAA (1): UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA (2): Memphis, UAB
MVC (6): Wichita State, Southern Illinois, Northern
Iowa, Bradley, Creighton, Missouri State
Mountain West (1): San Diego State
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Washington, Arizona
SEC (5): Tennessee, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
WAC (1): Nevada
Certain one-bid leagues (19,
minus one play-in team=18 bids)
=59 bids thus far
This is a judgment based on what
should happen if the committee is looking at the evidence correctly. Most
doubt the MVC’s chances of getting six bids, but even if it happens there
are still five bids available for some of the following teams:
Alabama, Hofstra, George Mason, California, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Seton
Hall, Michigan, Florida State, Colorado, Air Force and Utah State.
The final at-large teams we
have in our ‘field of 59’ are, in order of first to be left out:
Missouri State, Creighton, Bradley, UAB, Indiana. The rest are likely
comfortable. UAB and Indiana are almost certainly in, while the three MVC
schools are somewhat debatable, but again, the numbers say they should be
in.
The final five spots. If we
were going to guess what the committee will do, we think they’ll put in
Alabama for #60, leave out Hofstra in favor of George Mason for
#61, and will find space for Texas A&M (62) as well as most likely
Cincinnati (63). Throw in California (64) for the final spot.
Don’t be misled, though; none of these five are anything close to a
lock. Also, wouldn’t be surprised if Creighton got bumped, though it
should not happen if the committee is considering the data correctly. It
is also possible that Missouri State is left out because the Bears’ record
vs. top 50 teams isn’t much different from Cincinnati or Michigan, but we
think the Bears will somehow squeeze in because of their high RPI and
stronger finish than either of those teams. Our good sense tells us teams
like Florida State, Michigan and Air Force are likely out now after their
early conference tourney exits, but again, it’s hard to know how the
committee will evaluate the MVC or CAA.
The South Carolina Situation:
If the Gamecocks win the SEC tourney, they would grab one of these last
spots. Two likely scenarios include that spot being taken from California
or from fellow SEC member Alabama. If the committee is looking for reasons
to keep certain teams out, it could take it from an MVC team and use this
result as a smoke screen to say that they otherwise would’ve been
in…again, we’ll trust they won’t do these things
If South Carolina does not
win the SEC tourney, the final teams out would include: Seton Hall,
Air Force and Hofstra, Michigan, Colorado, Florida State, Utah State and
maybe Western Kentucky. Here is what should keep those teams out:
Seton Hall: So many bad
losses and general inconsistency (3 losses vs. teams ranked below 100;
huge blowouts vs. Duke and UConn, 3 straight losses late in season to Big
East bottom half teams) that it should cancel out great wins. Final blow
should’ve been a very poor performance in the Big East tourney vs.
Rutgers. Just 5-5 in last 10, and only 5-7 road/neutral record, although
those numbers would’ve been manageable if not for so many clumsy losses.
Air Force: No top 50 wins,
overall SOS of 158, non-conference SOS of 273, first-round Mountain West
tourney loss to Wyoming. Lot of wins, not much substance.
Hofstra: Non-conference SOS
of 281 is a dagger. Overall SOS of 129, and right or wrong, the signature
of their non-conference are wins over St. John’s and La Salle and
convincing loss to Big East #12 team Notre Dame. 11 wins vs. teams ranked
200 or lower. SOS just doesn’t quite cancel out the good wins.
Michigan: Bad finish (2-7)
should be a killer, not playing anything like an NCAA team now. 5-7
road/neutral record, only 3-8 vs. top 50. 147th ranked
non-conference SOS with nothing for impressive wins OOC. Almost nothing on
the road-best road win was at Minnesota. Unlike Creighton, injury issue is
not a factor because Wolverines will not be getting those players back for
the postseason.
Colorado: Horrid
performance in Big 12 quarterfinal vs. Texas A&M, 6-8 road/neutral record,
5-5 in last 10, only 2-5 vs. top 50, non-conference SOS of 272, two below
100 losses. No consistency against good teams or on the road, not even on
the road against teams worse than them.
Florida State: First round
ACC tourney loss to ACC last-place team, non-conference SOS of 316 and no
attempts whatsoever to schedule tougher is inexcusable. Also just 2-5 vs.
top 50, and so-called strong finish included just a 6-4 record in last 10
and double-digit losses in there to Wake and Virginia Tech. Letting in the
Seminoles might just destroy nearly all integrity the selection process
has. It would go against everything the committee has stood for in the
past and would set an extremely bad precedent, essentially saying that you
can build an entire season around one win, and you don’t even need to
schedule anyone out of conference to do it.
Utah State: Only one top 50
win, three losses to teams ranked below 100, 18-point loss at home in big
late season WAC game against league champ Nevada, just not enough quality
wins to get attention.
Western Kentucky: One top
50 win and just three total top 100 wins, as well as an overall RPI of 125
and three below 100 losses. Blowout loss to South Alabama in Sun Belt
final certainly didn’t help either. A team likely good enough for an
at-large, but Hilltoppers’ conference holds them down.
Now, here are why the last
teams in would be in, as well as why they maybe shouldn’t be:
California: 12 Pac-10 wins,
8-7 road/neutral, 7-3 in last 10, wins over UCLA, Arizona and Washington.
Negatives above. Pretty solid compared to some, if for no other reason
than the smaller sample size against top 50 teams. Still a team that could
easily be kept out with a middling non-conference performance and just
three top 50 wins and three below 100 losses, including a terrible one to
#306 Eastern Michigan. About as up and down as Seton Hall.
Cincinnati: Overall SOS of
6, non-conference SOS of 23, big wins over West Virginia, LSU and
Syracuse. Perception also helps the Bearcats, because this team has been
praised all year for its toughness. Frankly, though, a team that probably
deserves to be left out. Even easier to leave out than California because
of their 6-10 finish, their struggles without Armein Kirkland, their 4-8
record vs. the top 50 and their 5-8 road/neutral record. Profile not
nearly as good as the impression given by TV, but it is better than
Michigan or FSU.
Texas A&M: Hot finish (won
8 of last 9), 10-6 Big 12 record, and they looked great in blowing out
Colorado in Big 12 quarterfinal. Honestly thinking that will get them in.
However, just one top 50 win (1-5 vs. top 50 teams), hot finish included a
lot of wins over nobody, and there’s still that bad non-conference
schedule (rank: 240) that included just one road game and next to zero
attempts to schedule up (we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for
traveling to Pacific). Those things could very, very easily cost the
Aggies and they’d have no reason to argue.
George Mason: Tied for CAA
regular season title, non-conference win at MVC regular season champ,
non-conference SOS of 33, 8-2 in last 10, 11-6 road/neutral. We’re
thinking the CAA somehow gets a second, and if the committee docks poor
non-conference schedules, then Hofstra is a likely casualty. Patriots’
negatives include just 2-4 mark vs. top 50, non-conference losses to BCS
also-rans Wake Forest and Mississippi State, and two losses to Hofstra in
the past two weeks. And how will committee take into account suspension of
point guard Tony Shinn for one game?
Alabama: 5-6 vs. top 50, 18th
toughest non-league schedule, overall SOS of 11 probably gets them in.
However, the Crimson Tide’s picture isn’t nearly as pretty as many think
because of 3 below 100 losses, a 3-8 road/neutral record and a very
middling non-conference performance.
Missouri State: Four top 50
wins, non-conference SOS of 41, 8-2 in last 10 games, 8-6 road/neutral
record and no losses to teams outside of top 50. Also the only team where
we will mention RPI (20), which would be by far the highest ever of a team
left out of tourney. Guessing the committee doesn’t have the guts to do
it. Negatives are just 4-8 vs. top 50 and a non-conference schedule that
doesn’t really pass the eye test.
Creighton: 6-6 vs. top 50,
20-point win at George Mason, decent non-conference SOS of 83, and at
least made attempt to schedule up and play on the road out of conference,
unlike many other bubble teams. Also had four of their nine losses over
final 6 games when starting point guard Josh Dotzler was injured. When
healthy, there’s no question they should be in. Negatives are a 5-8
road/neutral record and two below-100 losses, some other parts of their
profile are fairly avg. (6-4 in last 10) but not enough to take call them
minuses.
Bradley: 7-6 vs. top 50,
finished red-hot winning 7 of last 8, overall SOS of 50. Only definite
minus is three sub-100 losses, otherwise Braves are mediocre in most areas
but not bad enough to hurt them. Strong finish should’ve done it for BU.
Seed Projection:
Seeds:
1: Duke, Connecticut, Villanova, Ohio State
2: Memphis, Texas, Illinois, Gonzaga
3: North Carolina, UCLA, Florida, Pittsburgh
4: Iowa, George Washington, LSU, Boston College
5: Tennessee, Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan State
6: Georgetown, West Virginia, Wichita State, Nevada
7: Washington, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Marquette
8: Arizona, Kentucky, Northern Iowa, Bucknell
9: N.C. State, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, UAB
10: Indiana, UNC-Wilmington, Bradley, Cincinnati
11: Creighton, Missouri State, San Diego State, Alabama
12: California, George Mason, Texas A&M, UW-Milwaukee
13: Xavier, Murray State, Kent State, South Alabama
14: Pacific, Iona, Northwestern State, Winthrop
15: Davidson, Penn, Belmont, Montana
16: Albany, Southern, Oral Roberts, Monmouth/Hampton
Up next:
-SEC Final is the biggest, with
South Carolina trying to steal a bid with a win over Florida. Sorry, it’s
hard to cheer for a team like the Gamecocks that has had more than enough
chances to be in the tourney before this.
-ACC, Big 10 and Big 12 finals
include all teams already in the tourney. Little drama other than whether
or not Ohio State can get a #1 seed, but we have a feeling that may be
decided already…
-Southland final features
Northwestern State and Sam Houston State in what should be an excellent
matchup. Who would’ve thought the Bearkats would be a bookend to this
season, appearing in one of the earliest national TV games (preseason NIT
vs. Drexel) and one of the latest?
Previous Editions of the Onions: Championship Week Journal:
March 11,
March 10, March 8,
March 6, March 4
