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THURSDAY 1st ROUND PREVIEW

Onions Archive

NCAA  Tournament

by Adam Glatczak

March 20th, 2003

 
 

Brand makes the correct call, games are on


We had a scare there, but in the end, everything is right again. Give credit to Myles Brand for wising up. The NCAA prez spoke initially of possibly postponing the NCAA Tournament, but after researching the idea he did the right thing and said the games are a go.

 

That was the right decision. No doubt we need to respect the service men and women overseas. However, life shouldn’t stop in the U.S.

We need this. Too much talk about war is nothing less than depressing. America needs a diversion.

 

Many have looked at September 11th in saying games should be postponed. But this isn’t September 11th. This isn’t something surprising. This is something expected, and something the U.S. is bringing upon itself, right or wrong. Why should life stop because the president declares war? Playing the games isn’t being disrespectful, it’s life carrying on.

 

The only logical reason for postponing was if there was grave danger to the NCAA sites. If not, then let’s play.

 

Games were played in 1991 the same night the Gulf War started. The Final Four was played when Ronald Reagan was shot. There’s no reason why games shouldn’t be played tomorrow.

 

On the court, though, it will be very interesting to see how this week’s events affect the tourney participants. It is impossible to analyze the war and other distractions this week could very well play a factor.

 

Let’s hope not. This is the NCAA Tournament, two of the best days of any calendar year. We’re shouldn’t let a war take away from that. To paraphrase ultra-cool Missouri Valley Conference basketball TV announcer Mitch Holthus: “Game on in America.”

 

Previewing Thursday’s games


The real NCAA Tournament starts Thursday, not Tuesday. The Scarlet Letter (a.k.a. opening round, a.k.a. “don’t call it play-in”) game was played Tuesday, with UNC-Asheville getting a hard-earned 92-84 overtime win over Texas Southern. The Bulldogs now are in the field, while the Tigers aren’t. Don’t buy all the propaganda, the play-in game is not a real part of the NCAA Tournament. If it was, it would be scheduled for CBS, just like the rest of the tournament, and it would be played in front of a full house, not the hearty but still small gatherings that have checked it out the past three years in Dayton (give credit to the Dayton area; the play-in game is played anywhere else and it draws about 5,000 people, tops).

It’s an insult that two schools even have to participate in a play-in game. If there’s a real problem with 31 automatic bids, take away the automatic from the Mountain West, the newest of the Division I conferences. We know the BCS schools will never give up an at-large bid, so considering the Mountain West schools sold out the WAC schools, why not punish them? Don’t punish conferences who have been Division I for a long time.

 

In a nanosecond, small schools would trade “winning in the tournament” in a play-in game for the chance at a number one seed. Thanks to the play-in game, though, one team gets cheated out of that, and also gets cheated out of a shot at a true NCAA Tournament experience.

 

Play-in or no, though, we won’t let that stop us from enjoying the games Thursday. Here are some things to look for in all 16 first-round matchups.

 

East Regional


#1 Oklahoma vs. #16 South Carolina State

Expect a low-scoring game here, somewhere along the lines of 65-48. The Sooners aren’t good enough offensively to make this an utter whitewash, but the Bulldogs don’t have the inside beef to hang with Oklahoma.

Key for Oklahoma: Consistency. All year, whenever the Sooners seemed ready to live up to their considerable preseason hype as the nation’s best team, they’ve thrown an offensive clunker like they did in the Big 12 final against Missouri. It’s hard to bet against a team that went to the Final Four last year, but it’s possible this year’s team isn’t as good as last year’s. OU can’t afford a stinker here; the Sooners don’t want to let the Bulldogs hang around.

Key for South Carolina State: Moses Malone, Jr. Yes, the son of Mr. “Fo’-Fo’-Fo’” himself plays for the Bulldogs, and in fact is S.C. State’s leading scorer. However, he only had five in the Bulldogs’ MEAC championship game win over Hampton. He has the talent to play with a Hollis Price, and if he has a strong game the underdogs could hang for awhile.

 

#8 California vs. #9 N.C. State

Why are Ben Braun’s teams always forgotten? Many are picking the Wolfpack to pull the upset here, but a lot of that is because those folks haven’t seen Cal play. In all honesty, the Golden Bears don’t look like they should win as much as they do, but Joe Shipp and Amit Tamir carry this team a long way. N.C. State has a lot of momentum carrying over from the ACC Tournament, but in the past that hasn’t always meant much when NCAA Tournament play starts.

Key for California: Perimeter defense. The Cal guards and even forwards have to stop the Wolfpack from putting on a three-point display like they have at times this year.

Key for N.C. State: Play like they’re at home. Until the ACC Tournament, N.C. State was nothing less than incompetent when playing away from Raleigh. This team is better than that.

 

South Regional


#5 Connecticut vs. #12 BYU

This may be one of the most anticipated first-round games in several years, thanks to the selection committee’s bracket screw-up in placing the Cougars. This is also a much better game than many want to say, and anyone thinking BYU can’t make the Sweet 16 is misinformed and disrespecting the Cougars. You don’t win 23 games with smoke and mirrors. UConn has more speed and athleticism than BYU, but watching Rafael Araujo against Emeka Okeafor could be a great inside matchup.

Key for Connecticut: The backcourt. If Ben Gordon and Taliek Brown are on a roll shooting well and pushing the tempo, UConn is a Final Four-caliber team. When they aren’t, the Huskies struggle to score and look really, really average.

Key for BYU: Tempo. The Cougars don’t want to let Connecticut’s running game get into high gear, because that’s when the Huskies are most dangerous. A halfcourt game would certainly favor the Cougars.

 

#4 Stanford vs. #13 San Diego

Like California, Stanford is another Pac-10 team not too many know much about this year. Of course, not as many are picking an upset in this game because east coasters don’t know much about San Diego, either. Well, the Cardinal is a young team that has been up (almost beating Arizona) and down (losses to the likes of USC, Montana and Richmond, the last two at home) but mostly up. San Diego has Oklahoma State transfer Jason Keep, a real bull inside, but guys like Jason Blair and Roy Morris could also give the Cardinal trouble, too. This is a good matchup. Stanford should beat San Diego, but if the Toreros hit some threes and don’t turn the ball over, this will go down to the final minutes.

Key for Stanford: The Cardinal is like Syracuse in their youth. Stanford’s freshmen need to play with the same poise they have all year. Also, San Diego doesn’t have strong play at the point, and Stanford could take control of this game by forcing turnovers.

Key for San Diego: Same as it has been all season. Keep must stay out of foul trouble. If he does, the Toreros have a guy inside who can score on almost anyone. Also, USD is a bad free-throw shooting team, and NEEDS to make foul shots late if they have a lead.

 

Midwest Regional


#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Weber State

This is one of those trendy upset picks, but that’s not surprising because Wisconsin hasn’t received much respect all year. The Badgers are better than they get credit for, but this will be tough because these are really two evenly matched teams. Position-by-position, they match up together well, but Wisconsin gets a slight edge off the bench. Weber State needs to play with more discipline than it did in the Big Sky final, or this will be an uphill battle. The Wildcats aren’t going to pummel you from outside, so it’s imperative the Badgers try to stop Weber’s penetration. Interestingly enough, these two have some recent history. Weber State beat Wisconsin last year in the Big Island Invitational.

Key for Wisconsin: Kirk Penney. The Aussie could take over this game by making some threes. If he shoots poorly, the Badgers better look out.

Key for Weber State: Jermaine Boyette is an excellent player, but he needs help. Slobodan Ocokoljic was almost invisible in the Big Sky final game. He needs to play disciplined and stay out of foul trouble. Watch Nic Sparrow, a 6-4 forward who is much more athletic than he looks.

 

#4 Dayton vs. #13 Tulsa

One of those real mystery games of the first-round. Everyone knows Tulsa’s recent NCAA history, but this Golden Hurricane team isn’t as good as most of those that won in the tourney. Dayton has been a surprise all year, and the Flyers are a team in the truest sense. This one should be good, and there’s almost no chance at all this will be a blowout either way. These two are too much alike.

Key for Dayton: Stop Kevin Johnson. When Johnson is dominating, it opens up the entire Golden Hurricane offense, and Tulsa plays much more freely.

Key for Tulsa: Three-point shooting. If Tulsa hits a lot of triples, the Golden Hurricane will be very difficult to beat. If they’re shooting poorly, they don’t have enough inside weapons other than Johnson to compensate.

 

#6 Missouri vs. #11 Southern Illinois

Another of the tastiest games of the first day. Many are picking Missouri, in part because the Tigers looked good in the Big 12 Tournament, while Southern Illinois was awful in the MVC final. A closer look, though, reveals Mizzou had some struggles late in the year and almost lost in the Big 12 quarterfinals to Oklahoma State, while Southern Illinois was much more dominant than Creighton the second half of the MVC season. Both are tournament-tough, and the Salukis have the athletes to hang with Rickey Paulding and the rest of the flying Tigers. MVC schools usually have large chips on their shoulders when playing Big 12 teams, so this is no picnic for Missouri.

Key for Missouri: Arthur Johnson needs a big game. These two teams are pretty similar, but Johnson gets an edge offensively over SIU’s Sylvester Willis. If he doesn’t score much, the Tigers may be in trouble.

Key for Southern Illinois: “Big Game” Jermaine Dearman needs to live up to his nickname. When possessed he can dominate both ends of the floor, but a pedestrian game will almost certainly spell doom for the Salukis.

 

#3 Marquette vs. #14 Holy Cross

Everyone knows how the Crusaders have played as low seeds in the last two NCAA Tournaments, so don’t think for a second Marquette is overlooking its opponent. The Golden Eagles also want to atone for last year’s first-round loss to Tulsa. Expect both teams to be very well-prepared, so this will be a grinder. Holy Cross is very tall, but Marquette still has the edge inside; the Golden Eagles are a lot more than just Dwyane Wade. Don’t be surprised by another close loss for the Crusaders.

Key for Marquette: Tough interior defense on the Holy Cross big guys will be important. Patriot League foe American did this a lot to the Crusaders, and it gave them fits.

Key for Holy Cross: A big game for the guards. Jave Meade and Brian Wilson will need to hit some outside shots to prevent Marquette from collapsing in on Patrick Whearty and Tim Szatko.

 

West Regional


#1 Arizona vs. #16 Vermont

Well...obviously this is a mismatch on paper. The consensus number one team for almost all season against the first-time tourney entrant that gives only 10 1/2 scholarships. In truth, Vermont is better than other #16 seeds, and UVM has some excellent players, particularly Taylor Coppenrath, who has Larry Bird-like qualities, according to coach Tom Brennan. This just isn’t a good matchup for the Catamounts, though. Vermont would’ve had a better chance against an Oklahoma. Still, will there be anyone outside of Arizona fans not rooting for the Catamounts? Vermont is still a wonderful story and the epitome of the underdog.

Key for Arizona: Press. Expect the dormant Wildcat press to be revived for this one. Vermont does not have a true point guard and isn’t particularly quick. If Lute’s boys do press and the Catamounts lose their head, this could be ugly.

Key for Vermont: Don’t get intimidated, by Arizona or by the thought of being in the NCAA Tournament. The Catamounts are the best of the #16 seeds, and the Wildcats have proven this year that if an opponent doesn’t lose their heads, they can hang with Arizona for awhile.

 

#8 Cincinnati vs. #9 Gonzaga

The Bulldogs are hoping to finally be healthy for this one, and they’ll need to be. Otherwise, Cincy could have a substantial advantage inside. This should be fun, because these are two tournament-tested teams. The Bearcats have been Team Turmoil for much of the season, though, and don’t exactly come into the NCAAs on a roll. Still, Cincy matches up well with the Zags, but if Blake Stepp is hot, he’ll probably be the difference.

Key for Cincinnati: UC needs an offensive spark, or at least the mental toughness to weather any Gonzaga runs. The Bulldogs are prone to droughts of mediocrity, so the Bearcats can certainly win with an effort like they had against Oklahoma State or Oregon.

Key for Gonzaga: Rebounding. All year, the Zags have been inconsistent in this area. It won’t be any easier against a Bob Huggins-led team.

 

#5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee

This one has upset written all over it. The Panthers come into this game very, very hot. Notre Dame appears to have petered out late in the season. Usually there’s a game like this in the tournament every year, where a really hot team plays a team that struggled down the stretch, and usually the hot team prevails. Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s press is something the Irish don’t see much in the Big East, though Chris Thomas is the kind of point guard you want breaking a press. Tom Davis’s Iowa teams were always very difficult to play in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and Bruce Pearl was a former assistant to Dr. Tom and almost copies that press here. If Notre Dame can get easy baskets against the press, it could be another story, but if they don’t, guys like Clay Tucker and Dylan Page will steal the show here.

Key for Notre Dame: Regain that early-season form. If they do, the Irish are good enough to last several rounds. If they don’t, their tournament stay could be very short.

Key for UWM: The Panthers need to hold their own inside. Notre Dame doesn’t have a dominant front line, so UWM should be able to hang in this area. If they can’t, that spells trouble.

 

#4 Illinois vs. #13 Western Kentucky

There are more than a few past instances where teams that won conference tournaments just prior to the NCAAs have struggled in the tourney. That is certainly what Western Kentucky is hoping happens to the Fighting Illini, who otherwise are playing very, very well right now. Illinois is the best team the Big Ten has to offer, and it’s hard to picture a Big Ten champ losing in the first round. This is a tough game for the Hilltopppers, and though they have players to match up against Brian Cook, they’ll still have a hard time guarding him. Otherwise, Western comes into the NCAAs playing almost as well as the Illini. Watch Illinois guard Dee Brown against WKU’s Patrick Sparks. Whoever gets the best of that matchup could very well determine who gets the upper hand here. However, the question is whether WKU has a go-to guy if this game comes down to a final possession?

Key for Illinois: Roger Powell has stepped up late this year. When playing well he makes the Fighting Illini much better.

Key for Western Kentucky: No dead spells. The Hilltoppers occasionally dry up offensively. They can’t afford that in this game.

 

#6 Creighton vs. #11 Central Michigan

Maybe the best first-round game of all, and it’s a shame one has to be eliminated by playing the other. Aside from the MVC final when they blitzed Southern Illinois, the Bluejays struggled most of the second-half of the year. When playing their best, though, the Bluejays are a legit top 15 club. Meanwhile, Central Michigan has kicked it to another level lately. The Chippewa guards have been money from the perimeter in recent weeks, meaning teams can’t just collapse on stud center Chris Kaman. This should be a dandy, and it wouldn’t be a shock if either team made it to the Sweet 16.

Key for Creighton: Make this a helter-skelter game. That’s when the Bluejays are at their best, because they’re forcing turnovers like crazy. The Jays also play a lot more unselfishly when the pace is chaotic. If they can do that, it doesn’t matter how big or athletic the other team is, the Jays are very, very difficult to beat.

Key for Central Michigan: Ride Kaman as far as he’ll take ya’. Man to man, Creighton has no one who should be able to guard the seven-footer. Even if the Bluejays try to zone him, he’s still the Chippewas’ meal ticket. If CU does zone, though, watch guards J.R. Wallace and T.J. Meerman. If they hit threes, CMU could easily do what last year’s West #11 seed Wyoming did and upset the “in” “mid-major” of the year.

 

#3 Duke vs. #14 Colorado State

The Dukies won the ACC Tournament without putting together a complete game. If Duke does play well for a full game in this tourney, look out. It’s probably too much to expect Colorado State to play like it did in the Mountain West tourney, considering the Rams really didn’t play that well all season. Still, if there’s a carryover effect, this could be a good one.

Key for Duke: The Blue Devils could force a lot of turnovers with pressure defense on the perimeter.

Key for Colorado State: Show the same guts they did in the Mountain West Tournament, and Duke will be in for a battle. The Rams also could have a distinct advantage inside, so give the ball to Matt Nelson and Brian Greene as much as possible.

 

#7 Memphis vs. #10 Arizona State

This should be fun. There may not be many better one-on-one matchups in this whole tournament than the one you’ll get here with Chris Massie against Ike Diogu. Memphis has been playing very well late in the year, but don’t underestimate the Sun Devils. Arizona State has been close many, many times against good teams this year, and is very capable of winning here.

Key for Memphis: Don’t be disappointed by the seed and play hard. There have been many instances in the past of teams feeling shafted by the selection committee and then letting it carry over into their play.

Key for Arizona State: We know what Diogu and Curtis Millage will produce. What ASU needs is for a guy like Tommy Smith or Kyle Dodd to have an unexpected big game. Smith could give ASU an edge inside, or else Dodd could stretch the Tigers with three-point shooting.

 

#2 Kansas vs. #15 Utah State

The Jayhawks get a team that is much better than your average #15 seed, and this won’t be a cakewalk. Stew Morrill’s teams are always ready to play against the big boys. This isn’t his best team at Utah State, but Kansas still won’t be able to just go through the motions here. Fortunately, one thing you can’t accuse Roy Williams’s teams of doing is underestimating first round opponents.

Key for Kansas: Rebounding. Utah State is the top rebounding team in the Big West. The Jayhawks still should be better than that, and if they dominate the glass the Aggies could get frustrated very quickly. Also watch KU’s shooting; when this team is cold they are very, very ordinary.

Key for Utah State: Dictate tempo. Kansas will want to run at every opportunity; the Aggies like a game in the 60s. A track meet is not good for USU.


 

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