ACC Stats Projection: 2008-09

ACC Basketball

This is the first of my annual six statistical projections of BCS conference starters. The lineups are based on the Starting Fives series of articles released two weeks ago, along with a couple of changes due to recent developments.

For an idea of whether I know what I'm talking about, check out last year's ACC Stats Projection. Here's last year's Duke projections compared to reality:

Duke Projected vs 2007-08 Reality

G Greg Paulus - 14, 3, 5   vs   11, 2, 3
G Jon Scheyer - 11, 3, 2   vs   12, 4, 2
G DeMarcus Nelson - 13, 5, 3   vs   14, 6, 3
F Kyle Singler - 13, 6, 2   vs   13, 6, 1
C Brian Zoubek - 6, 4, 1   vs   4, 3, 1

Keep in mind stats are highly dependent on minutes. My biggest misses are always guys who either win or lose starting spots unexpectedly.

THE ACC

Boston College

G Biko Paris - 8, 2, 4
G Tyrese Rice - 21, 4, 5
F Rakim Sanders - 14, 6, 2
F Corey Raji - 10, 5, 2
C Josh Southern - 6, 5, 1
6 Joe Trapani - 7, 4, 1

Notes: Rice scored 21 last year, but I don't see a major jump as Sanders & Raji should be improved and more capable scorers .

Clemson

G Demontez Stitt - 11, 2, 4
G Terrence Oglesby - 14, 3, 2
G KC Rivers Sr - 14, 6, 2
F Raymond Sykes - 9, 5, 1
C Trevor Booker - 13, 8, 2
6 Andre Young - 5, 2, 3

Notes: Oglesby averaged an impressive 11 ppg in just 18 mpg, so he could make my projection look weak. Rivers #'s should be pretty steady compared to last year.

Duke

G Greg Paulus - 12, 3, 3
G Jon Scheyer - 12, 4, 3
G Gerald Henderson - 16, 5, 2
F Kyle Singler - 16, 7, 2
C Miles Plumlee - 7, 4, 1
6 Nolan Smith - 9, 3, 3

Notes: Smith could usurp the starting PF spot, but either way Paulus should see 25-30 mpg like last year. Singler & Henderson & Smith should be the Blue Devils with the major statistical boosts.

Florida State
G Toney Douglas - 15, 4, 5
G Derwin Kitchen - 10, 3, 2
F Chris Singleton - 12, 4, 2
F Uche Echefu - 13, 9, 1
F Solomon Alabi - 8, 5, 1
6 Ryan Reid - 6, 6, 1

Notes: Douglas is one of the most underrated players in the ACC. Singleton, Kitchen, and Alabi are all highly rated newcomers. Echefu's numbers have increased each year, and should jump from the 10 ppg he scored last year.

Georgia Tech

G Maurice Miller - 10, 2, 4
G Lewis Clinch - 11, 2, 2
F Iman Shumpert - 12, 3, 3
F Gani Lawal - 12, 6, 1
C Zack Peacock - 12, 5, 1

Notes: The Jackets should have a balanced attack. Lawal's production could double from the 7 & 3.5 he averaged last year. The freshman Shumpert is the X factor, who could emerge as the team's go-to scorer. *Bell is out for the season, and Aminu is GT's lone reserve with any substantial experience.

Maryland

G Greivis Vasquez - 19, 5, 6
G Eric Hayes - 13, 4, 4
F Landon Milbourne - 11, 5, 1
F Jerome Burnley - 6, 5, 1
C Braxton Dupree - 9, 6, 1
6 Sean Mosley - 8, 2, 2

Notes: One of Hayes or Milbourne really needs to emerge as an impact scorer to take the load off Vasquez. Dupree could put up surprisingly solid numbers if forced to play 30 mpg.

Miami

G Lance Hurdle - 9, 2, 3
G Jack McClinton - 17, 2, 3
F James Dews - 11, 3, 2
F Dwayne Collins - 13, 7, 1
C Jimmy Graham - 9, 7, 1
6 Brian Asbury - 9, 4, 2

Notes: Collins & Graham might be the only guys whose output increases significantly. The guard numbers should remain relatively stable as players see similar minutes to last year, and newcomer DeQuan Jones might steal some baskets as well.


NC State

G Farnold Degand - 7, 3, 4
G Courtney Fells - 14, 4, 2
F Tracy Smith - 11, 5, 1
F Brandon Costner - 14, 5, 3
C Ben McCauley - 9, 6, 2
6 Julius Mays - 6, 4, 1

Notes: With Hickson out of the way, I expect Costner's numbers to rebound in a major way (though not McCauley's). Fells average will jump due to Grant's graduation, while Tracy Smith could be the beneficiary of a major jump in PT.


North Carolina

G Ty Lawson - 14, 3, 6
G Wayne Ellington - 19, 4, 3
F Marcus Ginyard - 7, 4, 2
F Deon Thompson - 10, 6, 1
F Tyler Hansbough - 21, 10, 1
6 Danny Green - 12, 5, 2

Notes: I expect Hansbrough's scoring numbers to drop a tad, as Ellington picks up more of the load. With Alex Stepheson out of the way, Thompson will see 25+ minutes and approach double-digit scoring.


Virginia

G Calvin Baker - 9, 3, 3
G Jeff Jones - 11, 3, 2
F Mamadi Diane - 13, 6, 1
F Mike Scott - 10, 7, 1
C Tunji Soroye - 3, 5, 1
6 Sylven Landesberg - 10, 4, 2

Notes: Not the prettiest lineup. Jones will have to score more now that Singletary's gone, and Landesberg with also help pick up the slack there. He could eventually be a starter.

Virginia Tech

G Malcolm Delaney - 13, 3, 3
G AD Vassallo - 15, 5, 2
F JT Thompson - 8, 5, 1
F Jeff Allen - 15, 8, 1
F Victor Davila - 8, 5, 1
6 Lewis Witcher - 5, 4, 1

Notes: Vassallo's scoring output should level off as both Delaney and Allen play a larger role in VT's attack. Davila, a freshman, could be a major surprise or a major disappointment.

Wake Forest

G Ishmael Smith - 10, 4, 7
G Jeff Teague - 15, 3, 3
F Al-Farouq Aminu - 13, 5, 1
F James Johnson - 13, 8, 1
C Chas McFarland - 8, 7, 1
6 LD Williams - 7, 3, 1

Notes: Smith's assist totals should bounce back to where they were his freshman year. Aminu is solid, but don't expect him to come in and blow the stat sheet away. Johnson and McFarland's numbers should stabilize as they lose opportunities to Amini, Woods, and Walker.

Projected ACC Leaders

Top PPG
1) Tyrese Rice (21)
2) Tyler Hansbrough (20)
3) Wayne Ellington/Greivis Vasquez (19)

Top RPG
1) Tyler Hansbrough (10)
2) Uche Echefu (9)

3) Jeff Allen/Travis Booker/James Johnson (8)

Top APG
1) Ishmael Smith (7)
2) Greivis Vasquez (6)

3) Ty Lawson (6)

Fantasy Stats Preview Archive

RECENT ACC ARTICLES:

ACC Starting Fives

ACC Top Six Players

ACC Five-Year Ranking

ACC Most Underrated Players