I love sports stats. Its as simple as that.. baseball has the best stats obviously, but college basketball has some underrated numbers. And I'm not talking about the RPI, I'm talking about Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Its not my place to explain these numbers, but you can check out http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/ for what the stats mean. But basically a good offensive efficiency rating means a team is good at offense and a good defensive efficiency rating means your good at D. Ken combines these two efficiency ratings into the "Pythag Winning Percentage" which basically predicts how a team will do against an average schedule. For example, last year's national champion Florida, ended up #1 in the Pythag category. They were projected to have a 97.4 winning percentage against an average schedule. The worst, not suprisingly was 1-26 Savannah State with .8% Pythag winning percentage. This means (theoretically), Savannah State would only have won 1 of every 100 games against an average NCAA schedule last year.
The Siegel Quality Ranking is back for its second go-round. Big positive movers in the past week:
SIU up from 7 to 4
Duke up from 21 to 12
UNLV up form 23 to 14
Maryland up from 36 to 20
San Diego State up from 53 to 38
Winthrop shoots up to 46th after not being part of last week's ranking.
BC down to 16 from 10
Creighton down to 17 from 11
Arizona down to 21 from 12
Kentucky down to 27 from 17
Indiana down to 33 from 24
Villanova down to 36 from 26
Wichita State down to 56 from 34
Quality Ranking Rules:
A quality game is one of three things: A home game against a Top 50 RPI team, a Neutral game against a Top 100 team, and a Road win against a Top 150 team. Such wins are hard to come by and only the real NCAA Tournament contenders are able to win many.
Sorry MEAC and SWAC.. you really don't deserve to have a team in college basketball's ultimate tournament. Here is what the real field of 65 would look like. You'll notice there's no 65th team in here.. the play-in game has no business in the Tournament.
I tried to use some of the basic seeding principles in putting this list together. No teams from the same conference will meet in round one. Sites are selected based on an S-curve, and geography is taken into account. Because this includes more teams from the same repetitive conferences, conference foes are allowed to meet as early as the 2nd round in this exercise.
- Bracketology: Selection Sunday Projection
- Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection
- Non-BCS Top 25: Creighton, Colorado St Rise
- College Basketball Top 50: Indiana Ends Regular Season #1
- Non-BCS Top 25: Valpo Replaces BYU
- College Basketball Top 50: Maryland and Iowa St Drop Out
- Non-BCS Top 25: Davidson In, Wyoming Out
- College Basketball Top 50: #2 Gonzaga Hits All-Time High
- Non-BCS Top 25: Air Force, Davidson Making Moves
- College Basketball Top 50: Another Week, Another #1