Shawn Siegel's Blog

Biggest win on Saturday? New Mexico State upsetting #13 Nevada in a key WAC battle. This should probably be a two-bid league this year and the Aggies are the team fighting for the 2nd bid. After losing a close OT game against Louisiana Tech, NMSU bounced back for the big (huge really) win behind 29 points from Justin Hawkins. Making things better for the Aggies, they now have games against conference bottom-feeders Idaho and San Jose State coming up which should leave them at 17-4.

The MWC should also be a two-bid league, but no one besides Air Force is really locked in. The Falcons picked up a big win over San Diego State yesterday, rebounding from their 2nd loss. SDSU is now 13-6 and their hopes of an at-large bid are basically done. UNLV is the likely 2nd bid, but the Rebels are just 3-2 in league play. Home wins this week against SDSU and New Mexico are musts.

Nothing like a good Saturday of college hoops.. 21 of the Top 25 teams in action. More importantly, a lot of these teams are on the road at hostile conference foes. #5 Kansas at Texas Tech, #13 Nevada at New Mexico State, #19 LSU at Arkansas are just a few of them. Then you have some solid non-conference games like #23 Texas at Villanova.

Will be interesting to see how the Longhorns rebound from the epic triple-OT loss at Oklahoma State. My guess is that game will only make them better in the long run. Durant's on crazy good run, averaging 34 ppg over his last 4 games. Nova's no joke either, but they have been vulnerable at home with losses to DePaul and Drexel. DJ Augstin isn't the only top freshman PG in this game. Scottie Reynolds has been playing the best ball of his young career in recent weeks. The once almost-Oklahoma recruit is averaging 20.5 per game over his last four, after not breaking the 20 point mark in his first 13 games.

Duke had no problem with Wake Forest Thursday night, winning 62-40. Duke didn't even play that well.. Wake is just no good. The Deacons are 9-8 overall, 1-4 in the ACC, and its hard to see them winning another league game until they host Miami a month from now.

The MAC West is like the NBA's Atlantic Divison. First place Toledo has an 8-8 record and none of the other five teams are over .500. Thinks are better in the East where Ohio and Akron are 12-win teams. Big problem for those two teams is that this is only a one bid league..

Marist won again in the MAAC, to improve to 14-4, 6-1 in league play. Jared Jordan had a monster 26 point, 8 assist, 7 board game. He was haunted by the usual turnover problems though with 6.. then again thats less than Ishmael Smith's 8 against Duke. And Smith didn't have 1 assist.. brutal. Back to Marist though, the Red Foxes aren't running away with the league because suddenly hot Manhattan is also 6-1. The Jaspers were 3-8 before winning six straight out of nowhere (including a win over Rider last night).

Thoughts, thoughts, and more thoughts: UNC owned Clemson from the opening tip. Thankfully Clemson can block shots, otherwise the Heels would have won by 40. Even decent basketball fans have probably never heard of anybody on Clemson. The same can be said for Air Force, but every other team has a name player or a guy whose gotten some pub during the season (like Aj Graves on Butler.) This isn't necessarily a bad thing though. Good stories about how hard UNC's practice was after losing to Va Tech. That practice was probably better than just about any game you'll ever see.

Tyler Hansbrough's still putting up good numbers, but I get the sense his draft stock is dropping just about every week. Every time he shoots the ball from his waist, you can see a scout cringing.

3 OT's, 108 points, a crazy circus shot, two stars combining for 74 points, and a coach that looked like he was dying.. Texas-Oklahoma State had it all. I'm not sure which team I was more impressed with. Oklahoma State for managing to survive the end of regulation and three overtimes with their starting point guard and top defender having fouled out? Or Texas for simply going 3-OT's on the road at the #14 team in the country? The Cowboys hadn't lost a home game since February 13th last year, and even #7 Pitt couldn't topple the Boys at a semi-home game. Then again, Oklahoma State won with Tyler Hatch, a walk-on with 6 career field goals, playing 33 important minutes.

Felt like doing some predicting today.. so lets hope I get all 22 games right today. ESPN has 4 solid games tonight, starting with Iowa at Indiana and UCONN at Pitt at 7. The bettors don't think much of the road teams in this one.. as Indiana is favored by over 10, and Pitt by by 7. The Hoosiers are playing their best basketball and shouldn't have a problem at home.. I like them to cover the spread. UCONN hasn't proven they can beat a Top 10 team at home.. but the Huskies do have a lot of weapons, so you never know when they'll get hot. Pitt will win, but this game could be closer than expected.

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.. have the top 6 teams in the country ever lost on the same day? With the exception of #2 Florida who rocked South Carolina.. the other top teams were in serious danger of losing on Saturday. #1 UNC obviously ended up losing by 6, #3 UCLA won by a point, #4 Wisconsin won by 6 in a poorly played game at Northwestern, #5 OSU won by 2, and #6 Kansas won in overtime. UCLA, Wisconsin, and Kansas all were down at half before pulling out close victories.

But what separates a team like UCLA from a Washington is the ability to win close games on the road. The #24 Huskies by the way are in a tailspin, having lost 5 of 6 games.. the last two which have come down to the wire. Even UCONN can now claim to have accomplished something Washington hasn't.. winning a game away from home. The #22 version of the Huskies beat St John's in the Garden, while the #24 version lost in overtime at California.

Last year, when I had more time on my hands, I tried to predict just about every game during the week. I just went with my guy, and quickly picked all the winners regardless of the spread, and I'd usually come out with a 75-80% success rate. Saturday was the type of day that made predicting games so fun. 21 of the Top 25 teams are in action.. not to mention dozens of other great games.

Even though its only noon here in the Central Time Zone, there's already one major upset in the works. CAA leading Hofstra is losing to 4-12 Northeastern by 10 with 10 minutes to go. The Pride are coming off a huge overtime win at Drexel, their biggest win of the year. Hofstra's struggled away from home all year, but apparently they thrive in Philly, as they've beaten both Drexel and St. Joseph's. With VCU hosting a very beatable Towson team, the Pride could fall a game back in the standings.

Good post on the message board yesterday by Rocky about how hard it is to win on the road. The Top 10 teams in the country (before last night) were 13-13 overall on the road. The trend continued last night as Oklahoma State lost, but Pitt won to put the record at 14-14. The road struggles continue deeper into the Top 25.. as we saw teams like Duke, Tennessee, and Butler all lose on the road to supposedly weaker conference foes.

I think its safe to say that its harder to win on the road in non-conference play than in conference play. This is because in conference play, you know what the opponents do, you've been to the arenas, stayed in the same hotels, etc. In non-league play, its definitely harder to win on the road. This is why its even more unfair that certain BCS leagues have the ability to simply play home games for a couple months before conference play. I say unfair, not because I blame the UCONN's and Syracuse's for staying at home (why travel if you dont have to? why take kids out of school? why not give your fans as many games as possible to watch? why not build up good records), but because I blame the selection committee for not properly weighing where teams played their games.

Obviously a huge win for Wisconsin last night. Especially doing it on a night when Alando Tucker wasn't dominating on offense. Sure, he had 18 points and some big plays, but he was 1-6 from the line and often deferred to his teammates. But.. lets not get ahead of ourselves here and simply anoint Wisconsin as the Big Ten champs (though I do think they will win the conference), and claim that Ohio State is simply done..

As good as Wisconsin has been, and I think if the season ended today Tucker would be the Player of the Year, they've only won 2 road games all year.. Yes, they've beaten two top 10's in Ohio State and Pitt, but again, they're just 3-1 on the road. If Wisconsin played at Florida and UNC like OSU has.. then there's a very good chance they'd have 3 losses as well. When Missouri State beat Wisconsin on a neutral court.. no one suddenly anointed the Bears as the favorite to win the MVC, let alone deserve to be in the Top 10. I say this often, good teams are supposed to win at home. If Wisconsin went into Columbus and smacked around OSU then I'd be singing the Badgers praises all week long. But, at CHN anyways, we had Wisconsin #4 in the preseason and the favorites to win the Big Ten.. so this is a game they are supposed to win. On the flip side, lets not discount OSU as simply being an overrated bunch of jokers. I can safely say that out of all 336 teams in college basketball, at least 320 of them would come away 0-3 in games at Florida, UNC, and Wisconsin. Maybe 15 more would win 1 of those 3 on a good day, and maybe 1 lone team would win 2 of those 3. The Buckeyes have a lot of work simply figuring out how to utilize all their tools.. but this team will be fine..