Bracketology: Final NCAA Tournament Projection

    
March 11th, 2012

5:30 PM Sunday: Saint Bonaventure's A10 title knocks Northwestern out of the final at-large bid. Florida St moves up to a 4 seed, while there are multiple changes in the 13-14 change to account for Saint Bonaventure's entry. Michigan St locks up a #1 seed after winning the Big Ten. Seton Hall and Tennessee are my last two in, just edging out South Florida and Mississippi St. I'm about 50/50 on each of those 4 schools, and have little conviction about any of them.

 

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close. 

 

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

 

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs. Conference Champion.

 

 

ONE

Kentucky

Syracuse

North Carolina

Michigan St

 

TWO

Missouri

Duke

Ohio State

Kansas

 

THREE

Baylor

Marquette

Michigan

Wisconsin

 

FOUR

Indiana

Florida St

Georgetown

Louisville

 

FIVE

Murray St

Vanderbilt

Wichita St

Florida

 

SIX

Creighton

New Mexico

Temple

UNLV

 

SEVEN

Saint Mary's

San Diego St

Cincinnati

Memphis

 

EIGHT

Gonzaga

Notre Dame

Saint Louis

Iowa St

 

NINE

Kansas St

Alabama

UCONN

Purdue

 

TEN

Harvard

Southern Miss

West Virginia

Virginia

 

ELEVEN

Xavier

VCU

California

Colorado St

 

TWELVE

Long Beach St

BYU

NC State / Texas

Seton Hall  / Tennessee

 

THIRTEEN + 2

Colorado

Ohio

South Dakota St

St Bonaventure

 

FOURTEEN

Davidson

Belmont

New Mexico St

Montana

 

FIFTEEN

Loyola (MD)

Long Island

Lehigh

Detroit

 

SIXTEEN + 2

UNC-Asheville

Lamar

Vermont / Mississippi Valley St

Norfolk St / Western Kentucky

 

Last In: Tennessee, Seton Hall, Texas, NC State

 

First Out: Mississippi St, South Florida, Drexel, Northwestern

 

Further Four: Marshall, Washington, Iona, Ole Miss

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Northwestern

New (at-large): xx

 

 

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

 

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

 

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

 

America East - Vermont
A-10 - St Bonaventure
ACC - Florida St
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - New Mexico
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Colorado
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Vanderbilt
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico St
WCC - Saint Mary's

 

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.