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Bracketology: March 5th: Big Changes!

March 5th, 2009
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2009 Final Four

2009 Final Four


The Bracketology field is based on how the tourney looks "as of this moment." Arrows indicate the amount of seeds a team moved since the last update. (Just because a team won or lost doesn't necessarily mean they'll move substantially though.)

 

Why should you care what I have to say? Did you know, last year I was considered to have one of the Top 2 or 3 brackets (depending on the scoring rubric) amongst 53 national experts including Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish and the like).

 

Movement:

Previous update was March 1st. Arrows indicate movement by seed. Two arrows equals a change of two seeds, etc..

 

Lot of jockeying since the late Sunday night update, including some rare movement in the top seeds. Oklahoma's loss pushes Michigan St into a #1 seed for the first time, though Duke is hot on the trail for that spot as well. Kansas' loss to Texas Tech pushes Louisville up the #2, while Missouri helped solidify their spot in the 3rd tier. On the back end, Saint Mary's moves into the field for the first time in a month, thanks to a disastrous home loss by Kentucky. New Mexico moves into the next in line batch for the first time this year.

 

ONE  

UCONN*

North Carolina*

Pittsburgh

Michigan State*

 

TWO

Duke

Oklahoma 

Memphis*

Louisville 

 

THREE

Kansas*

Missouri

Wake Forest

Villanova

 

FOUR

Clemson

Washington*

Illinois

Xavier*

 

FIVE

Gonzaga*

LSU* 

Marquette

UCLA

 

SIX

Arizona State

Purdue

Florida St

Syracuse

 

SEVEN

West Virginia

Butler*

BYU

California

 

EIGHT

Texas

Utah*

Dayton

Tennessee

 

NINE

South Carolina

Minnesota

Wisconsin

UNLV

 

TEN

Ohio State

Boston College

Oklahoma St

Creighton*

 

ELEVEN

Utah State*

Arizona

Providence

Siena*

 

TWELVE

Penn St

Texas A&M

San Diego St  

Saint Mary's (new today)

 

THIRTEEN

Davidson*

VCU 

Western Kentucky*

Vermont*  

 

FOURTEEN

Buffalo*

American*

Weber St*  

North Dakota St* 

 

FIFTEEN

Cornell*

Stephen F Austin*

Robert Morris*

Jacksonville*

 

SIXTEEN + ONE

Tennessee-Martin*

CS Northridge* (new today)  

Morgan State*

Radford* / Alabama St*

 

* = Conference champion

Bold = Tournament Bid

 

League Winners (31)

- Winners are merely the first place team in the standings as of today. Ties are given to the higher RPI team.

 

America East - Vermont

A-10 - Xavier

ACC - North Carolina

Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville

Big 12 - Kansas

Big East - UCONN

Big Sky - Weber St

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State

Big West - CS Northridge

CAA - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Creighton

MWC - Utah

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin

Pac-10 - Washington

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

SWAC - Alabama St

Summit - North Dakota St

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Utah St

WCC - Gonzaga

** = New conference leaders

 

Last In: Texas A&M, Kentucky, San Diego St, Oklahoma St  (last)

 

Last Out: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Rhode Island, Michigan

Further Four: Florida, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Maryland

 

Dropped Out Today (at-large): Kentucky  (for Saint Mary's)

 

 

Comments

Shawn Siegel's picture

Hey All

Sorry I haven't been responding to comments on the last 2 bracketology posts.. I was out of town for a few days, and couldn't check things like usual. But I'm back so feel free to ask any questions or post the usual criticisms. I'll have another update tomorrow, followed by one's on Sunday, Monday, and next Wednesday..

CHN MemberCHN Writer500+ CHN PointsUgroup Member
Anonymous's picture

Jayhawks

"Kansas' loss to Missouri pushes Louisville up the #2, while Missouri helped solidify their spot in the 3rd tier."

Don't you mean Kansas' loss to Texas Tech? KU's loss to UM was like three weeks ago and they have since beat them.

Shawn Siegel's picture

Good catch

Meant Texas Tech, fixed it above.

CHN MemberCHN Writer500+ CHN PointsUgroup Member
NickP's picture

Providence

Can you discuss why Providence is in when they are 3-7 vs the top 50 and 4-5 in their last 9? I see other bubble teams that are more worthy.

Shawn Siegel's picture

Yea, Providence is a tough

Yea, Providence is a tough one. The big thing they have going is the 10-7 Big East record. Ultimately, I think the committee would see the 10 wins in a league widely considered to be the best or 2nd best out there, and fall for the bait. This is clearly not a top team, considering their best non-conference win is by a point over URI. If I were putting together my own field, I wouldn't include them, but I think in terms of predicting what the committee would do at this point, they're in.

CHN MemberCHN Writer500+ CHN PointsUgroup Member
Marc Mensa's picture

Michigan State

Do you honestly believe Michigan State is better than Memphis? I don't, and I doubt most objective Spartan fans would believe so either. I understand the fascination with BCS conferences, but there is nothing hokey about the talent Memphis consistently recruits and the wins they continue to notch.

Regardless, I am waiting for Sparty and the Big 10 to prove itself worthy on the court. Thus far this year, all they have been is a BCS conference in name only. The basketball has been horrible.

Jason Hirschhorn's picture

Yeah I wasn't so sure about

Yeah I wasn't so sure about that either. Same with Illinois being a four seed. I was shaky on that to begin with, but after their home loss to MSU I'll be very surprised if they get better than a 5.

CHN Member500+ CHN PointsUgroup Member
Shawn Siegel's picture

In terms of whose better, I

In terms of whose better, I genuinely dont know. But for purposes of bracketology, MSU has the higher RPI, higher SOS, higher non-conference SOS, a ridiculous 11-2 record against Top 50 teams vs 4-3 for Memphis, leading a higher RPI league, and hence every indicator points to them being seeded ahead.

CHN MemberCHN Writer500+ CHN PointsUgroup Member
Anonymous's picture

the only indicator you have

the only indicator you have is conference, and that is simply a red herring. By that criteria, a team from a non-bcs league, no matter the talent or regular season mark should lay no claim to a top seed. How stupid would the selection committee have looked had they seeded Texas above Memphis last year simply because of conference rpi or top 50 rpi wins.

I'm sorry, but Michigan State will not make it past the Sweet 16 round, and will be lucky to make it to the regionals. There simply isn't enough talent on that squad, regardless of their rpi.

Andy's picture

North Dakota State University

Watch our for these group of seniors who all red-shirted their freshmen year so they could play in the schools first year of tournament eligibility. This group has upset No. 6 Wisconsin and No. 7 Marquette in recent years. They have dominated the Summit League and would not surprise me if they won their first and second round games. GO BISON!

htownballer156's picture

Re: Michigan State

In response to the previous post; I completely disagree with Memphis being better than Michigan State. If we are talking about last year, then perhaps there is precedent for that argument, but we aren't. The Big ten has been rated the RPI #2 conference all season long, ahead of the ACC, and just behind the Big East. I am not sure where this big ten criticism is coming from? The league is extremely deep and competitive with a shot at 7 teams getting into the tournament. Conference USA is at a respectable #10 in the conference RPI rankings. This is not to infer that Memphis is not a good team, which they clearly are, but using objective perspective Michigan State's resume is more impressive. Michigan State at 24-5 has the most wins over RPI top 50 teams in the country with 11. If they beat Purdue and advance in the Big Ten tournament, then they deserve consideration for a #1 spot. Who has Memphis beat in the past 10 games besides Gonzaga? A better question would be, what would Michigan State's record be in Conference USA?

Anonymous's picture

Michigan State

The B10 has done nothing? Apparently you have not watched any games other than Memphis. B10 has the #2 rpi. State crushed Kansas, Minnesota beat Louisville on a neutral court, Illinois crushed Missouri in St Louis, Michigan beat Duke & UCLA, Northwestern beat Florida State, etc. MSU has 11 wins against the top 50 rpi, Memphis has 3. Get some facts if your going to critcize the B10.

Anonymous's picture

I'm a very objective

I'm a very objective Michigan State fan, and I don't believe there is any evidence that Memphis is better then Michigan State unless we are talking about last year (which has no bearing on this year). As above posters have mentioned, MSU has a far better resume, which is what the committee goes by. Personally, I think if the two meet up this year, it would be a great game & I'm not sure who would prevail. But if you say Memphis is definitely better, you just haven't followed college hoops this season.

Jeremy's picture

Why doesn't URI get a bid?

Why doesn't URI get a bid? They led Duke for all but 5 minutes AT CAMERON,and were it not for the generosity of the refs, should have won that game. Lost to Providence by 1 when Baron was sick, and beat Dayton. They've also won 6 straight and 10 of their last 11, they're second in the A10, and they're 2-5 against the top 50 (compared to Providence's 2-7). If Providence and Dayton are in, why shouldn't URI be???

Jeremy's picture

Why doesn't URI get a bid?

Why doesn't URI get a bid? They led Duke for all but 5 minutes AT CAMERON,and were it not for the generosity of the refs, should have won that game. Lost to Providence by 1 when Baron was sick, and beat Dayton. They've also won 6 straight and 10 of their last 11, they're second in the A10, and they're 2-5 against the top 50 (compared to Providence's 2-7). If Providence and Dayton are in, why shouldn't URI be???

Jeremy's picture

Why doesn't URI get a bid?

Why doesn't URI get a bid? They led Duke for all but 5 minutes AT CAMERON,and were it not for the generosity of the refs, should have won that game. Lost to Providence by 1 when Baron was sick, and beat Dayton. They've also won 6 straight and 10 of their last 11, they're second in the A10, and they're 2-5 against the top 50 (compared to Providence's 2-7). If Providence and Dayton are in, why shouldn't URI be???

Anonymous's picture

Exactly. URI deserves a bid

Exactly. URI deserves a bid as long as they take care of business tomorrow against Massachusetts. The only place I can find that is projecting URI in the tourney is The Hoops Report (http://www.thehoopsreport.com/bracket.aspx), which projects URI as an 11 seed.

If Penn State and Dayton get in (both teams that lost to URI), a Providence, which as you mentioned only beat URI by one, then Rhody should definitely dance. URI also lost to Xavier by just 2.

Marc Mensa's picture

Michigan State has played 1

Michigan State has played 1 team with similar talent as Memphis...UNC. The result was similar to last years Sweet 16 game.

I watched Michigan State lose to an average Northwestern squad at home and struggle to beat an abyssmal Indiana team. The notion this Spartan squad is any better than last years is optimistic.

Michigan State would lose, in my opinion, 2-3 games in C-USA. I don't think you would win at either UAB or UTEP, and certainly would lose at Memphis. Personally, I think Memphis would beat you on your own floor. Northwestern did.

Kentuckyforev18's picture

Michigan State

you guys forgot to mention that michigan state is 10-1 on the road, does any other team have an absurdly good road record like that?...7 of those wins came against teams in the RPI Top 72. Thats why their resume is so gaudy.

CHN MemberUgroup Member
Anonymous's picture

Memphis

You probably would beat us on our own floor if our star player went 0-17! That's the only reason you beat UAB.

Marc Mensa's picture

because the same guy

because the same guy (Antonio Anderson) who shut Drew Neitzel down last year was the same guy clamping Robert Vaden down this year. Its no accident Vaden (former Big 10 Freshman of the Year) is 3-32 against Memphis this year.

htownballer156's picture

Re: Michigan State

By equating Memphis as having equal talent to UNC you just destroyed any shred of objective credibility you had to begin with. Michigan State got slammed by UNC, and there is no changing that. It was early in the season and MSU was playing without 2 starters essentially. Suton was out, and Delvon Roe played 9 minutes coming off of double knee surgery, that is the starting front court right there. With how good UNC played we still don't win that game, but with our current roster it would at least be a game worth watching now. Same deal with the Maryland loss except that was mostly on MSU playing horribly. Bringing up last year has nothing to do with this year. MSU plays a 10 man rotation when healthy...it would be a good game between Memphis and MSU, but I highly doubt Memphis would outlast MSU...maybe we will all get lucky and find out for sure!

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