Bubble Board 3/13: Almost There..

    
March 13th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 3/13/10, 12:30 am.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral or road courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Sunday afternoon

  

 

Top 4 Rising teams*: Georgia Tech, Minnesota, San Diego St, Wake Forest

Top 4 Falling teams: South Florida, Dayton, Marquette, Ole Miss

*Based on difference between yesterday's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: UCONN, Cincinnati, Dayton, Wichita St, California

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Wake Forest, UNLV, UTEP, Utah St, Florida St

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

None (I've left on some of the fringe bubble teams for comparison's sake.)

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: California

Out: South Florida

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble.  The 19th & 20th teams (Missouri & Florida) represents the expanded list considering the committee will certainly not take VCU or UAB. (There are 15 champs already with bids, 5 more one-bid leagues yet to be decided, 25 other at-large locks (listed below), and 2 other champions on the BubbleBoard.. leaving 18 spots.)

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 8 35 2 11 2 12 2 0 132 129 127 2
1 Wake Forest 37 23 75 24 6 4 6 8 0 42 18 -3 21
2 UTEP 33 108 186 30 2 1 11 3 1 33 2 6 -4
3 UNLV 41 111 233 36 5 4 12 4 3 39 2 -16 18
4 Utah St** 26 97 83 22 2 1 10 5 2 22 -1 -6 5
5 Clemson 34 21 144 25 5 6 7 8 1 18 -7 -12 5
6 Florida St 42 53 219 33 4 6 9 6 0 21 -13 -11 -2
7 San Diego St 24 55 120 20 3 5 10 7 2 6 -14 -34 20
8 Georgia Tech 35 16 143 25 5 6 7 9 2 11 -14 -41 27
9 Notre Dame 44 37 214 33 5 4 5 8 3 14 -20 -24 4
10 Oklahoma St 29 25 132 22 4 7 7 9 1 0 -22 -21 -1
11 UAB 46 98 105 34 1 3 11 5 2 3 -32 -40 8
12 Rhode Island 39 100 35 28 1 4 10 6 2 -7 -36 -28 -8
13 Louisville 40 5 19 23 3 7 5 8 1 -14 -37 -41 4
14 California** 19 7 1 11 1 5 8 8 3 -27 -37 -46 9
15 Marquette 50 41 184 36 4 9 9 7 1 -3 -39 -30 -9
16 Washington 48 70 49 32 2 2 6 7 4 -8 -40 -43 3
17 VCU 64 134 84 45 3 2 7 8 4 4 -42 -42 0
18 Virginia Tech 56 162 344 51 3 4 8 7 2 7 -44 -41 -3
19 Missouri 45 49 191 34 4 7 6 8 3 -11 -45 -44 -1
20 Florida   51 34 120 34 3 8 8 8 1 -12 -46 -45 -1
21 Illinois 72 39 130 46 5 8 7 9 2 0 -46 -56 10
22 Ole Miss 59 85 146 42 2 6 9 6 1 -5 -47 -38 -9
23 Seton Hall 61 35 171 41 4 9 6 8 0 -7 -48 -51 3
24 Minnesota 65 49 63 41 4 6 6 9 4 -12 -53 -76 23
25 Memphis 54 68 53 35 2 5 7 6 4 -20 -55 -55 0
26 Dayton 52 24 22 31 3 8 5 10 2 -28 -59 -51 -8
27 South Florida 69 95 247 51 3 8 9 8 1 -9 -61 -39 -22
28 Cincinnati 60 16 43 35 4 12 6 11 0 -29 -64 -58 -6
29 Arizona St 62 80 64 41 2 6 6 7 3 -25 -65 -70 5
30 Charlotte 77 101 151 53 3 8 9 7 2 -13 -66 -71 5
31 UCONN 66 6 7 37 4 9 3 11 2 -30 -67 -66 -1
32 Wichita St 43 106 301 40 1 4 8 9 4 -28 -67 -67 0
33 Mississippi St 63 114 220 48 1 4 10 7 4 -19 -67 -72 5

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams Not Listed (25): Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Interesting how sometimes a team can be idle yet rise/fall in the #'s substantially. South Florida for example took a hit because a lot of there losses (ND & Marquette) now count as Top 50 losses.. this actually slots them more appropriately on the board. Similarly, Wake Forest jumps because some of their formerly bad ACC losses (Miami & NC State) now have moved into the Top 100 and don't look so bad.

 

UAB & VCU continue to hang strong in the BubbleBoard, despite their lack of chance at making the Dance. Thus Florida is really the last team in. The BubbleBoard favors Rhode Island over Illinois & Ole Miss. Note the strong push Minnesota is making. A win by the Gophers (or Illinois for that matter) may very well push them into the field, most likely at the expense of Florida. Mississippi St, who is considered a potential tourney team, is very little respected here. The win over Florida didn't do that much in the #'s because the Gators are fading themselves.

 

What do you think about the Bubble today?