Bubble Board 3/7: Ranking the Bubble Teams

    
March 7th, 2010 by Shawn Siegel
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RPI #'s updated as of 3/07/10, 2:00 pm.

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Tuesday.

  

 

Top 5 Rising teams*: UTEP, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Wichita St, Old Dominion

Top 5 Falling teams: Cincinnati, Rhode Island, Dayton, UAB, Missouri

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: Cincinnati, California, UCONN, Minnesota, Dayton

Top 5 Dangerous teams: UTEP, Clemson, UNLV, St Mary's, Florida St

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Richmond moved to at-large "locks."

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: South Florida

Out: Dayton

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 29 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 20 teams with room to make the tournament.

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 9 35 2 11 2 10 2 0 127 124 89 35
1 Clemson 24 25 156 20 5 6 7 6 0 26 7 6 1
2 UTEP** 41 129 197 36 3 1 9 3 1 38 2 -21 23
3 Wake Forest 34 31 88 23 5 5 6 7 2 17 -6 0 -6
4 Utah St** 31 106 82 26 2 1 8 5 2 17 -9 -10 1
5 Florida St 32 38 224 27 4 6 9 5 1 18 -10 -15 5
6 UNLV 47 84 209 37 4 4 10 4 3 23 -14 -12 -2
7 Saint Mary's 45 139 75 35 2 3 10 3 1 19 -16 -16 0
8 Oklahoma St 28 22 125 21 4 6 6 8 1 5 -16 -16 0
9 Old Dominion** 37 86 11 25 1 3 9 8 1 -3 -28 -38 10
10 Virginia Tech 50 131 343 46 3 4 8 6 1 14 -32 -52 20
11 UAB 40 103 93 31 1 5 11 4 1 -2 -33 -21 -12
12 Missouri 36 53 200 29 4 7 6 7 2 -4 -34 -25 -9
13 Louisville 30 7 19 18 2 6 5 7 1 -17 -35 -27 -8
14 San Diego St 33 60 123 26 2 5 8 7 2 -9 -35 -37 2
15 VCU 62 140 116 46 3 1 7 7 4 11 -35 -40 5
16 Rhode Island 39 62 27 26 1 4 9 6 2 0 -36 -23 -23
17 Ole Miss 56 61 145 39 2 5 9 5 1 2 -37 -40 3
18 South Florida 65 52 239 47 3 4 8 7 2 7 -40 -41 1
19 Georgia Tech 44 24 131 30 4 7 5 9 2 -10 -40 -36 -4
20 Florida   53 37 135 36 3 7 7 6 1 -5 -41 -40 -1
21 California** 19 10 1 11 1 5 6 8 3 -32 -43 -52 9
22 Northeastern 71 82 9 44 3 3 11 7 6 0 -44 -46 2
23 Notre Dame 57 54 216 42 3 3 4 7 3 -3 -44 -41 -3
24 Washington 49 55 47 32 2 2 4 7 4 -13 -44 -53 9
25 Memphis 46 85 60 32 2 5 7 5 3 -13 -45 -48 3
26 Seton Hall 54 21 172 37 3 8 5 7 0 -13 -49 -65 16
27 Marquette 58 51 192 41 3 7 7 6 2 -10 -51 -45 -6
28 Dayton 51 39 20 31 3 7 5 9 2 -21 -52 -34 -18
29 Arizona St 52 70 80 35 2 6 6 6 2 -18 -53 -59 6
30 Illinois 73 49 112 47 4 7 6 9 2 -8 -54 -54 0
31 Wichita St 43 126 298 41 1 3 8 8 3 -16 -56 -70 14
32 Charlotte 66 86 158 46 3 8 9 7 2 -13 -59 -59 0
33 UCONN 55 3 6 31 3 7 3 10 3 -33 -63 -62 -1
34 Mississippi St 69 113 231 52 1 4 9 7 4 -22 -74 -68 -6
35 Cincinnati 68 14 43 40 2 9 4 10 0 -37 -76 -52 -24
36 Minnesota 75 44 71 46 3 6 4 9 5 -33 -79 -75 -4

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

After a promising start to the season, Dayton's completely played their way out of the tourney, going .500 in A10 play and losing 5 of their last 7. The same can be said for fellow A10 team Rhode Island, who lost a pair of weak road games to sub-150 teams St Bonaventure & UMASS in the finals weeks. The BubbleBoard still respects Rhode Island's season-long accomplishments enough to keep them in the deserving group, but the reality is that the committee won't be nearly as kind as the computers.

 

As usual, since the committee will not take VCU & Northeastern no matter how much the computers like them, I've added the lightly shaded row to highlight the realistic final deserving team, which today is Notre Dame. The BubbleBoard has little respect of probable tournament teams Illinois & Marquette, instead favoring Ole Miss & South Florida. South Florida is an interesting team, 9-9 in Big East play with 3 Top 50 wins is quite on par with the likes of Marquette, UCONN, Notre Dame, etc (if not better) but for whatever reason they don't get much respect nationally. This is probably a case of brand-name bias coming through.. the computers though don't know one team from another.

 

Amazing how Georgia Tech is so closed to the bubble after being touted as a Top 25 for much of the season.

 

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