Bubble Watch: Dogfight in the A10
Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.
As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament. (Records listed only against D1 teams.)
This week's notes: Minnesota and NC State join the field of 68 in place of Northwestern and Texas. Northwestern has lost 6 of 8 games and is fading fast. BYU and Stanford still hang onto the bubble despite dropping down the list. Stanford hangs on, mostly because I figure the committee will be biased towards putting 2 Pac-12 teams into the field. BYU hangs on by default, because no other contender stepped up and had a big week. BYU lost a home game to LMU, which is hard to justify, but they now have 3 games in a row against Top 50ish teams, so have a chance to redeem themselves.
Notre Dame enters the picture due to their win over Syracuse, and with the understanding that the committee will overrate power-conference home wins against marquee teams. Belmont, despite some early season buzz, no longer has a place in the bubble discussion. Similarly, Virginia Tech is no longer included in Bubble Watch, but they have more than enough time to win some ACC games and get back on track.
Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Virginia Tech
Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:
|13||Long Beach St||BW||12-6||40||37||38||37|
Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Belmont