Bubble Watch: Dogfight in the A10

    
January 31st, 2012

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

 

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament. (Records listed only against D1 teams.)

 

This week's notes: Minnesota and NC State join the field of 68 in place of Northwestern and Texas. Northwestern has lost 6 of 8 games and is fading fast. BYU and Stanford still hang onto the bubble despite dropping down the list. Stanford hangs on, mostly because I figure the committee will be biased towards putting 2 Pac-12 teams into the field. BYU hangs on by default, because no other contender stepped up and had a big week. BYU lost a home game to LMU, which is hard to justify, but they now have 3 games in a row against Top 50ish teams, so have a chance to redeem themselves.

 

Notre Dame enters the picture due to their win over Syracuse, and with the understanding that the committee will overrate power-conference home wins against marquee teams. Belmont, despite some early season buzz, no longer has  a place in the bubble discussion. Similarly, Virginia Tech is no longer included in Bubble Watch, but they have more than enough time to win some ACC games and get back on track.

 

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI Sagarin KenPom AP
  10 New Mexico MWC 14-4 59 28 28  
  11 Saint Louis A10 14-4 51 24 44  
  11 Southern Miss CUSA 15-3 15 50 62  
  11 Xavier A10 13-6 43 54 51  
  11 Iowa St B12 14-5 53 45 44  
  12 Memphis CUSA 13-6 28 26 27  
12 Minnesota B10 15-5 45 44 45  
12 NC State ACC 15-5 55 53 54  
13 BYU WCC 15-5 56 29 31  
13 Stanford P12 15-5 80 44 49  
Bubble                
    UCF CUSA 14-4 57 87 89  
  Northwestern B10 12-7 37 62 64  
  Texas B12 12-7 70 34 24  
    Arizona P12 13-7 72 59 63  
    Ole Miss SEC 13-6 34 97 110  
    Oregon P12 15-5 58 90 102  
    Notre Dame BE 12-8 98 85 82  
    Arkansas SEC 14-5 61 72 81  
  Wyoming MWC 14-3 88 55 43  

 

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Virginia Tech

 

 

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI Sagarin KenPom AP
  12 Marshall CUSA 12-6 46 63 75  
  12 Middle Tennessee SB 18-2 52 30 30  34
Bubble                
  13 Oral Roberts SUM 18-4 44 56 46  
  13 Long Beach St BW 12-6 40 37 38 37
   13 Davidson SOU 13-4 48 60 63  
 14 Iona MAAC 15-5 50 58 61  36
  14 Nevada WAC 14-3 73 95 99  

 

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Belmont


We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :