Bubble Watch: Miami, Arizona Back From the Dead

    
February 7th, 2012
Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

 

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament. (Records listed only against D1 teams.)

 

This week's notes: Mississippi and Colorado State enter the field this week in place of Seton Hall and Dayton. Home losses to URI and Duquesne have crushed Dayton's hopes, while Seton Hall has been a free-fall in the Big East.

 

None of the computer rankings love Ole Miss, but the computer rankings don't care that the Rebels are in the SEC (unlike the biased human voters.) Colorado St is an interesting case because of their great RPI. The Rams don't have a single "bad" loss, but the problem is that they have few "good" wins.

 

Miami and Arizona are both back from the dead after mid-year slides. The problem for Arizona is that with Washington leading the Pac-12 and California in the field, there's really no room for a 3rd Pac-12 team. Miami has a much better chance of making the field due to ACC respect.

 

Middle Tennessee remains in the field as the Sun Belt champion, but were they to lose the conference title, their at-large hopes took a hit with a loss to Denver. MTSU has the record and computer respect of an at-large team, but realistically a Sun Belt team needs to go above and beyond to gain the committee's respect.

 

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI Sagarin KenPom AP
  10 California P12 18-6 49 26 21  
11 Notre Dame BE 15-8 56 52 47 26
  11 New Mexico MWC 19-4 46 17 11  33
  11 Minnesota BE 17-7 50 45 45  
  11 NC State ACC 17-7 53 55 61  
  12 BYU WCC 20-6 43 31 34 38
  12 Cincinnati BE 16-7 98 51 50  
12 Xavier A10 15-8 54 59 57  
12 Ole Miss SE 14-8 51 95 104  
12 Colorado St MWC 15-7 26 92 103  
Bubble                
    Texas B12 15-9 57 28 23  
  Seton Hall BE 15-8 32 58 69  
  Wyoming MWC 18-5 69 60 54  
  Arizona P12 16-8 63 40 36  
    Arkansas SEC 16-7 60 75 75  
  Miami ACC 14-7 58 54 52  38
    UCF CUSA 17-6 67 94 97  
    Marshall CUSA 14-9 61 77 76  
    Northwestern B10 14-8 37 67 71  

 

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Dayton, Stanford

 

 

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI Sagarin KenPom AP
11 Washington P12 16-7 76 64 64  
Bubble                
13 Middle Tennessee SB 21-4 44 42 42  
  13 Oral Roberts SUM 21-5 47 63 73  
  13 Long Beach St BW 17-6 36 43 46 32
   13 Davidson SOU 18-5 66 60 62  
   14 Iona MAAC 19-5 58 45 49  35t
  14 Nevada WAC 19-4 72 102 107  

 

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: none


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