Bubble Watch: Northwestern Not Dead Yet

    
February 14th, 2012
Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

 

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament. (Records listed only against D1 teams.)

 

This week's notes: Seton Hall & Texas both return to the field of 68 this week after having dropped out. Texas is a darling of the computer rankings despite the fact they haven't beaten a ranked team all season.

 

Ole Miss & Colorado St each drop out after shortly being the field. Ole Miss is the opposite of Texas.. while they have very similar RPI's the other two rankings despise the Rebels.

 

Miami, despite losing to FSU this week, still looks good in the computer rankings. If they beat UNC on Wednesday, Miami will undoubtedly enter the field. They could replace NC State, who has a brutal stretch of games coming up against Duke, FSU, and UNC. NC State is in the field because of their 7-3 ACC record, but they've gotten lucky with scheduling. That will now change.

 

Right now, Washington is in the field over Arizona in the Pac-12. My guess is that the committee will want two Pac-12 teams in the Dance, and it might simply come down to whoever is 1-2 in the standings. (Right now, Washington has a 1-game lead on Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado.)

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI Sagarin KenPom AP
  11 West Virginia P12 16-10 41 37 40  
11 Kansas St BE 17-8 53 30 28  
11 Illinois B10 16-9 46 42 44  
  11 NC State ACC 18-7 51 50 52  
  12 Washington P12 17-8 62 65 67  
  12 Cincinnati BE 17-8 92 47 42  
  13 Minnesota B10 17-8 61 49 45  
13 Seton Hall BE 17-8 31 51 59  
  13 Xavier A10 16-9 57 58 57  
13 Texas B12 16-9 49 23 21  
Bubble                
    Miami B12 15-8 35 48 41  
  Ole Miss BE 15-9 50 100 110  
    Wyoming MWC 16-6 65 57 50  
    Arizona P12 18-8 66 41 39  
  Northwestern SEC 15-9 44 56 60  
  Colorado St ACC 15-8 30 93 52  
    UCF CUSA 16-7 59 92 91  
    Arkansas CUSA 17-8 69 79 94  
    Oregon P12 18-7 67 84 88  

 

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Marshall

 

 

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

 

Change  Seed  Team Conf. Record RPI Sagarin KenPom AP
12 Long Beach St BW 17-6 42 40 47 30
Bubble                
  12 Middle Tennessee SB 22-4 38 44 53  
  13 Oral Roberts SUM 23-5 45 66 78  
13 Akron MAC 17-7 60 62 62  
  14 Nevada WAC 20-4 58 99 105  

 

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Davidson, Iona


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