BubbleBoard 2/10: Ranking the Bubble Teams
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a challeging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.
The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.
Top 5 Faker teams*: UCONN, Arizona, Louisville, Texas Tech, California
Top 5 Dangerous teams: UNLV, St Mary's, Rhode Island, UAB, William & Mary
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Top 5 Rising teams*: Texas A&M, Maryland, Northeastern, Richmond, Texas Tech
Top 5 Falling teams: Seton Hall, Arizona, Wichita St, Florida St, Xavier
*Based on difference seen previous week's BubbleBoard
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
New Mexico was moved to the lock category. Illinois, Notre Dame, Washington, Louisiana Tech, and Virginia added to teams tracked.
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
Teams with Total points approaching 0 or above are virtual locks to make the Tourney if it started today. However, note the two CAA teams (VCU, William & Mary) that perform not only quite well in the RPI, but particularly well here. Seems unlikely either will make the tourney as an at-large bid based on what you hear from "bracketologists" but perhaps they are being under-appreciated? (If you assume those 2 will NOT make the tourney as of now, the next 2 teams would be Northeastern (another CAA team) and Illinois. If you assume N'Eastern would be excluded like the above teams, Notre Dame becomes the last in.)
Maryland & South Florida move into the yellow at-large area, while Seton Hall & Wichita St fall out.
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 20 teams with room to make the tournament.
| Team | RPI | SOS | NCSOS | Computer | T50 W | T50 L | R/N W | R/N L | L100 L | Bonus = | Total = | Was | Dif | |
| # | Kansas | 1 | 14 | 58 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 94 | 79 | 15 |
| 1 | Rhode Island | 15 | 73 | 31 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 16 | 20 | -4 |
| 2 | UNLV | 32 | 99 | 203 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 15 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | UAB | 30 | 102 | 106 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 11 | -9 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 19 | 12 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 1 | -29 | 30 |
| 5 | Richmond | 31 | 66 | 65 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22 | -1 | -19 | 18 |
| 6 | Saint Mary's | 44 | 141 | 63 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31 | -3 | -5 | 2 |
| 7 | Baylor | 28 | 30 | 145 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -4 | 11 | -15 |
| 8 | William & Mary | 51 | 84 | 43 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 27 | -8 | -19 | 11 |
| 9 | VCU | 56 | 134 | 102 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 25 | -17 | -22 | 5 |
| 10 | Dayton | 34 | 39 | 19 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -19 | -32 | 13 |
| 11 | Xavier | 26 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | -4 | -20 | -2 | -18 |
| 12 | Charlotte* | 45 | 151 | 195 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 19 | -20 | -17 | -3 |
| 13 | Missouri | 46 | 77 | 205 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 16 | -20 | -7 | -13 |
| 14 | Oklahoma St | 36 | 29 | 142 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -20 | -7 | -13 |
| 15 | Old Dominion | 35 | 70 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | -22 | -17 | -5 |
| 16 | Florida St | 37 | 52 | 209 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -28 | -8 | -20 |
| 17 | South Florida | 49 | 43 | 214 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -28 | -42 | 14 |
| 18 | Clemson | 41 | 38 | 133 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -29 | -28 | -1 |
| 19 | Maryland | 42 | 33 | 132 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -29 | -56 | 27 |
| 20 | Ole Miss | 39 | 60 | 98 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | -6 | -34 | -32 | -2 |
| 21 | Northeastern* | 54 | 62 | 8 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | -1 | -35 | -55 | 20 |
| 22 | Illinois | 65 | 82 | 139 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 10 | -35 | X | X |
| 23 | Notre Dame | 59 | 68 | 219 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -37 | X | X |
| 24 | Utah St* | 48 | 104 | 126 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | -2 | -38 | -40 | 2 |
| 25 | Cincinnati | 53 | 20 | 61 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | -7 | -39 | -39 | 0 |
| 26 | Washington | 52 | 47 | 36 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -11 | -43 | X | X |
| 27 | California | 25 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | -30 | -44 | -44 | 0 |
| 28 | San Diego St | 38 | 54 | 127 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 2 | -17 | -46 | -34 | -12 |
| 29 | Florida | 55 | 89 | 214 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | -4 | -46 | -44 | -2 |
| 30 | Tulsa | 60 | 147 | 212 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -47 | -44 | -3 |
| 31 | UTEP* | 58 | 108 | 182 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -4 | -48 | -55 | 7 |
| 32 | Mississippi St | 72 | 150 | 242 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -49 | -37 | -12 |
| 33 | Texas Tech | 29 | 16 | 93 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -32 | -51 | -68 | 17 |
| 34 | Louisiana Tech | 73 | 242 | 324 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 13 | -52 | X | X |
| 35 | Wichita St | 50 | 142 | 321 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | -6 | -52 | -30 | -22 |
| 36 | Virginia Tech | 63 | 236 | 345 | 59 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -52 | -63 | 11 |
| 37 | Seton Hall | 64 | 8 | 171 | 41 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -13 | -54 | -28 | -26 |
| 38 | Minnesota | 62 | 36 | 59 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -17 | -55 | -55 | 0 |
| 39 | Louisville | 43 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -32 | -56 | -41 | -15 |
| 40 | Northwestern | 67 | 79 | 255 | 50 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -14 | -64 | -52 | -12 |
| 41 | Marquette | 61 | 57 | 213 | 44 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | -23 | -67 | -51 | -16 |
| 42 | UCONN | 57 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -37 | -70 | -55 | -15 |
| 43 | Arizona | 69 | 11 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -37 | -75 | -53 | -22 |
| 44 | Virginia | 91 | 109 | 296 | 66 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -10 | -76 | X | X |
| 45 | North Carolina | 79 | 22 | 104 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -30 | -78 | -71 | -7 |
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Texas
As teams move in and out of bubble consideration,
the teams tracked will change in future weeks.
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