BubbleBoard 2/17: Ranking the Bubble Teams
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a challeging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.
The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.
Top 5 Rising teams*: Virginia Tech, Baylor, UCONN, Richmond, Old Dominion
Top 5 Falling teams: Notre Dame, Northeastern, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia
*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard
Top 5 Faker teams*: Texas Tech, Arizona, North Carolina, California, Seton Hall
Top 5 Dangerous teams: Baylor, Richmond, UNLV, UAB, VCU
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
Georgia Tech moved off of the lock category, and back onto the BubbleBoard. Arizona St & Memphis added to team's tracked.
Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:
In: Cincinnati, Utah St, Virginia Tech
Out: Maryland, Ole Miss, South Florida
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
Virginia Tech is this week's big mover, with a road win, a win over fellow bubble team Virginia and a 3rd win over "lock" team Wake Forest. On the down-side, Notre Dame lost to mediocre Seton Hall & St. John's. Also, their 2 wins over South Florida no longer count as Top 50 wins as the Bulls struggled and dropped from 49th to 55th in the RPI. Baylor is seemingly on the verge of being a lock, however their 5 remaining games are all against Top 100 teams, and 3 are on the road, meaning multiple losses are not out of the question. Georgia Tech, having lost 3 of 5, and sitting at .500 in the ACC, can no longer be considered a sure thing. Their game against Maryland this Saturday now has major bubble implications for both teams. UCONN & Louisville obviously got boosts from their big Top 10 league wins, but according to the #'s below, both still have some work to do.
How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 24 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do.
| Team | RPI | SOS | NCSOS | Computer | T50 W | T50 L | R/N W | R/N L | L100 L | Bonus = | Total = | Was | Dif | |
| # | Kansas | 1 | 13 | 46 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 97 | 94 | 3 |
| 1 | Baylor | 28 | 24 | 124 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 42 | 21 | -4 | 25 |
| 2 | Richmond** | 27 | 49 | 66 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 39 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | 18 | 6 | 48 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Georgia Tech | 29 | 14 | 110 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 25 | 5 | X | X |
| 5 | UNLV | 35 | 58 | 202 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 3 | 15 | -12 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 22 | 37 | 30 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 16 | -15 |
| 7 | UAB | 36 | 91 | 93 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 8 | Old Dominion** | 40 | 96 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 | -2 | -22 | 20 |
| 9 | Dayton | 34 | 33 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 11 | -10 | -19 | 9 |
| 10 | Saint Mary's | 46 | 113 | 70 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 22 | -12 | -3 | -9 |
| 11 | William & Mary | 48 | 86 | 45 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -14 | -8 | -6 |
| 12 | Xavier | 21 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | -2 | -15 | -20 | 5 |
| 13 | Clemson | 32 | 31 | 135 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -19 | -29 | 10 |
| 14 | VCU | 63 | 134 | 102 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 25 | -20 | -17 | -3 |
| 15 | Oklahoma St | 38 | 36 | 142 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -22 | -20 | -2 |
| 16 | Charlotte | 41 | 117 | 169 | 35 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 12 | -23 | -20 | -3 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech | 44 | 180 | 344 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | -25 | -52 | 27 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 52 | 18 | 53 | 31 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 5 | -27 | -39 | 12 |
| 19 | Missouri | 47 | 63 | 193 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -27 | -20 | -7 |
| 20 | Florida St | 43 | 53 | 216 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -29 | -28 | -1 |
| 21 | Utah St** | 45 | 107 | 113 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -31 | -38 | 7 |
| 22 | San Diego St | 37 | 75 | 140 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | -4 | -34 | -46 | 12 |
| 23 | South Florida | 55 | 45 | 232 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -34 | -28 | -6 |
| 24 | Louisville | 30 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -20 | -38 | -56 | 18 |
| 25 | UTEP** | 56 | 133 | 178 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -40 | -48 | 8 |
| 26 | Ole Miss | 51 | 68 | 118 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | -6 | -42 | -34 | -8 |
| 27 | Maryland | 42 | 28 | 134 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | -13 | -42 | -29 | -13 |
| 28 | California** | 23 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | -30 | -43 | -44 | 1 |
| 29 | Illinois | 71 | 79 | 145 | 48 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | -44 | -35 | -9 |
| 30 | Wichita St | 49 | 130 | 322 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | -1 | -46 | -52 | 6 |
| 31 | Washington | 53 | 44 | 40 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -16 | -49 | -43 | -6 |
| 32 | UCONN | 50 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -21 | -49 | -70 | 21 |
| 33 | Louisiana Tech | 76 | 253 | 328 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -49 | -52 | 3 |
| 34 | Tulsa | 67 | 129 | 212 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -50 | -47 | -3 |
| 35 | Florida | 64 | 76 | 174 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | -9 | -54 | -46 | -8 |
| 36 | Northeastern | 60 | 94 | 15 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 5 | -16 | -55 | -35 | -20 |
| 37 | Marquette | 59 | 71 | 221 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | -12 | -56 | -67 | 11 |
| 38 | Arizona St | 65 | 73 | 84 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -16 | -58 | X | X |
| 39 | Memphis | 58 | 74 | 71 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | -22 | -60 | X | X |
| 40 | Mississippi St | 62 | 109 | 234 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | -14 | -62 | -49 | -13 |
| 41 | Seton Hall | 57 | 16 | 151 | 37 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -29 | -66 | -54 | -12 |
| 42 | Northwestern | 74 | 79 | 255 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -14 | -68 | -64 | -4 |
| 43 | Texas Tech | 39 | 8 | 76 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 0 | -44 | -69 | -51 | -18 |
| 44 | Notre Dame | 78 | 72 | 210 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -17 | -71 | -37 | -34 |
| 45 | Minnesota | 80 | 39 | 64 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | -24 | -72 | -55 | -17 |
| 46 | North Carolina | 81 | 12 | 77 | 48 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | -38 | -86 | -78 | -8 |
| 47 | Arizona | 86 | 26 | 14 | 49 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -42 | -91 | -75 | -16 |
| 48 | Virginia | 96 | 102 | 302 | 69 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -25 | -93 | -76 | -17 |
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas
As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.
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