BubbleBoard: Selection Sunday Final

    
March 14th, 2010
RPI #'s updated as of 3/14/10, 12:30 am.

 

 

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral or road courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

 

This is the final BubbleBoard update of the season!

  

 

Top 3 Rising teams*: Minnesota, Mississippi St, Georgia Tech

Top 4 Falling teams: UTEP, California, Illinois

*Based on difference between yesterday's BubbleBoard

 

Top 5 Faker teams*: California, Memphis, Rhode Island, Louisville, Florida

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Wake Forest, UNLV, UTEP, Florida St, Utah St

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

 

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

San Diego St & Washington now auto-bids. Removed ASU, Charlotte, Cincy, UCONN, Dayton, Wichita St

 

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Minnesota

Out: California

  

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into the bubble.  The 16th-18th teams (Missouri, Cal, VT) represents the expanded list considering the committee will certainly not take VCU or UAB, and most likely isnt taking URI either. (Along with the 27 current champs, there are 23 other at-large locks (listed below), 4 other tourney champs from within that 23, leaving 15 spots remaining.

 

  Team RPI SOS NCSOS Computer T50 W T50 L R/N W R/N L L100 L Bonus = Total = Was Dif
# Kansas 1 8 35 2 11 2 12 2 0 132 129 129 0
1 Wake Forest 37 23 75 24 6 4 6 8 0 42 18 19 -1
2 UNLV 49 111 233 41 5 4 12 5 3 37 -4 2 -6
3 Utah St 31 97 83 25 2 1 10 6 2 20 -5 -1 -4
4 Clemson 34 21 144 25 5 6 7 8 1 18 -7 -7 0
5 UTEP 39 108 186 34 2 1 11 4 2 26 -8 2 -10
6 Georgia Tech 33 16 143 24 5 6 8 9 2 13 -10 -14 4
7 Florida St 42 53 219 33 4 6 9 6 0 21 -13 -13 0
8 Notre Dame 44 37 214 33 5 4 5 8 3 14 -20 -20 0
9 Oklahoma St 29 25 132 22 4 7 7 9 1 0 -22 -22 0
10 UAB 46 98 105 34 1 3 11 5 2 3 -32 -32 0
11 Louisville 38 5 19 22 3 7 5 8 1 -14 -36 -37 1
12 Minnesota 58 49 63 37 5 6 7 9 4 1 -36 -53 17
13 Marquette 50 41 184 36 4 9 9 7 1 -3 -39 -39 0
14 VCU 65 134 84 46 3 2 7 8 4 4 -42 -42 0
15 Rhode Island 40 100 35 29 1 5 10 7 2 -15 -43 -36 -7
16 Missouri 45 49 191 34 4 7 6 8 3 -11 -45 -45 0
17 California 22 7 1 13 1 6 8 9 3 -34 -46 -37 -9
18 Virginia Tech 60 162 344 53 3 4 8 7 2 7 -47 -44 -3
19 Florida   54 34 120 36 3 8 8 8 1 -12 -48 -46 -2
20 Seton Hall 61 35 171 41 4 9 6 8 0 -7 -48 -48 0
21 Ole Miss 62 85 146 44 2 6 9 6 1 -5 -49 -47 -2
22 Mississippi St 56 114 220 44 2 4 11 7 4 -6 -51 -67 16
23 Memphis 53 68 53 35 2 5 7 6 4 -20 -55 -55 0
24 Illinois 75 39 130 48 5 9 7 10 2 -8 -55 -46 -9
25 South Florida 71 95 247 53 3 8 9 8 1 -9 -62 -61 -1

 

 

*Teams leading their leagues

 

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

 

Lock Teams Not Listed (23): Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond

 

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Minnesota's rise is complete as the BubbleBoard now says their in. Quite a turnaround considering they were about 40th on the larger list just a week or two back.  As usual, the computers still favor UAB, VCU, and Rhode Island so I've shown the expanded bubble. In reality, the final 2 spots in the field may come down to 2 of Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St, and Virginia Tech. The BubbleBoard favors Minnesota & VT in that scenario. Cal & Missouri are barely hanging in, and may very well be over-seeded in the tournament.. the BubbleBoard says these 2 are overrated and potential 1st round tournament victims. Utah St & UTEP, who both lost yesterday, are still tournament worthy. UTEP's seeding definitely took a blow though, while the Utah St loss shouldn't effect things too much because NMSU is a quality opponent.

 

What do you think about the Bubble today?