BubbleBoard: Selection Sunday Final
The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral or road courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.
This is the final BubbleBoard update of the season!
Top 3 Rising teams*: Minnesota, Mississippi St, Georgia Tech
Top 4 Falling teams: UTEP, California, Illinois
*Based on difference between yesterday's BubbleBoard
Top 5 Faker teams*: California, Memphis, Rhode Island, Louisville, Florida
Top 5 Dangerous teams: Wake Forest, UNLV, UTEP, Florida St, Utah St
*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.
Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:
San Diego St & Washington now auto-bids. Removed ASU, Charlotte, Cincy, UCONN, Dayton, Wichita St
Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:
In: Minnesota
Out: California
How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:
The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into the bubble. The 16th-18th teams (Missouri, Cal, VT) represents the expanded list considering the committee will certainly not take VCU or UAB, and most likely isnt taking URI either. (Along with the 27 current champs, there are 23 other at-large locks (listed below), 4 other tourney champs from within that 23, leaving 15 spots remaining.
| Team | RPI | SOS | NCSOS | Computer | T50 W | T50 L | R/N W | R/N L | L100 L | Bonus = | Total = | Was | Dif | |
| # | Kansas | 1 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 132 | 129 | 129 | 0 |
| 1 | Wake Forest | 37 | 23 | 75 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42 | 18 | 19 | -1 |
| 2 | UNLV | 49 | 111 | 233 | 41 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 37 | -4 | 2 | -6 |
| 3 | Utah St | 31 | 97 | 83 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -5 | -1 | -4 |
| 4 | Clemson | 34 | 21 | 144 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 18 | -7 | -7 | 0 |
| 5 | UTEP | 39 | 108 | 186 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 26 | -8 | 2 | -10 |
| 6 | Georgia Tech | 33 | 16 | 143 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 13 | -10 | -14 | 4 |
| 7 | Florida St | 42 | 53 | 219 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 21 | -13 | -13 | 0 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 44 | 37 | 214 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 14 | -20 | -20 | 0 |
| 9 | Oklahoma St | 29 | 25 | 132 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | -22 | -22 | 0 |
| 10 | UAB | 46 | 98 | 105 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -32 | -32 | 0 |
| 11 | Louisville | 38 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | -14 | -36 | -37 | 1 |
| 12 | Minnesota | 58 | 49 | 63 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 1 | -36 | -53 | 17 |
| 13 | Marquette | 50 | 41 | 184 | 36 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1 | -3 | -39 | -39 | 0 |
| 14 | VCU | 65 | 134 | 84 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | -42 | -42 | 0 |
| 15 | Rhode Island | 40 | 100 | 35 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 2 | -15 | -43 | -36 | -7 |
| 16 | Missouri | 45 | 49 | 191 | 34 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 3 | -11 | -45 | -45 | 0 |
| 17 | California | 22 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 3 | -34 | -46 | -37 | -9 |
| 18 | Virginia Tech | 60 | 162 | 344 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 7 | -47 | -44 | -3 |
| 19 | Florida | 54 | 34 | 120 | 36 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | -12 | -48 | -46 | -2 |
| 20 | Seton Hall | 61 | 35 | 171 | 41 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 0 | -7 | -48 | -48 | 0 |
| 21 | Ole Miss | 62 | 85 | 146 | 44 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 1 | -5 | -49 | -47 | -2 |
| 22 | Mississippi St | 56 | 114 | 220 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 4 | -6 | -51 | -67 | 16 |
| 23 | Memphis | 53 | 68 | 53 | 35 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | -20 | -55 | -55 | 0 |
| 24 | Illinois | 75 | 39 | 130 | 48 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | -8 | -55 | -46 | -9 |
| 25 | South Florida | 71 | 95 | 247 | 53 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 1 | -9 | -62 | -61 | -1 |
*Teams leading their leagues
Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off
NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule
Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more
Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success
R/N = Road/neutral
L100L = Lower than 100 losses
Lock Teams Not Listed (23): Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Xavier, Maryland, Richmond
Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:
Minnesota's rise is complete as the BubbleBoard now says their in. Quite a turnaround considering they were about 40th on the larger list just a week or two back. As usual, the computers still favor UAB, VCU, and Rhode Island so I've shown the expanded bubble. In reality, the final 2 spots in the field may come down to 2 of Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St, and Virginia Tech. The BubbleBoard favors Minnesota & VT in that scenario. Cal & Missouri are barely hanging in, and may very well be over-seeded in the tournament.. the BubbleBoard says these 2 are overrated and potential 1st round tournament victims. Utah St & UTEP, who both lost yesterday, are still tournament worthy. UTEP's seeding definitely took a blow though, while the Utah St loss shouldn't effect things too much because NMSU is a quality opponent.
What do you think about the Bubble today?
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