In one of the slowest weeks of the season, as far as
quality games go, Louisville at
Kentucky is the clear-cut choice as the
Game of the Week. No matter how good each team is, or how average each
team is, this game is always worth watching. Next to Duke-North
Carolina, this might be the best rivalry in college basketball. This
year’s game should be a solid contest, and a very good barometer for
both teams. Louisville is a top five in the polls, but no one really
knows anything about them. They are 6-0, with each of the wins coming at
home. None of the victories are truly noteworthy, considering the best
win is over 4-2 Tennessee-Martin and 3-2 Akron. They are averaging close
to 80 points per game, while allowing just over 60 a game. Kentucky has
had a much more difficult schedule than Louisville, and is currently
6-3. Their best win of the season is over West Virginia on a neutral
court, while their losses have come to quality clubs—Iowa on a neutral
court; North Carolina at home; and Indiana in Indianapolis. They are
only outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 points per game,
putting up 71 and giving up 61.
Louisville came into the season with mostly
undeserved accolades. They were lauded as a top ten team by many
publications, even though they lost three starters and their sixth man.
They have moved into the top five of the polls on the shoulders of
senior guard Taquan Dean (20.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.7 spg). His
three-point shooting has gone down this season, but he has found more
ways to score, and has been the go-to-guy. He had 30 of the Cardinals’
53 points against Richmond. Also in the backcourt is Brandon Jenkins
(11.5 ppg, 3.7 apg). He is an excellent defender who has improved his
scoring this season. His ability to play the point has allowed Dean to
play off the ball and focus on scoring. Terrence Williams (9.2 ppg, 4.8
rpg, 1.7 spg) rounds out the perimeter starters. He is extremely
athletic and gives the Cardinals someone who can get out in transition
and score. The perimeter has plenty of depth, including Andre McGee,
Perrin Johnson, and Bryan Harvey. All three average at least 12 minutes
per game. Up front, the Cardinals have one of the best post duos in the
country, when they are healthy. Juan Palacios (11.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.0
apg) is a versatile player that can score inside and out. He can also
run the floor and handle the ball well for a big man. He has excellent
potential, as does his partner on the low block, David Padgett (10.2 ppg,
6.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.8 bpg). The transfer from Kansas was expected to
miss several games due to injury, but only ended up sitting out one. He
is somewhat inconsistent, but gives the Cardinals a very good scorer up
front. Padgett shoots an astonishing 72.4% from the field. Brian Johnson
comes off the bench to give Palacios and Padgett a breather.
Kentucky also came into the season with high
expectations. They have come nowhere to living up to those projections,
although some of that can be attributed to the lack of an inside player.
Randolph Morris was expected to play most of the season at the outset,
but then the NCAA suspended him for the season. Just this week, however,
his punishment was reduced to only 14 games, of which he has already
served 9. That won’t help them against Louisville, though. No matter
what, Kentucky is a guard-driven team. Rajon Rondo (15.5 ppg, 9.9 rpg,
5.1 apg, 2.1 spg) is one of the best point guards in the country. He is
an excellent defender and can penetrate past most defenders. He is the
leading rebounder for the Wildcats, which is good for him but does not
say much about the post players of Kentucky. Shooting guard Patrick
Sparks (10.1 ppg) is shooting 42 percent from long range, but has been
very inconsistent in the past few games. He is 7 for 25 in his past five
contests. A trio of guards share the third starting backcourt role and
are the main players off the bench for the Wildcats. Ramel Bradley (8.4
ppg) is very quick and is a good scorer, but tends to shoot too much;
Joe Crawford (6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) has the most potential of the three, and
is a solid scorer and defender; and Ravi Moss (6.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 41%
from three) is the best shooter of the group and is a decent rebounder
for his size. Brandon Stockton also sees minutes in the backcourt. Three
forwards see most of the time down low. Rekalin Sims (8.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
started strong but has struggled lately. He is an inside-outside threat
that can rebound. Bobby Perry (7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg) is a versatile
frontcourt player that can rebound and get a few baskets here and there.
Sheray Thomas (4.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg) is a good rebounder that does not score
much. Three seven-footers—Shagari Alleyne, Lukasz Obrzut, and Jared
Carter—produce a combined 7.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per
game, and are not counted on for much of anything down low.
One of the best rivalries in the country will have
another chapter added to it this weekend, but it will not be a very
exciting chapter. Louisville is the better team of the two, both on the
perimeter and in the post. If Kentucky had Randolph Morris, it would be
a different story, but they don’t get him until January 10th.
That won’t help them against the superior Cardinals, even if the game is
being played at Rupp Arena. Taquan Dean will likely go against Rajon
Rondo in what could be an outstanding match-up of guards. Louisville has
the edge at every position, though. Brandon Jenkins has shown the
ability to be a very good complement to Dean, while David Padgett and
Juan Palacios should have a huge advantage down low. If one of
Kentucky’s inside players—i.e. Rekalin Sims, Shagari Alleyne, etc.—have
a big game in the paint, the Wildacts have a chance. I don’t see that
happening. However, in rivalry games, strange things happen. And I have
seen stranger things than the Kentucky Wildcats beating Louisville
Cardinals—at home, nonetheless. I won’t see it Saturday, though.
Prediction: Louisville 79, Kentucky 68
For the third straight week, I was wrong in my Game
of the Week prediction. However, nearly every expert chose the wrong
team. Not that it makes it any better that I chose a team that ended up
losing by 31. Texas did not look like a very good team, never mind a top
five squad. Duke ran through them with relative ease, led by JJ Redick’s
41-point performance. The Longhorns can bounce back, though, as the
season isn’t over (this isn’t college football, folks). I can bounce
back, too. Hopefully, I will get my first win of the season this week.
