With conference play starting up in full swing this
week, the amount of top-notch games skyrocketed as opposed to the past
couple of weeks. The lone game matching the top two teams from a power
conference, however, resides in the Big Ten. Michigan State and
Illinois face off in the first of two potentially conference-champion
deciding games. Both teams are ranked in the Top 10 in the polls (with
Illinois at #6 and Michigan State at #7), and Top 20 in the RPI (with
Illinois at #8 and Michigan State at #18). Illinois has not missed a
beat after the loss of stars Luther Head and Deron Williams, and have
started the season 14-0. They own solid, neutral-court wins over
Wichita State and Rutgers; a road win at North Carolina; and two home
victories against Xavier and Georgetown. They are putting up 75.5
points per game, and allowing only 55.6 per game. According to Ken
Pomeroy, they have 20th most-efficient offense and the 9th
most-efficient defense. Michigan State, on the other hand, started off
the season slowly, with a blowout loss on the road to Hawaii, and then
lost their next D-1 game to Gonzaga in a classic, triple-overtime
affair. Since then, though they have ran off 11 consecutive wins,
including victories over Arizona and Boston College on neutral courts,
and at home against Wichita State. The 12-2 Spartans are averaging
almost 83 points per game, and are giving up just over 72. They have
the 3rd most efficient offense, but only the 209th
most efficient defense. Both of these teams are potential Final Four
contenders, and should give us a great game.
Illinois is led by the inside-outside duo of
All-American Dee Brown (14.2 ppg 3.1 rpg 5.6 apg, 1.6 spg) and the
vastly underappreciated James Augustine (14.4 ppg 9.4 rpg, 1.5 spg,
64% FG). Brown might be the most exciting player in college basketball
to watch, and is one of the best winners we have seen in awhile. He is
extremely quick with the ball, and is one of the fastest players from
end to end in the country. Brown is also a very good defender.
Augustine is one of the best big men in the Big Ten, but does not get
nearly enough credit. The lefty is tough to stop on the low block, and
is a relentless rebounder. Wings Rich McBride (9.5 ppg, 42% 3pt) and
freshman Jamar Smith (10.2 ppg, 57% 3pt) are solid scorers that can
shoot the ball. Smith might be the best freshman shooter in the
country, while McBride takes some of the pressure off of Brown in the
backcourt. Forward Brian Randle (8.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is the best
defender on the team, and can guard a variety of positions. Athletic
Warren Carter (5.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg) makes the most of his 13 minutes per
game, and provides the Illini with a versatile scorer. Inside, Shaun
Pruitt (5.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is a solid rebounder and defender who can
also get a couple of baskets per game. Marcus Arnold (4.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
provides depth on the interior.
Michigan State has possibly the best trio in the
country in wings Maurice Ager (22.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.4 apg) and Shannon
Brown (17.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.8 spg, 43% 3pt), and big man Paul
Davis (19.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 61% FG). Ager is having an All-America-type
season, and is one of the best offensive talents in the nation. He can
shoot the ball from deep, but is at his best out in the open court,
getting to the basket and finishing. He has scored at least 20 points
in all but three of the game this season, and has not scored below 15
in a game yet. Brown, as with Ager, is an unbelievable athlete and can
get to the basket against most defenders. He is also a very good
long-range shooter, and has scored at least 20 points in 4 of his last
5 games. Davis is also having an All-America-type year on the
interior. He is an all-around player inside, and can rebound and score
with the best of them. He has a nice jump-shot with good range, and
has hit all four of his three-point attempts this season. Point guard
Drew Neitzel (8.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, 48% 3pt) is often overlooked, but is a
good shooter who gets the ball where it needs to be. In addition, he
does not turn the ball over much—a key part in the Spartans’
high-octane offense. Several players split time at the four-spot for
Michigan State. Marquise Gray (3.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg) is athletic and is a
very good rebounder; Goran Suton (4.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg) is a versatile big
man that has decent range; and Delco Rowley provides depth. Travis
Walton (2.9 apg) provides depth on the perimeter.
What better way to start the Big Ten season than
with the top two teams in the league facing off? This should be an
excellent game with several key things to watch that will determine
the winner. First off all, Drew Neitzel is going to need to slow down
Dee Brown and not allow him to constantly beat the Spartans down the
floor. Inside, James Augustine against Paul Davis is going to be a
great matchup. On the wings, Maurice Ager and Shannon Brown are going
to have a huge edge over Jamar Smith and Rich McBride. If they utilize
their athleticism and get easy baskets, it could be a long day for the
Illini. However, they are also going to have to get out and guard
Smith and McBride on the perimeter. Marcus Arnold could draw the
defensive assignment on Ager, which could be big if he can slow Ager
down. With the talent and personnel on both sides very close, the
difference could be the homecourt advantage that Illinois is going to
have. The Assembly Hall and the Orange Krush give the Fighting Illini
an edge over whomever they play. On Thursday night, it will also give
Illinois a win.
Prediction: Illinois 70, Michigan State 68
I finally got a win last week in my Game of the
Week column, when Memphis pulled off a victory at home against Gonzaga.
They used their athleticism and depth to offset another great game by
Adam Morrison. The decision to use Shawne Williams on Morrison down
the stretch turned out to be the difference for the Tigers. Hopefully,
my winning ways will continue this week.
Other Games of Note
Villanova at Louisville (Thursday, 7:00 PM,
ESPN)- Two of the Big East’s best battle it out in the first
conference game of the season for each team. Villanova is one of the
top two teams in the country, and has continued to win without Curtis
Sumpter. The Wildcats have the best backcourt in the country in wings
Randy Foye, a Player of the Year candidate, and Allan Ray, an
excellent scorer; and point guards Mike Nardi, a very good shooter,
and Kyle Lowry, a hard-nosed scorer and defender. On the other side,
Louisville has a nice inside-outside trio in guard Taquan Dean, one of
the best all-around players in the country, and post men Juan Palacios
and David Padgett, both versatile big men that have good range and can
also score down low. Brandon Jenkins is a very good option on the
perimeter. Prediction: Villanova 75, Louisville 72
UCLA at Arizona (Thursday, 10:30 PM, FSN)-
Two of the Pac-10’s top three go at it in what should be a great
matchup. Arizona pulled off a sweep of the Washington schools last
week on the road, giving them a nice start in conference play. Hassan
Adams is one of the best players in the country, while point guard
Mustafa Shakur, and wings Marcus Williams and Chris Rodgers are all
athletic scorers on the perimeter. UCLA has overcome several injuries
to keep up their winning ways this season. Jordan Farmar and Aaron
Afflalo are one of the best backcourt duos in the country, and wing
Josh Shipp has returned from injury to give the Bruins another
perimeter stud. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is the main inside player.
Prediction: Arizona 84, UCLA 79
Iowa at Wisconsin (Thursday, 8:00 PM, ESPN
FullCourt)- In the Big Ten this season, up to eight teams are
going to fight for NCAA bids. That means that every night,
high-quality games are going to be played in the conference. Wisconsin
has found a way to continue winning, even without overly impressive
talent. Alando Tucker is one of the most versatile scorers in the
country, while Kammron Taylor is a solid offensive point guard. Brian
Butch gives the Badgers an inside presence. Iowa has struggled at
times this season, but are getting healthy at the right time. They
have one of the best trios in the conference in Jeff Horner, an
all-around point guard, Adam Haluska, an excellent wing scorer, and
Greg Brunner, a double-double machine on the inside. Prediction:
Wisconsin 66, Iowa 61
North Carolina State at North Carolina
(Saturday, 3:00 PM, ESPN2)- One of the best ACC matchups of the
early conference season. Both of these teams should contend for NCAA
bids. NC State has a very balanced attack that they have used to get
off to an excellent start. Ilian Evtimov is an inside-outside threat;
Cedric Simmons is a solid low-post option; while Cameron Bennerman and
Gavin Grant can take their man off the dribble. North Carolina is a
very young team, but will improve as the season goes on. The
frontcourt trio of Tyler Hansbrough, one of the best freshmen in the
country; David Noel, an athletic scorer and rebounder; and Reyshawn
Terry, a versatile scorer, is one of the best in the country.
Prediction: North Carolina State 70, North Carolina 66
LSU at Connecticut (Saturday, 4:00 PM, CBS)-
Two of the most talented teams in the country battle it out in a
non-conference battle. Connecticut might be the best team in the
country, and just got super-passer Marcus Williams back from
suspension. Rudy Gay is one of the best players in the nation; Rashad
Anderson is an outstanding scorer off the bench; and Josh Boone is a
low-post force. LSU has a phenomenal freshman forward duo in Tasmin
Mitchell and Tyrus Thomas. The inside-outside combo of guard Darrell
Mitchell and big man Glen Davis is the best in the SEC. Prediction:
Connecticut 79, LSU 71
Ohio State at Indiana (Saturday, 4:00 PM, CBS)-
Another top-notch Big Ten matchup. Ohio State has surprised some
with their undefeated start. Je’Kel Foster is one of the best
three-point shooters in the country, while Terence Dials is a solid
inside player. Ron Lewis and J.J. Sullinger lead a host of talented
wings. Indiana may be the best hope the Big Ten has for the Final
Four. The inside duo of D.J. White and Marco Killingsworth is one of
the better tandems in the nation, while Robert Vaden and Marshall
Strickland are very good perimeter scorers. Prediction: Indiana 78,
Ohio State 73
Duke at Wake Forest (Sunday, 8:00 PM, FSN)-
The first road test for the Blue Devils in the ACC. Duke has the best
inside-outside combo in the nation in Player of the Year candidate J.J.
Redick and big man Shelden Williams, possibly the best post player in
the country. Freshman Greg Paulus is developing into a very good
distributor at the point, while fellow frosh Josh McRoberts is also
coming into his own. Wake Forest has its own inside-outside duo in
guard Justin Gray, an excellent scorer, and Eric Williams, an
efficient but not dominant low-post option. Trent Strickland is an
athletic scorer and rebounder on the wing. Prediction: Duke 83,
Wake Forest 76
Other Predictions on Key Games
Manhattan at Iona (Friday, 7:00, ESPNU)-
Prediction: Iona 75, Manhattan 70
Kentucky at Kansas (Saturday, NOON, ESPN)-
Prediction: Kentucky 79, Kansas 74
Illinois at Iowa (Saturday, 2:00 PM, ESPN)-
Prediction: Iowa 71, Illinois 69
Northern Iowa at Missouri State (Saturday, 8:00
PM)- Prediction: Northern Iowa 73, Missouri State 68
West Virginia at Villanova (Sunday, NOON)-
Prediction: Villanova 82, West Virginia 75
Michigan State at Wisconsin (Sunday, 1:30 PM,
CBS)- Prediction: Wisconsin 74, Michigan State 71
