Saturday, January 14th, 1:00 PM, CBS
Two of the Top 5 Preseason teams battle it out in
Austin in this week’s Game of the Week. There are several key conference
matchups, but it doesn’t get much better than two Top 10 teams in a
non-conference game in January. Both groups are legit national title
contenders, yet their respective seasons have been nearly opposites of
each other. Villanova started off the season 10-0, looking very
impressive every night out. However, since then, they have lost to West
Virginia and struggled in an overtime win against Rutgers. Texas, on the
other hand, never really looked dominant in their 8-0 start, and then
got blown out by Duke and Tennessee. Since then, they have gone on the
road and beaten Memphis and Iowa State handily en route to a 5-game
winning streak. As a result, the Longhorns have all of the momentum
heading into this game. Villanova, ranked 5th in the RPI, are
averaging 82 points per game, and are allowing just under 63. According
to Ken Pomeroy, they have the 2nd-most efficient offense and
the 17th-most efficient defense. Texas, the 18th-ranked
RPI team, are averaging over 82 points per game, and are giving up just
over 60. They have the 6th-most efficient offense, and the 3rd-most
efficient defense. The collection of talent on each team will be
exciting to watch, and will provide viewers with an excellent game.
Villanova has used a
four-guard starting lineup the entire season after the potential
season-ending injury to All-Conference forward Curtis Sumpter. Even
though they are small, the Wildcats have the best backcourt in nation.
Randy Foye (21.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.3 spg) and Allan Ray (19.2 ppg,
3.7 rpg, 1.3 spg) comprise one of the best wing scoring tandems in the
country. Foye is the de facto power forward on this team, at 6-4. He is
being mentioned in the Player of the Race, as he might be the best
all-around player in the country. Ray is a scorer, plain and simple.
When his jump-shot is on, he is one of the best offensive players in the
nation. Mike Nardi (12.6 ppg, 49% 3pt) and Kyle Lowry (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg,
4.3 apg, 2.0 spg) are a two-headed monster at the point. Nardi has been
able to play more off the ball this season with Lowry taking the
ball-handling duties. Lowry is an excellent all-around player who is
very quick. Nardi is a good long-range shooter. Up front, Will Sheridan
(4.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Jason Fraser (5.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.7 bpg) are the
main post players. Frasor has shown flashes of what he can be if he was
completely healthy, but those flashes don’t show up often enough.
Sheridan is a solid rebounder and can also get a few baskets in the
paint. If they can combine for about 19 points and 15 rebounds per game,
the Wildcats are going to be tough to beat down the road. Dante
Cunnigham (3.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Shane Clark (3.3 ppg) have provided
good depth inside for the Wildcats. Cunnigham has a non-stop motor and
uses his athleticism to get rebounds and points, while Clark had 9
points against West Virginia and is a good inside-outside scorer.
Texas might be the second most talented team in the
country (besides Connecticut). They have All-Conference players at four
positions, and several other very solid role players. The Longhorns
start with arguably the best frontcourt in the nation. LaMarcus Aldridge
(17.1 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.7 spg, 2.1 bpg) has been one of the best centers
in the country so far this season. He has shown the ability to take over
a game down low. If he doesn’t get into foul trouble, he is very
difficult to stop. His partner in the post, Brad Buckman (11.2 ppg, 7.5
rpg, 2.1 bpg), is an underrated forward. He has a nice touch in the
mid-range game and is a bruiser on the block. Rounding out the
frontcourt is P.J. Tucker (18.4, 9.1 rpg, 2.1 spg). He is difficult
match-up. At 6-5, he is too quick for bigger forwards, but is much too
strong for lanky wings. Tucker might be the toughest offensive player in
the country to stop when he is getting touches down low. In the
backcourt, Daniel Gibson (13.5 ppg, 3.1 apg, 1.5 spg) is one of the top
guards in the nation. He is a very good shooter and is a solid
distributor. He can get into the lane against most defenders. Gibson
started out at the point earlier in the season, but switched to the wing
after a couple of turnover-filled games. At the lead-guard spot, several
players split time. The starter is Kenton Paulino (9.1 ppg, 3.1 apg, 42%
3pt). He started out on the wing, but switched with Gibson midway
through the non-conference season. He controls the pace well, and can
hit the three consistently. Freshman A.J. Abrams (6.1 ppg, 2.9 apg) is a
solid combo guard that sees time in the backcourt. Depth up front comes
from Connor Atchley (3.5 ppg), who can score from inside and outside.
The talent in this game is going to be unbelievable.
On the perimeter, Daniel Gibson of Texas, and Allan Ray and Randy Foye
of Villanova are in the Top 5 at their respective positions. Up front,
Texas’ P.J. Tucker is a matchup nightmare, while the Longhorns’ LaMarcus
Aldridge is a dominant big man. The key matchup will be Ray vs. Tucker
and Foye vs. Brad Buckman. Ray is nowhere near strong enough to stop
Tucker on the block. Foye might have a better chance at stopping Tucker
when he posts up. If the Wildcats decide to put Foye on Tucker, it will
help them out. On the other side, Buckman is going to have to defend
Foye. Foye is too quick for Buckman, so he is going to need help. In the
end, however, Texas has too much inside-outside balance for the Wildcats
to handle. Unless Jason Fraser and Will Sheridan figure out a way to
stop Aldridge on one end, and get some baskets on the other, Texas will
be too much on the interior. On the perimeter, the Longhorns’ Gibson is
good enough of a perimeter scorer to match Ray, while Foye is going to
get his no matter what for Villanova. The variety of ways in which Texas
can score is going to be the difference. Foye, Kyle Lowry, and Ray are
going to give them a heckuva game, though.
Prediction: Texas 76, Villanova 71
For the second week in a row, I was correct in my
Game of the Week prediction, improving my record to 2-4 on the season.
Illinois was much too good defensively for Michigan State to handle in a
tough atmosphere. In addition, Dee Brown demonstrated that he is one of
the best players in the country with a phenomenal performance from
behind the arc. Assembly Hall was rocking as the Illini rolled to
victory. Hopefully, my winning streak continues this week.
