The more things change, the more they stay the same.  Or at least the story seems to go in a new look Western Athletic Conference which is saying goodbye to UTEP, Rice, Tulsa and SMU who have bolted for Conference-USA.  The conference welcomes newcomers Utah State, New Mexico State and Idaho.  While New Mexico State and Idaho look to struggle in their new conference, Utah State hopes to make the jump from the Big West to the WAC a successful one and become a major player in the race for the Conference title.  The WAC has placed two teams in the NCAA tournament the past two years, but unless there is a team that can step up and make some noise, it appears that the league may only send one team.  However, if the teams that are chasing defending conference champion Nevada; namely Utah State, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech and Fresno State, are going to be dancing in March, then they will have to make some noise early with some big wins early in the preseason.

The Bottom Feeders

Idaho

Coach: Leonard Perry 44-72 (4 years)

2004-2005: 8-22

Idaho is going to be depending on a litany of new faces this year because they return just 4 lettermen.  Coach Perry, along with his only two returning starters pg Tanoris Shepard (12.1 ppg, 3.2 apg) and Jerrod Haynes (4.9 ppg, 2.7 apg) will have their hands full leading this team to a fast start because Idaho opens up with three tough road games at Gonzaga, Washington and Washington State.  Once that initial road trip is survived, Idaho gets 6 straight home games to hone their game before opening up conference play January 5^th against New Mexico St.  If Idaho can win four of their first 11 games they should feel good about themselves.  Don’t expect any upsets in the first week though, this team will have to pay its dues and take its beatings against Gonzaga and the Pac-10 schools before it finds any success.

San Jose Sate

Coach: George Nessman (First Year)

2004-2005: 6-23

Coach George Nessman takes over a program that hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament in over ten years and that has won just 19 games in the past three years.  He won’t resurrect the program this year, but he is laying the foundation for success in the future by finally getting some prep recruits onto the team instead of relying on JC transfers.  San Jose State’s non conference schedule is a good mix of winnable games (Santa Clara, at Cal Poly, at UC Irvine) and games where playing higher quality opponents should help this young team’s progression.  It wouldn’t be surprising for San Jose State to get off to a 6-6 start before heading into WAC play against Utah State on January 5^th and they may be able to do even better.

New Mexico State

Coach: Reggie Theus (First Year)

2004-2005: 6-24

New Mexico State returns only two starters, but after the facelift that the program received from new coach Reggie Theus this past off season, it wouldn’t be a shock if this team shows a lot more life than it did last year.  This young team opens up its season at #13 UCLA on national television where a good performance could do wonders as far as recruiting and building the program go.  The Aggies play three other teams that were in the NCAA tournament (UTEP twice, New Mexico twice, and Texas Tech at home) last year, but can be expected to win its other four non conference games.  If this rookie coach can get this team to gel early, perhaps the Aggies can ambush UTEP or New Mexico at home and head in to WAC play at an even .500 or even better.

Optimists

Boise State

Coach: Greg Graham 70-49 (4 years)

2004-2005: 16-18

After a disappointing regular season, Greg Graham’s Broncos put together a run in the conference tournament that almost carried them to the NCAA tournament.  Boise State won 3 games in 4 days, including an upset of regular season WAC champ Nevada at home,  before falling short to UTEP in the tournament championship.  Guard Coby Karl (12.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.8 apg) returns to try and lead Boise State back to the forefront of the conference race.  Besides opening up with NCAA tournament team Montana, Boise should be tested only twice in non-conference play by BYU and Arizona State.  An 8-2 record is very possible heading into WAC play against La Tech on January 5^th.

Fresno State

Coach: Steve Cleveland 138-108 (8 years)

2004-2005: 16-14

Fresno State’s tumultuous off season may have some light at the end of the tunnel.  New head coach Steve Cleveland inherits only 5 lettermen, but three of them comprised the starting backcourt for the Bulldogs, who were inconsistent for most of the year but did defeat the WAC’s top teams Nevada and UTEP last year.  And though the task will be difficult, juniors Ja’Vance Coleman, Donavin Morris, and sophomore Kevin Bell give the Bulldogs a chance to beat any team on any given night.  The schedule bodes well for the Bulldogs and they should get through their non-conference schedule in good shape with an 8-3 or even a 9-2 record.  The tests against Oregon State, at Pacific, and at #23 Iowa State need to be used to improve the frontcourt play if Fresno wants to keep up with Nevada and La Techs big front lines.

The Contenders

Louisiana Tech

Coach: Keith Richard 120-84 (7 years)

2004-2005: 14-15

Keith Richard is running out of time with Paul Milsap, so it is imperative that La Tech make a run at the conference title because Milsap (20.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg) might leave for the NBA at the conclusion of his junior year.  Milsap gives La Tech something that other teams in the WAC don’t have, an answer for Nevada’s Nick Fazekas in the low post.  If Richard can get steady contribution from his role players, La Tech can be a real player in the WAC race.  The non-conference schedule will put the Bulldogs on the road a lot to open the season which should help when conference play begins.  The WAC is a tough conference for road teams and this should prepare the Bulldogs for what lies ahead.  La Tech faces two top 25 teams and could really make some noise by going into either # 14 Alabama or #12 Memphis and coming out with a win.  I’d expect the Bulldogs to be 9-4 going into Boise State on January 5^th.

Hawaii

Coach: Riley Wallace 324-268

2004-2005: 16-13

Hawaii burst out of the gate to an 8-0 record last season, but limped its way through the rest of the season going 8-13.  2005 looks to be a better year as Hawaii intends to challenge for the WAC title and possibly a birth in the NCAA tournament.  Other than Nevada, Hawaii has probably the best chance to get a bid into the dance in March.  The team that sprinted to a fast start last year returns with lots of new talent and the experience to not let the momentum fizzle out again.  Hawaii gets to throw the first real punches on November 19^th when the Warriors host #5 Michigan State.  Other than that game, Hawaii plays a manageable non-conference schedule and could easily be 7-2 going into the showdown with Nevada on January 5^th on the island.  And if Hawaii can work some magic against Michigan State, watch out.

Utah State

Coach: Stew Morrill 385-192 (19 years)

2004-2005: 24-8

Utah State looks to make a big splash in its first year in the WAC by immediately challenging Nevada for league supremacy.  The Aggies have lots of returning talent to compliment the new players coming in and the program has a foundation in winning and success.  However, the Big West is not the WAC and the real tests will come later this year when we’ll see if Utah State can travel well and be successful against tougher opponent’s week in and week out.   With that in mind, the non-conference schedule is easy and with the exception of a game at Utah, the Aggies should come out of the gate blazing.  I’d expect them to be possibly 6-0 before traveling to Hawaii on December 17^th.

The Alpha Dog

Nevada

Coach: Mark Fox 25-7 (1 year)

2004-2005: 25-7

This preseason has been kinder to the Nevada Wolf Pack than ever before in school history.  The team is ranked in both polls and is even as high as 7 in some websites rankings (14 at CHN).  Star forward Nick Fazekas is on every major watch list, 2^nd year coach Mark Fox is becoming one of the premier young coaches in college basketball and things are looking up in Reno.  The team is young, deep and experienced which spells bad news for WAC teams.  Nevada appears to be a level above everyone else in the WAC and need to find ways to stay motivated if they want to keep the excitement the program has built going.  And though it appears Nevada’s real legacy will be made in how they do in March, we’ll know just how talented and dangerous this team is very early.  The Wolf Pack has a brutal schedule from 11/23 to 12/10 going on the road for five of six games, four of which against NCAA tournament teams last season.  They travel to Vermont, then to archrival UNLV, to Kansas where they were drubbed last year, to Pacific, then back home to face UC Davis before finishing off at #18 UCLA in a game that could really put Nevada’s name on the map.  If Nevada wants to continue to grow as a power in basketball they will have to stay focused.  The Wolf Pack opens up conference play at Hawaii on January 6^th and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them at 10-2 or better when that happens.