With only a few games left on each team’s
schedule, conference races are starting to clear up and regular
season titles are being clinched left and right. However, most of
the major conferences are still up for grabs. The Big Ten has six
teams within 1.5 games of each other; the Pac-10 has five teams
within 1.5 games; the Big 12 title will be decided this weekend when
Texas faces Kansas; UConn and Villanova are going to decide who wins
the Big East; and the SEC has three teams with a chance at the
championship. As far as games this week go, the SEC will have the
most important game in terms of the effect on the conference race
when Tennessee heads to Florida.
Tennessee has been one of the biggest surprises
this season as a result of new coach Bruce Pearl, the favorite for
Coach of the Year. His energy and pressure defense have led this
Volunteers team to a 19-2 record, 10-4 in the SEC. In addition, they
are one of the hottest teams in the nation. Prior to losing this
weekend to Alabama, they had won 8 in a row and 13 of 15. Tennessee
has beaten Florida once this season, and also defeated Texas on the
road earlier in the season. Their worst loss was to Oklahoma State
in Oklahoma City back in December. The Volunteers average over 83
points per game, and allow just below 74 per game. In other words,
they both score and give up the most points in the league.
Tennessee, ranked a surprising 4th in the RPI, are the 9th-most
efficient offensive team in the country but only the 82nd-most
efficient defensive club, according to Ken Pomeroy.
Like the Volunteers, Florida has been a huge
surprise this season. They lost their three leading scorers from
last season, but that has turned out to be addition by subtraction.
Coach of the Year candidate Billy Donovan has meshed a talented
group into a team that is 22-4 overall, and 8-4 in the SEC. They
were also the last undefeated team in the country. However, the
Gators have struggled somewhat lately. They have lost 2 of 4, and
are only 5-4 in their last 9 games. Their best wins to date are
Syracuse and LSU, while getting swept by South Carolina and losing
to Arkansas weren’t the most impressive of losses. Florida averages
81 points per game, and allows just over 64 points per game, best in
the conference. The Gators, 22nd in the RPI, have the 20th-most
efficient offense and the 19th-most efficient defense.
Tennessee is a perimeter-heavy team that plays
four guards at times. When they get production from the paint, it
makes them very difficult to beat. They press the ball from the
opening tip and don’t let up. The Vols force plenty of turnovers and
don’t turn the ball over much themselves. They are tough to prepare
for on short notice, which bodes well for the NCAA Tournament. The
Volunteers have two of the best guards in the country in C.J. Watson
(15.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.2 apg, 2.2 spg, 41% 3pt) and Chris Lofton
(17.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.1 spg, 48% 3pt). Watson is a very
good all-around point guard, and is a candidate for All-SEC honors.
He is an above-average three-point shooter, doesn’t turn the ball
over, and is a solid defender. In addition, he is a decent rebounder
for his size and can pour in points if necessary. Watson has only
failed to score in double-digits once this season. Lofton might be
the best three-point shooter in the country—yes, including J.J.
Redick. In his last four games, he shot 29 for 41 from beyond the
arc, translating to an astonishing 71%. He is an excellent scorer
and a solid defender who gets into passing lanes for steals. Lofton
is also an outstanding free-throw shooter. Three more perimeter
players average over 20 minutes per game. Dane Bradshaw (7.0 ppg,
6.1 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.9 spg) is the third starter on the wing. He
produces in all areas of the game. Before Andre Patterson began
starting a few games ago, the 6-4 Bradshaw played the power forward
position. He is second on the team in rebounding (15th in
the SEC) and assists (8th in the SEC). Bradshaw can also
score on occasion and is a very good defender. JaJuan Smith (9.7 ppg,
2.7 rpg, 1.5 spg) and Stanly Asumnu (8.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg) provide
excellent production off the bench. Smith is instant offense and can
also get into the passing lanes for steals. However, he tends to
shoot too much and is not overly efficient. Asumnu is a versatile
wing player who can score quite efficiently and can also rebound and
distribute well. He, like Bradshaw, can swing to the frontcourt to
relieve the post players for a few minutes.
Inside, two players see the majority of the
minutes. Major Wingate (10.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg) is the main option down
low. He leads the team in FG percentage and can put the ball in the
basket, but he is a liability on the rebounding end. He is not even
the Top 30 in the SEC, and is the worst rebounding center in the
conference. Moreover, he is not much of a defensive presence in the
post. With that said, he is a consistent point producer who has only
fouled out of one game all season. Andre Patterson (10.2 ppg, 6.6
rpg, 1.2 spg) is an unsung forward who is always around the ball and
always seems to be involved, one way or another. He can score fairly
well and leads the team in rebounding. Additionally, he is a solid
defender who can also pass the ball. He began starting 7 games in a
row, and that is when Tennessee really took off.
Florida is one of the most balanced teams in the
country. All five starters average in double-figures and no one puts
up more than 14.2 points per game. They lead the conference in all
three shooting categories (FG, FT, 3PT) and also are tops in the SEC
in assists. The Gators don’t have a go-to-guy, but have several
players capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night.
They can play at any pace and don’t have many weaknesses. There is a
reason they were the last undefeated team in the country. It starts
with their point guard, Taurean Green (14.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.2 apg,
1.4 spg, 40% 3pt). One of the most improved players in the country,
Green leads the SEC in assists and is one of the best playmakers in
the nation. He is a good long-range shooter and is also a solid
defender. However, he is prone to turnovers and takes bad shots
often. His backcourt partner, Lee Humphrey (10.2 ppg, 2.2 apg, 48%
3pt), is one of the best three-point shooters around. He is not much
of a creator, but his shooting extends the defense and allows the
rest of the Gators to drive the lane and score inside. You won’t see
him venture inside the arc too often, but it is not needed most of
the time. Also starting on the wing is Corey Brewer (12.4 ppg, 5.0
rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.7 spg), one of the best all-around players in the
conference. He leads the team in steals, is second in assists, and
is third in both rebounding and scoring. Brewer has excellent
ability to get into passing lanes and create havoc on the defensive
end. He is a very good offensive rebounder who scores while slashing
to the basket. He is also very good in the open court. Seeing
minutes off the bench on the perimeter are freshmen Walter Hodge
(5.0 ppg, 1.2 spg) and David Huertas (3.2 ppg). Hodge produces in
several aspects and allows Green to take some time off. He is a
decent scorer and distributor. In addition, he can shoot the three
and create turnovers with his defense. Hodge is capable of filling
it up on the offensive end. Huertas is a solid wing who gets just
over 10 minutes per game backing up Brewer.
Up front, Florida has one of the most athletic
post tandems you will find. Joakim Noah (13.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.1 spg,
1.9 bpg, 67% fg) has developed into one of the SEC’s best big men as
the season has progressed. His excellent leaping ability allows him
to grab offensive rebounds and to block shots. He has a good touch
and is tough to stop in the low block. His efficiency from the field
is outstanding. Al Horford (11.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.3 spg, 2.0 bpg, 65%
fg) has been rising up NBA draft boards recently. He is athletic and
strong and is a hard-nosed player in the paint. Horford is one of
the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the conference. He has
seven double-doubles this season and is capable of having a big game
every night out. Like Noah, he is efficient when shooting the ball.
Backing them up is Chris Richard (6.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 73% fg), who
leads the conference in field-goal percentage. He is a solid scorer
and rebounder who is a very good defender. His production has
slipped in conference play, but he is still an above-average player
off the bench inside. Adrian Moss (3.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg) also sees
minutes down low. He is very athletic and has shown potential, but
that potential has not translated into much production in his four
years at Florida.
Like the first meeting between these two teams
earlier this season, this game should be an exciting and
high-scoring affair. Both teams can light up the scoreboard but have
two completely different styles. Tennessee is a fast-paced, pressing
group that gets their points in transition. On the other hand,
Florida is a balanced team that can score in multiple settings. They
are their best when all of their players are producing on the
offensive end. This game is going to come down to Taurean Green
handling the Volunteers’ pressure. He has six turnovers in the first
meeting, and that can’t happen again if the Gators are to win.
Moreover, Florida has to contain Chris Lofton. He is the hottest he
has ever been currently, and if he has a big game, the Gators are
going to be in trouble. On the other side, Tennessee needs to get
more production from players other than Lofton and C.J. Watson.
Watson only had six points in the first game; he obviously needs to
score more. Additionally, Major Wingate needs to hold his own down
low against Al Horford and Joakim Noah. Andre Patterson can’t do all
the rebounding. Both Horford and Noah are athletic and aggressive.
If they start grabbing every loose ball in sight, the Gators will
have a major (no pun intended) advantage. When it comes down to it,
I think that, even though Watson will have a better game, Green will
handle the press much better and that Noah and Horford will dominate
down low. The difference is going to be Corey Brewer on the wing for
Florida. He had 20 points and 8 rebounds in the first meeting, and I
expect more of the same from him. The Gators will stay in the SEC
title race with a win on Wednesday.
Prediction: Florida 78, Tennessee 73
Before my one week hiatus, I pulled off yet
another Game of the Week victory as Pittsburgh took down West
Virginia by the same 4-point margin that I predicted. West Virginia
was somewhat cold from the outside and Aaron Gray dominated down
low. It also didn’t hurt that Kevin Pittsnogle went scoreless and
fouled out. That ran my record to 7-3, with seven straight
victories. Hopefully, I will get my eighth consecutive win this
week.
