foxyjj@sympatico.ca
March 13th 2006
NCAA
Tournament: "Power" Conferences for a Reason
I hate to burst a bubble
team’s bubble or make the clock strike midnight for Cinderella, but the NCAA
Final Four is a fairly predictable affair. If you want to make the Final
Four, you better play for a team in one of the “power conferences”.
The six power conferences
(ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 & SEC) rule the Final Four every
season. Since the last of the power conferences came into existence in 1997
(Big 12), every National Champion has come from one of the six. On top of
this, a staggering 92 % (33 out of 36) of Final Four squads were power
conference ones.
The three non-power
conference teams that did crash the party were from major conferences in
their own right – the WAC and Conference USA. Still, considering the
numbers stated above, this is quite a feat. So who were these party
poopers?
1998 – Utah Runnin’ Utes
– WAC – 30-4 - #3 seed – NCAA Runner-Up
Led by the inside attack
of Michael Doleac and Andre Miller’s floor general skills, the Runnin’ Utes
made a run for the national title. The SEC’s Kentucky Wildcats, who
scratched out a 78-69 victory, stopped their march to the title in the
championship game. Still, on their run through the tourney they knocked off
power conference teams Arkansas, West Virginia & two #1 seeds – Arizona &
North Carolina. Doleac and Miller were both named to the 1998
All-Tournament Team.
2003- Marquette Golden
Eagles – C-USA – 27-6 - #3 seed – Final Four
Before Marquette joined
one of the power conferences, the Big East, Dwyane Wade led them to the 2003
Final Four. The Golden Eagles knocked off power conference teams Missouri,
Pittsburgh & #1 seed Kentucky before falling to the Kansas Jayhawks in the
National semi-final.
2005 – Louisville
Cardinals – C-USA – 33-5 - #4 seed – Final Four
Another Conference USA
team that made it to the Final Four before jumping to the Big East was last
year’s Louisville Cardinals. Rick Pitino’s squad took out big boys Georgia
Tech, Washington (#1 seed) and West Virginia before falling to Illinois in
the National semi-final. This season the Cardinals found out first hand how
powerful a power conference is, struggling in their first year in the Big
East.
So it is possible for a
team not from a “Big 6” conference to make it to the Final Four. That being
said, who has the best chances of beating the odds this season and making it
to Indianapolis?
Gonzaga Bulldogs – WCC
Currently ranked #4 in
the nation, the Bulldogs have already beaten quite a few top ranked teams
this season. However, their last 3 wins over conference foes have been
nailbiters, so they aren’t exactly going into the tourney on a roll. Still,
with Adam Morrison on your side, you have a chance to win against anyone at
anytime.
Memphis Tigers – C-USA
John Calipari’s very
deep, athletic Tiger squad has a very good shot at making it to the Final
Four. Currently fifth in the nation, they beat UCLA and Gonzaga in early
season action.
George Washington – A-10
Currently the #6 team in
the nation, however, that ranking is sure to drop after being upset by
Temple in the A-10 tourney. Would be a huge upset if they made it to the
Final Four due to the fairly weak schedule they played this year.
Nevada Wolf Pack – WAC
Led by Nick Fazekas, the
Wolf Pack are currently on a 12 game winning streak. However they have only
played one ranked team this season, losing to UCLA early in the year. Very
unlikely to make it to Indianapolis.
So how far can a team
from a mid-major conference expect to make it in the tourney? Stay tuned
for my next column.
