Surprise Team: Maryland
After missing out on the NCAA
Tournament last year, and losing head-case John Gilchrist after he decided
to leave school early, the Terps return 9 of their top-10 scorers, will
fear none of their opponents after playing the 10th-hardest schedule in
the country last year, and have a huge home-court advantage after setting
a school record for attendance at home games last year.
Most
Overrated Team: Arizona
Sadly (as
they are one of my favorite teams), I do not think Arizona will live up to
their preseason top-10 ranking in most polls. They just have too many
factors working against them: they lost their 2 leading scorers/free throw
shooters to the NBA draft (Salim Stoudamire and Channing Frye), their top
returning sophomore is academically ineligible for the immediate future (Jawann
McClellan), one of their top guards is recovering from a knee injury
(Chris Rodgers), one of their senior tri-captains/biggest post players is
coming off a season of 2 PPG and a previous charge of shoplifting a candy
bar and bagel (Isaiah Fox), they are facing a loaded Pac-10 conference
(Stanford, Washington, UCLA, California, and others), and Lute Olson chose
this year to install a new offense. However, if their highly regarded
freshman class exceeds expectations, or if Hassan Adams becomes an
All-American, or if they somehow start the season with a bang by beating
Kansas, Connecticut, and Michigan State to win the Maui Invitational…you
may disregard everything listed above.
Top NBA
Prospect: Daniel Gibson (Texas)
2004-05
stats: 14.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.8 SPG
Most
people around the country think that Connecticut’s Rudy Gay will be the
first pick of next year’s NBA draft and quickly become the next Scottie
Pippen or Grant Hill. While this might all be true, I think Gibson is
just as good a prospect. At the tender age of 19, he has already proven
that he can score from anywhere, drive past anyone, and find the open man
when he needs to. At 6’2” and 190 pounds, he is bigger and stronger than
many collegiate point guards, without sacrificing any quickness. He
entered college last year with a mountain of hype, and lived up to all of
it. Nobody knows how long he will stay in college, but I believe he will
follow the path of a former Big 12 point guard who turned out to be a
pretty good NBA Finals MVP: simply put, Gibson is the second coming of
Chauncey Billups.
Surprise Player: Leon Powe
(California)
Cal finished next-to-last in
the Pac-10 standings last year, and lost a couple of key players to
graduation last spring, but a healthy Powe will be the Bears go-to guy,
and I expect him to average a double-double after sitting out all of last
season with an injured knee.)
Most
Overrated Player: Randolph Morris (Kentucky)
2004-05
stats: 8.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.9 BPG, 61.5 FT%
It is hard
to overrate a sophomore who played less than 20 minutes/game as a
freshman. However, when you average under 9 points and 5 rebounds per
game, declare yourself eligible for the NBA draft, and then return to
school with your tail between your legs after going undrafted, that does
not make you the average sophomore. Now that Chuck Hayes and Kelenna
Azubuike are gone from the Wildcat frontcourt, former McDonald’s
All-American Morris will only have his talent preventing him from getting
major minutes on the hardwood this season. If Morris lives up to his high
expectations, he might move on up to the “Top NBA Prospect” category, but
for the moment, he can have the overrated category all to himself.
First Coach to Get Fired: Rob Evans (Arizona State)
Losing 8 seniors who saw
playing time last year is bad enough; facing traditional Pac-10 powers
(Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA) and a new Pac-10 power (Washington) is even
worse; but having all of that AND losing Ike Diogu to the NBA lottery will
render the Sun Devils a sub-.500 team.
Most Underrated Conference: Big
East
I know that it is getting a lot
of publicity here and there, but this year it could singlehandedly shift
the balance of power in college basketball from the ACC. With 16 teams
from 13 different states (if my math is correct), I predict that they will
have 3 teams in the same Final 4 by the end of the decade.
Top Mid-Major Team: Gonzaga
Can someone PLEASE add them to
a major conference before Mark Few gets a major offer to coach a team who
already plays in such a conference?!
BCS Team Most Likely to Go
Undefeated in Conference Play: Michigan State
I doubt it will happen,
but as Duke will have the bulls-eye on its chest, Texas and Oklahoma will
beat each other up, ditto Connecticut and Villanova, and Arizona and
Kentucky are not as dominant as they have been in the past, I like the
Spartans’ chances best. They are phenomenal at home, Illinois lost a ton
from last year’s NCAA runner-up, and Wisconsin is no longer invincible
on their own home court. The Spartans will certainly be put to the test
in the opening weekend of 2006, due to games in Champaign and Madison
within a 48-hour span. If they emerge from that weekend 2-0, I predict
they will run the table in the Big 10.
National Champion: Duke
Other Final Four Teams: Boston College, Maryland, Villanova
Player of the Year: Shelden
Williams
All-American Team (Please choose 5 different positions):
PG: Daniel Gibson (Texas)
SG: JJ Redick (Duke)
SF: Jared Dudley (Boston College)
PF: Shelden Williams (Duke)
C: Josh Boone (Connecticut)
Rookie of the Year: Josh McRoberts (Duke)
