By almost all accounts, the Duke Blue Devils
will begin the 2005-06 season as the #1 team in the nation, in both the
Coaches and AP polls. This is fitting, considering they start two consensus
first team All-Americans (J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams) and have one of the
best, if not the best, freshman class in the nation.
So what are the chances of Duke winning it all this year? Well, based on
past preseason polls, I’m here to tell you that the odds are, well, not
good.
While the AP poll began in 1949, the very first preseason poll wasn’t
introduced until 1962, which had Ohio State
#1. There, the Buckeyes remained all year until they lost in the
championship game to Cincinnati. In
the 43 preseason polls done since, the AP has predicted the winner just 12
times. Furthermore, of those 12 preseason #1’s that went on to win the
title, 6 of them were called the UCLA Bruins. It’s
safe to say that picking UCLA as the preseason #1 in the middle of the
Alcinder/Walton 10 championship dynasty was not exactly rocket science.
But who cares about polls that came out 30 years ago you say. What’s the
recent track record? Good question.
In the last 15 seasons, eight preseason #1’s went at least as far as the
Final Four. Of those, three won the title (Duke 1992, Kentucky 1996, and
UConn 2004), four lost in the championship game (Michigan 1993, Arkansas
1995, Duke 1999, and Arizona 2001), and one lost in the semifinals (UNLV
1991). As for the rest, three lost in the second round (North Carolina 1994,
Cincinnati 1997, and UConn 2000), Arizona fell twice in the Elite Eight
(1998 and 2003), and the preseason #1 lost once in the Sweet 16 (Duke 2002),
and the first round (Kansas 2005).
So what does all this mean? Absolutely nothing, except that in a
single-elimination tournament, anything can, and usually does, happen. This
is why the NCAA Tournament is the best postseason in all of sports, and why
Duke fans – while they have a lot to cheer about this season – shouldn’t
take anything for granted.
As great as Duke may be this season, every single opponent they face will
be ready and eager to knock them off. There’s always the possibility that a
less talented team – on paper at least – will play well above themselves, a
la Villanova’s ridiculous 90% shooting percentage in the second half of the
1985 title game against Georgetown.
No one understands that better than Coach K himself, whose Blue Devils
defeated what many consider to be one of the greatest college teams of all
time, the 1990-91 UNLV Running Rebels. With a 34-0 record coming into the
Final Four, a 45 game winning streak dating back to the 1990 season where
they obliterated Duke for the national championship, and a lineup that
featured Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Stacey Augmon, and Anderson Hunt, most
sportswriters predicted that a repeat championship was a foregone
conclusion.
Yet after two clutch free throws by Christian Laettner in the final
seconds, and a missed 25-footer at the buzzer by Hunt, it was Duke 79, UNLV
77. There would be a repeat champion - the Blue Devils the following year.
One more thing to consider: Four NCAA champions - UCLA (1964), UTEP
(1966), Villanova (1985), and Syracuse (2003) - were not even ranked at the
start of the season, and two more - Arizona (1997) and NC State (1983) were
both ranked at a measly 19th in the preseason. As the saying goes, that’s
why we play the games.
The start of the official college basketball season starts in two weeks.
Until then, we’ll all be making our predictions on who is going to do what.
The preseason polls will come out and be debated endlessly. Then, once the
ball finally goes up in the air, they won’t matter one bit.
