On paper at least, this season does not look like it will be a banner one for the proud Kansas Jayhawk program.

Of the 13 players on their current roster, 10 of them are either freshmen or sophomores.  In fact, the Big 12 regular season champs return just one starter from a team that was on the receiving end of the biggest upset of the year, Bucknell’s shocker in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

That starter, Christian Moody, was a walk-on for three years before earning a scholarship last year.  He is the leading returning scorer at just 5.8 points a game, and the leading rebounder at 4.7 a game.  In fact, Moody is the only one of KU’s top seven scorers last season who will be back.  Sophomore Russell Robinson will be the leading returning passer, with an average of one assist per game.  That’s right, one.

Seniors Keith Langford, Aaron Miles, Michael Lee as well as superstar Wayne Simien graduated.  The team’s third leading scorer last season, J.R. Giddens, was thrown off the team for his role in a bar fight that left six people injured with knife wounds, including himself.  Finally, freshman Alex Galindo, who scored over 4 points a game, transferred to Florida International.

Together, these six departing players averaged 63 points a game.  The team as a whole averaged 75 points a game. 

No wonder ESPN’s preseason Top 25, had the Jayhawks barely hanging on at #25.  And that may have been more out of respect for the program’s history than anything. 

So what kind of season can Jayhawk fans expect this year? Quite possibly, a great one.

The reason is simple, “The Fab Four” (with apologies to fans of Michigan and The Beatles) freshman class of Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers, and Micah Downs.  This incoming class might be even better than Duke’s, and will all see significant playing time as the season progresses.  All four could even be starting come tournament time, making this Kansas team more dangerous than most everyone expected. 

Obviously, one cannot win with freshmen alone.  Sophomores like 7-footer Sasha Kaun, C.J. Giles and Robinson will all be important factors this year.  Early reports claim Kaun and Giles are vastly improved and more polished in the post.  However, Kaun needs to improve on his ghastly free throw shooting if he is to be as effective as the Jayhawks need him to be.  Robinson could show flashes of his potential at the point now that he will be given an opportunity for more playing time.   

Christian Moody will be the senior leader of this team and continue to be a solid contributor.  In addition, USC transfer Rodrick Stewart, a starter most of his freshman season who averaged 4.4 points and 2.2 rebounds a game, will be eligible come spring.

One other factor is that this is now completely Coach Bill Self’s team, which is significant.  No one will admit on record that it was an issue, but the senior class of last year’s team were all brought in by Roy Williams, and went to two consecutive Final Fours under him.  Williams is obviously a great coach, one of the greatest in the game, but he had a much more up-tempo, higher-scoring coaching style than does Self, and that was something Simien and company had to adjust to against their will when Williams unexpectedly left. 

These freshmen and sophomores don’t have to be sold on Self’s coaching philosophy; they already bought into it before they signed the letter of intent. 

The young team will get a trial by fire out in Maui in November, where they will square up against Arizona, and then possibly Connecticut, followed by Michigan State, Maryland or Gonzaga – every one of them a potential top ten team.  If ever there was an early season tournament where freshmen realize they’re not in high school anymore, this year’s Maui Invitational is it. 

But the real test will come February 25th at Austin, where Kansas will play one of the best teams in America at a raucous Erwin Center.  This game will tell an awful lot about how far the young Jayhawks have come going into the Big 12 Tournament. 

There is a precedent for very young teams making a great run in the postseason – and I don’t just mean Michigan.  The 1997 Arizona team, also ranked low in the preseason and led by a freshman at the point, comes to mind.  Although, whether Chalmers is the next Mike Bibby remains to be seen. 

Ironically, this team might also resemble the 2003 Syracuse squad that beat Kansas for the national championship.  Moody is in many ways similar to Kueth Duany, the senior who may not have had the most talent on the floor but was well-respected and considered the leader of the team.  Julian Wright could well be another Carmelo Anthony should he live up to the hype (a very big if, granted), and Rush and Chalmers could adapt to the college game as quickly as the freshman duo of Gerry McNamara and Billy Edelin, who played like veterans in the Final Four. 

Of course these are all best-case scenarios.  But even if this young Kansas team does not enjoy success as quickly as they would like, and finish third in the Big 12 as predicted, KU fans will still have plenty to look forward to.  Combined with yet another great freshman class (thanks to Sherron Collins) these would-be sophomores could make the Jayhawks a potent title contender in 2006-07, much as Texas has developed into one this season. 

But it says here that the future is now for the Jayhawks, and while they may be picked in the lower tier of the preseason polls, they will end up in the top ten in the postseason polls.  They should make a run in the NCAA Tournament, hopefully enough for some diehard fans to finally stop griping about Roy Williams, and start appreciating Bill Self.