mdevildugan@yahoo.com

January 31st, 2006

Pac-10 Basketball Report: Who Will Be Dancing?

At its halfway point, one could easily make the argument that the Pac-10 season has yielded far more questions than answers. Indeed, the only constant thus far has been inconsistency (though a more jaded observer might actually say “mediocrity”).  Therefore, it should surprise no one that as we head into February UCLA appears to be the only “lock” to make the NCAA tournament, which leaves four or five other teams struggling to make an impression upon the selection committee. 

However, after back-to-back humbling defeats on national TV—two Saturdays ago, UCLA went down to West Virginia and Arizona got hammered by North Carolina this weekend—the conference is deluding themselves if they think more than four teams will get in.  In fact, a more likely scenario would have the conference getting only three invitations, with Arizona, Cal, Stanford, USC and Washington competing for the remaining two spots.

The wildcard in all this, of course, is the Pac-10 Tournament, where a team could easily erase a season’s worth of second-rate play and earn an automatic bid.  Thus, with the caveat that they won’t win the conference’s post-season tournament, here’s the resume for each team:

Arizona: Despite their loss at North Carolina on Saturday, the Wildcats appear to be in a good spot.  In large part due to their strength of schedule, which is currently fourth, Arizona is 16^th in the RPI rankings. However, a solid win wouldn’t hurt: they are 0-4 against the RPI top 50.

Although the schedule plays out well for them in the long run—five of their remaining nine games are at the McKale Center—the Wildcats face a potentially seasoning-defining road trip to LA this weekend.

Certainly, with USC playing better all the time under Tim Floyd and considering UCLA has already beaten them in Tucson, a 0-2 weekend is a distinct possibility. Another 6-3 run through the in second half of the Pac-10, however, and it would seem impossible for a team with Arizona’s pedigree to be left out with a 12-6 conference record.

California: Cal is hampered significantly by a poor strength of schedule and an RPI of 72, the latter thanks to a seasoning opening loss to 3-14 Eastern Michigan.  However, Leon Powe, still recovering from ACL surgery, did not play in that game, and the selection committee says they take injuries into account; it may not be as damaging as it seems on the surface.

Otherwise, a 6-3 conference record, including wins over UCLA and Washington, puts the Bears in a nice position. A 12-6 Pac-10 record combined with 18 regular season wins would be hard to leave out, regardless of RPI.

Like Arizona, Cal plays five of their remaining nine games at home, where they are 9-1 this season.  A trip to Seattle in late February to play Washington could loom large, though.

Stanford: In December, it would have laughable to use the words “Stanford” and “tournament” in the same sentence, unless, of course, you were talking about the National Invitational Tournament.  Even so, a recent spate of improved play has the Cardinal indeed thinking tournament—NCAA tournament.

They have won six of seven—two of the wins were over Cal and Washington—with their only loss in that stretch coming in overtime at Arizona.

Still, losses to both UC Davis and UC Irvine will be hard to overcome, if not impossible when you consider their RPI is 89.  Even more damning, Stanford owns a 1-5 record on the road, with their only victory coming in Tempe over positively dreadful Arizona State.

Realistically, the Cardinal needs to go 7-2 the rest way and do well in the Pac-10 tournament, both of which seems possible.

UCLA: Barring a major collapse, the Bruins are playing for a high seed at this point.  Their RPI of 14, not to mention their undefeated road record (they played Drexel and Memphis on a neutral court), make them a virtual lock.  A 3-2 record versus the RPI top 50 doesn’t hurt either.

No worries, they’re in.

USC: No one thought the Trojans would be in a position to get 15 wins this year, let alone make a run at the tournament.  And while they are a long-shot entry, their resume isn’t totally without merit.  Their 13-6 record includes a victory over North Carolina in December, something made more attractive when the Tar Heels battered Arizona on Saturday.

Nevertheless, losses to Cal State-Northridge and Oral Roberts to open the season are hard to reconcile, especially considering the Trojans sport an RPI ranking of 102.

Yet, if USC can find someway to eke out seven more wins this year, a 20-win season would give the selection committee something to think about. 

Washington: When they began the Pac-10 season, the Huskies were not only undefeated, but they were also ranked in the top 10 and had a 31-game home winning streak.  Therefore, at the time, it was assumed that were a lock for the tournament.

However, after being swept in northern California over the weekend—dropping their conference record to 5-4—Washington is now a bubble team. True, they own wins over Gonzaga and UCLA, but their rather pedestrian conference record, combined with an ordinary RPI ranking of 56 puts them in a precarious spot.

Complicating matters further for Lorenzo Romar’s team: they will be on the road for a majority of their remaining games, a place where they played only four times all season.