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November 13th, 2005

College Basketball: How to Beat Duke

Unless you’ve been living under a rock the past couple of weeks, you know that many of the experts around America have tabbed the Duke Blue Devils as the favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis this coming April. With two proven All-Americans in J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams, and an excellent recruiting class led by the likes of Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus, there are many reasons on the court to like the Devils. Add to this the genius of head coach Mike Krzyzewski and his more than capable assistants (Johnny Dawkins, Chris Collins, and Steve Wojciechowski), and you have a team that was picked to win it all by eight of the twelve writers on this website. But contrary to the majority opinion, this team can be beaten. Below you will find some key areas that can be exploited, as well as some of the teams that can get the job done.

1) Duke is not as deep on the interior as one would believe.

Sure, they have Williams, McRoberts, and another freshman in 6-10 Eric Boateng, but who else is there after that? Lee Melchionni filled in admirably at times last year, giving Coach K an intense effort and the bonus of hitting some outside shots when teams took away the one-two punch of Redick and “The Landlord”. The only problem is that Lee’s more of a perimeter player. Past those four, I see Patrick Davidson, David McClure, and another freshman in Jamal Boykin (considered a project for the future). Davidson can give you a banger down low for a couple of minutes, but that’s about it. And McClure’s status is still to be determined after having surgery on his knee this off-season. This won’t put the Devils in the “pray Shelden doesn’t get in foul trouble” mindset that they had the past two seasons, but one does have to worry about their depth.

How do you beat Duke on the interior? Get Williams and/or McRoberts in foul trouble, playing a physical game. Or rotate fresh bodies into the lineup on a frequent basis to tire them out.

Who is capable of doing this (In no particular order; key players in parentheses)? Texas (LaMarcus Aldredge, Brad Buckman, P.J. Tucker, Mike Williams), Oklahoma (Taj Gray, Kevin Bookout, Longar Longar), Connecticut (Josh Boone, Rudy Gay, Hilton Armstrong, Ed Nelson, Jeff Adrien), Georgetown (Brandon Bowman, Jeff Green, Amadou Kilkenny-Diaw, Roy Hibbert), Maryland (Nik Caner-Medley, Travis Garrison, Will Bowers, James Gist, Ekene Ibekwe).

 2) The point guard position can be attacked.

The role of a point guard on the 2005-06 Blue Devils would seem to be an easy one to fulfill. Just get the ball down low to Shelden, or hit J.J. coming off of a screen for a three. But given the recent history of Duke Basketball, from Daniel Ewing back to the likes of Jason Williams, the aforementioned “Wojo”, Jeff Capel, and Bobby Hurley, this a position from which Coach K demands a lot. You must be a coach on the floor, showing the ability to get the offense running as well as putting heavy defensive pressure on the opposing point guard. The Devils return Sean Dockery, who missed the end of last season with a knee injury. Dockery did a fine job of running the show when in the game, supplying an improved jumper in addition to his stifling defense. Add to the roster McDonald’s All-American Paulus, who was by far the most unselfish in the all-star game last spring by far. When in a pinch last season, Duke looked to DeMarcus Nelson for some relief on the perimeter as well. Whoever emerges from this group will have to supply a consistent perimeter scoring option, given the defensive goals of their opponents.

How do you attack Duke on the perimeter? By having a savvy point guard who will not turn the ball over and other perimeter options that can both slash and hit the outside shot. The guards will also need to be sound defenders who do not put the Devils on the foul line.

Which teams can do this (In no particular order; key players in parentheses)? Villanova (Mike Nardi, Allan Ray, Randy Foye, Kyle Wright), Arizona (Mustafa Shakur, J.P. Prince, Hassan Adams, Chris Rogers, Marcus Williams), Michigan State (Drew Neitzel, Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown), Stanford (Chris Hernandez, Dan Grunfeld, Fred Washington, Jason Haas, Tim Morris), Kentucky (Rajon Rando, Patrick Sparks, Joe Crawford, Ravi Moss, Ramel Bradley).

3) In the one-and-done world known as the NCAA Tournament, you never know what could happen.

I’m not saying that an energetic 16-seed could send Duke packing, but one can never fully predict what’s going to happen come March. Could an injury similar to the one suffered by Cincinnati’s Kenyon Martin happen to either Redick or Williams, ending their chances before they begin? Or maybe an off shooting night from the outside or foul trouble in the paint similar to the 2004 Final Four game against Connecticut? These are both distinct possibilities, but it makes no sense fretting about elements that are out of one’s control. Here are two short history lessons.

In the 1998 West Regional, the Arizona Wildcats were thought of as well on their way to San Antonio, with a good shot at repeating as national champs. This resulted in a role reversal from the previous season (“Kansas and everyone else”, 1997), putting the Cats on a pedestal. The only problem was that Utah came to the regional final armed with two weapons: a “triangle-and-two” gimmick defense devised by head coach Rick Majerus to force the third option (Michael Dickerson) to make some shots, and an excellent PG by the name of Andre Miller. What happened? Dickerson couldn’t make a shot, and Miller recorded the first triple-double in Utes tournament history, soundly beating Arizona.

As if that story didn’t get across the point that being the team with the bull’s-eye on your chest isn’t dangerous enough, all the current Blue Devils can ask the 1999 team about their own personal experience. After rolling through their first four games of the Dance, the Duke steamroller pulled into St. Petersburg, Florida to the sounds of “Welcome to the Duke Invitational” on ESPN and every other media outlet. After getting through Michigan State, Connecticut was the only thing between the Devils and their first title since 1992. But thanks to a caravan of big men and outstanding performances from guard Khalid El-Amin, Richard Hamilton, and Ricky Moore, it was the Huskies who went home with the hardware, 77-74.

Opponents should consider themselves warned, because you don’t put on the Duke uniform without knowing that every night you will get the other team’s best shot. So don’t sit around and wait for them to freeze under pressure, because you’ll then get to sit around and watch them move on.

***

To be honest with you, it is difficult any year to find a way to beat Duke. But this time around, the task is one that will be the toughest since their last title back in 2001. But these games are played in packed arenas on wood floors, not on paper or a computer. Above are a couple of keys to beating the Devils. If executed properly, someone can pull off what many have been led to believe is near impossible. But then again, maybe the rest of America should just recognize the talent of this team and hope for a miracle.