Preseason Final Four Predictions 07-08

[HoyaAG]

Re: Memphis

You would know better than I. My comment was certainly more intended for Tennessee and I think Memphis has a better shot to be in the Final Four than Tennessee. I do think teams get better with better competition and CUSA does hurt the Memphis team a bit. Either way, I expect them to be #1 seed but more likely to get knocked off than UCLA or UNC.

I think half court sets are a problem for even very good teams that tend to run a lot. Look at Georgetown/UNC last year. UNC was a great offensive team, but Lawson really couldn't utilize his speed to the fullest and they settled for a lot of jumpers even with Tyler Hansbrough on their team. Too many teams that run, run weaker opponents out of the gym but seem to struggle disproportionately when an opponent gets back on D.

Re: Georgetown

I keep reading this "struggle to score" stuff and I don't understand it. Yes, Jeff Green was an amazing player. He was the focus of defenses and our go-to guy when the clock rolled down. Very efficient and could create somewhat for himself as well as others.

Ken Pomeroy ranked our offense 2nd in Adj Offensive Efficiency last year. We return Roy Hibbert, who is as close to unstoppable with the ball as any player in college basketball. He had by far the highest O Rating of any player with at 20% possessions used.

We've got outside shooting to space the floor for Roy. Probably better than last year -- Pat Ewing is an excellent set shooter and our recruits are also excellent outside shooters. The only time we'll likely be a worse 3 point shooting team is if someone regresses significantly or when Macklin and Hibbert are on the floor together.

We went through Jeff went the shot clock went low last year, and I agree, if our team didn't change, our number of 24 second clock violations would go drastically up. But this team has a lot more options from the perimeter.

One, DaJuan Summers is going to step up, I think, and he has a lot of low post and perimeter skills that he didn't get to show last year.

Two, when either Austin Freeman or Chris Wright is in the game, they are going to be better "last five seconds of the shot clock" type of players than Jeff Green was if he was isolated on the perimeter.

Where we will miss Jeff the most, I think, is his scoring around the basket. Pat Ewing is likely to get a lot of his time, and he's simply not a low post player. He passes well, hits the three, plays with passion, but he's not a post finisher like Jeff. Summers has post moves but he's no Jeff. Macklin, well, there's lots of positive talk, but I'm wait and see. So I think the biggest issue is when Roy is out or ineffective, do we have any inside game? But we have more perimeter options and a few people who can step up inside.

Last point. Georgetown's efficiency ratings under Thompson:

2004-2005 36th, starting 3 freshman in a brand new system
2005-2006 9th
2006-2007 2nd

If anything this year, I'm worried about defensive rebounding when Roy is out.

[arudefish]

Hoya, I think you misread my post. I said they'd have "little trouble", not "a little trouble". That means I think their offense will prove to be just about as good as it was last year. My point was that their defense will determine how far they advance, because their offense under JTIII just keeps getting better and better.

[hawkeyeupnorth]

Originally Posted by arudefish

Many people have a misconception about Memphis, which is the idea that they can't score in the half-court. Did you watch their tournament games last year? Obviously, they feed off of their defense, but they didn't rely on full-court pressure last year like they did in '05-'06. Sure, they ran opportunistically, but they also got into their offensive sets quite often and were top-25 nationally in offensive efficiency (right there with UCLA, Wisconsin, Kansas, Vandy, etc.). Until they had a few mental breakdowns in the Ohio State game at about the 5 minute mark, they were matching the Buckeyes tit-for-tat in the half-court.

And don't think for a minute that Jeremy Hunt wasn't a major reason why (if not THE major reason). We've had this discussion before, but I definitely think the questions about Memphis in the halfcourt are legit. Nobody on the whole team is a natural go-to guy except for CDR, and you can pack it in on him without too much trouble at all.

A fairly minor issue on the whole, but when talking about championship hopes, it must be brought up.

Also keep in mind that Pomeroy's offensive efficiency is a measure of total offense, not just halfcourt offense. It offers nothing in an argument about halfcourt vs fullcourt debate, because a good fast breaking team is going to have a better offensive rating than a bad one.

[HoyaAG]

Originally Posted by arudefish

Hoya, I think you misread my post. I said they'd have "little trouble", not "a little trouble". That means I think their offense will prove to be just about as good as it was last year. My point was that their defense will determine how far they advance, because their offense under JTIII just keeps getting better and better.

Yep, I completely misread. Probably because I just read something yesterday where someone wrote the opposite.

[jtom2141]

This probably wont be accurate, but these teams jumped out as one that might have a winning NCAA Tournament recipe in place.

Indiana- Gordon and White will be a terror in the tournament if Sampson can coach them correctly. If Gordon doesn't get hurt/fatigued he may be the toughest guy to stop in a tournament setting because he can penetrate, get to the line with his strength and basically control the tempo of a game. If you look at most successful tournament teams they need that one penetrating scoring guard/wing and one post player to command double teams and then shooters/defenders/rebounders to surround them.

NC State- Their athletic, interchangeable frontline may have a bigger effect on the defensive end where they should be able to outrebound most opponents, another huge factor in the tournament. Their guards are suspect but most of their big men can handle and pass well enough to offset that. Rotating McCauley, Costner, Grant, Hickson and Tracy Smith is just insane.

Mississippi State- Great, penetrating guard, solid post player, great shooters around both of them. The personnel is almost perfect for a deep NCAA run. Rebounding may be a problem but that's hard to determine right now.

Vanderbilt- This is kind of a shot in the dark. But for some reason they always seem to be dangerous in the Tournament. Not sure what Stallings know that others don't. Foster should be able to step right in and replace Byars as the go-to guy, Gordon is solid and experienced at the point and they have some decent role players who can defend and/or rebound. The wild card should be the Australian freshman center Ogilvie. He destroyed the U-19 Championships, is a legit 7-1 and if he is as good as scouts say he is, could be a dominant post player right away (and yes, I'll go ahead and make the Bogut comparison). This could be a poor man's '07 Georgetown, which wouldn't be that bad of a thing.

Having said all that, I wouldnt be surprised if none of these even made the tournament.

[jtom2141]

Originally Posted by arudefish

Arizona (surprise pick - call it the Shakur/Radenovic theory)

I was thinking about them too. I completely and totally subscribe to the Shakur/Radenovic/Williams theory (dont forget about Marcus Williams as a staple of their dysfunction). Run the offense through Budinger (who needs the ball a lot to utilize all his talent) and Bayless, who is supposed to be better than Shakur already, or so the hype says. Hope Hill develops as a low-post threat but at the very least is a rebounder/shot-blocker/screener. Horne has a ton of potential and McClellan brings a lot of intangibles. Throw in Lute Olson and they have a real shot at going deep in the tourney.

[arudefish]

Originally Posted by hawkeyeupnorth

And don't think for a minute that Jeremy Hunt wasn't a major reason why (if not THE major reason). We've had this discussion before, but I definitely think the questions about Memphis in the halfcourt are legit. Nobody on the whole team is a natural go-to guy except for CDR, and you can pack it in on him without too much trouble at all.

A fairly minor issue on the whole, but when talking about championship hopes, it must be brought up.

Also keep in mind that Pomeroy's offensive efficiency is a measure of total offense, not just halfcourt offense. It offers nothing in an argument about halfcourt vs fullcourt debate, because a good fast breaking team is going to have a better offensive rating than a bad one.

Well, I won't argue that. Hunt was the #1 reason the Tigers were in the Elite Eight. It amazed me that very few noticed in the media, but he had brilliant games in rounds two, three, and four.

My feeling is that Mack and Kemp will be more important as the designated shooters in the rotation, and that CDR, Anderson, and Rose need to be just consistent enough shooting the ball to keep defenses honest.

Still, the Tigers became a pretty good passing team by the end of last year - that needs to continue, and Rose will certainly be a huge boost in that department. Anderson and CDR are good passers for their position as well. Yeah, I worry about shooting lapses, but I think Memphis still has good passers and a good variety of offensive skills spread throughout their lineup. Open looks will be there, and they needto become about 3-4 percentage points better as a team from three if they seriously aspire to win it all.

[nachosgrande]

UCLA
Louisville
Tennessee
Kansas

Arizona won't make the tournament this year. They lost three of their top-4 players. Don't buy the addition by subtraction theory. Said the same thing when Hassan Adams and Chris Rodgers left two years ago and they only got worse last year. Budinger can't defend anyone. Pick him up on the break and deny him the outside shot and he's shut down. McLellan is a shell of the player he was coming out of HS due to the chronic knee injuries. Hill has the best potential in their lineup. Bayless better be a hell of a player as a freshman or they are looking at the NIT for sure. UCLA, WSU, Oregon, USC, Stanford and Washington are all ahead of the Cats at this point. And I'm not sure if Cal isn't a better team as well.

[jaytalker]

UNC
UCLA
Kansas
Texas A&M ( dark horse)

Although Bill Self has never busted through the Elite Eight game before, he has to make it sometime.

Never believing in preparing for another team, he goes by the theory of making the other team adjust to his team. Mostly I believe in that theory. Unfortunately for Bill Self and his KU teams it has led to other teams preparing everything to beat KU exclusively and getting the upset.

I believe that once again KU will be one of the best, if not the best, defensive teams in the college ranks. I expect that KU will be again amoung the leaders in def FG %, steals and blocked shots.

Losing Julian Wright will hurt but it also gives Darrel Arthur comand of the BF spot. DA is a natural BF unlike Wright who was a player in between spots. Kansas will have once again the depth at the bigs as Kaun and Arthur will start and be backed up by Jackson (experienced Sr) and Aldrich (a McD freshman).

Although the frontcourt is solid, the backcourt may be the best in the land. Robinson and Chalmers form probably the best set of thieves as about 1/8 of all their opponents' possessions end up in those two's hands. Collins is one who can make the offense run even better when he is on the court. His being slowed in the end of KU's run in last years tourney many point to as the main reason for KU's elite eight loss.

Of course, Brandon Rush is also returning and the reports are favoring his return to the lineup around Dec 1. In listing the attributes of a SF that one would like to see in a SF, it would seem Rush covers that very well. From outside shooting to midrange shooting to attacking the rim on drives, Rush has shown his offensive talents. Rush also rebounds well (6 rbs) and is considered the best one on one defender on the team. His main problem comes from not demanding the stage as often as he should.

Tyler Reed (KU's future PG, freshman), Case, Morningstar and Stewart add depth at the guards positions.

So once again the promise of a new season starts with KU seeming loaded. Maybe this year they come thru.

[gotigers]

UCLA(3 yrs. in a row)
UNC
Georgetown
Memphis

Nothing like going out on limb or anything.