Sleeper of the Century (warning: advanced stats)

hawkeyeupnorth · #1 01-10-2008, 01:55 PM

Those of you who don't believe in advanced stats can click off this thread right now - this discussion isn't for you.

I'm going to give a statistical breakdown of four elite freshman guards. I will reveal their identities later tonight. The challenge is to figure out which stat line is who. Three should be easy, and the 4th might be also. But there is one here that is much, much less hyped than the other three.

The stats being used here, w/ a brief explanation if necessary.

TAPts/40, TAReb/40, TAAst/40, and so on - I have taken all the basic stats and adjusted them for pace (to the national average of 68.0) and minutes played (/40). Neither adjustment is perfect, but I think both help paint a more accurate picture in a player-by-player comparison.

EFG% - Regular FG%, with 3-pointers weighted 50% more to account for the extra point scored.

TAFGA/40 - I'm not sure if I believe that Assists and Turnovers should be included in usage - I like to use shots taken instead. The theory is that the same efficiency at a higher rate of usage is harder to achieve. Just keep in mind that for players with higher assists and turnover rates, the usage listed here might be lower than a lot of people would claim.

PPWS - Points per shot taken, with a possesion-based value of .47 used for FTA's.

FTRT - Straight FTA / FGA, a good measure of how often a player is getting to the basket, creating his own shot, forcing the defense to foul.

OppD - From the Pomeroy *Ratings* page, combined defensive efficiency of opponents. Since most of the numbers I'll be referencing deal with offense, this should give an appropriate context for quality of competition. To me, this is something that gets washed over way too often in the discussion/debate of individual college basketball players. The range here is 2.6 pts, or approximately 130 national ranking spots.

***normally I would do an analysis of all opponent stats vs quality opponent stats, but I don't have time to go through it all right now and this turned into a fairly lengthy analysis as is***

Player 1 - (TAPts/40)22.36 (TAReb/40)5.23 (TAAst/40)3.17 (TATO/40)4.36 (TAStl/40)1.67 (TABlk/40)0.40 (EFG%)51.7% (TAFGA/40)18.55 (PPWS)1.09 FTRT(.22) OPPD(97.6)

Player 2 - (TAPts/40)26.05 (TAReb/40)8.02 (TAAst/40)3.63 (TATO/40)3.05 (TAStl/40)2.58 (TABlk/40)0.86 (EFG%)60.2% (TAFGA/40)15.46 (PPWS)1.31 (FTRT).61 (OPPD)100.0

Player 3 - (TAPts/40)19.06 (TAReb/40)5.60 (TAAst/40)5.98 (TATO/40)4.17 (TAStl/40)1.52 (TABlk/40)0.57 (EFG%)53.6% (TAFGA/40)12.99 (PPWS)1.16 (FTRT).56 (OPPD)98.3

Player 4 - (TAPts/40)27.81 (TAReb/40)3.65 (TAAst/40)2.64 (TATO/40)4.10(TAStl/40)1.73 (TABlk/40)0.82 (EFG%)60.7% (TAFGA/40)15.41 (PPWS)1.36(FTRT).69 (OPPD)100.2

So obviously you can go into the **Pomeroy Ratings** page and figure out the teams based on the opponent Def numbers I gave, but somebody should be able to figure this out without looking.

Wander · #2 01-10-2008, 02:43 PM

Just off the top of my head, the first guy has to be Mayo. He's gotta be either 1 or 4 because he's turning the ball over more than he's getting assists, but I don't think Mayo gets as many blocks as number 4 does. I'll give a little thought to the others.

DCCats · #3 01-10-2008, 02:44 PM

Rose, Mayo, Gordon are the most obvious so assuming their inclusion.

Took me, I think, longer than a second to come up with the fourth. Based on the McDs rosters from last year (East: Nick Calathes, Johnny Flynn, Austin Freeman, Nolan Smith, Chris Wright. West: Jerryd Bayless, James Harden, Jai Lucas) and because of his performance last night I'm guessing it's Harden. Bayless has talked about a lot more here for his importance to AZ so you might be trying to highlight that as well.

Guessing Rose is the one with fewest points and Gordon is one of the top two scorers. #1's FT number can't be right...

So my guess is:
Mayo
Harden (or Bayless or someone else? I'm going to guess that this is the one you are trying to point out is less hyped but statistically better)
Rose
Gordon

Wander · #4 01-10-2008, 02:46 PM

For some reason, I thought this was only point guards. I see now that I misread it, and given that it's just freshmen guards, number 4 has to be Gordon - high scoring, turning the ball over more than getting assists, a little less than a block a game, etc.

And, yeah, I assume number 3 is Rose, but it didn't immediately jump out at me like the other two.

DCCats · #5 01-10-2008, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hawkeyeupnorth

FTRT - Straight FTA / FGA, a good measure of how often a player is getting to the basket, creating his own shot, forcing the defense to foul.

Player 4 - (TAPts/40)27.81 (TAReb/40)3.65 (TAAst/40)2.64 (TATO/40)4.10(TAStl/40)1.73 (TABlk/40)0.82 (EFG%)60.7% (TAFGA/40)15.41 (PPWS)1.36(FTRT).69 (OPPD)100.2

I was thinking #4 was Gordon too...until I read this on a Seth David CNNSI.com article (and confirmed on Indiana officical site):

"Here's yet another reason to love Indiana freshman Eric Gordon: Besides shooting 44.6 percent from three-point range, he has also attempted 117 free throws, the most in the Big Ten, in just 13 games. He's also second in the conference in free throw percentage (.855). (OK, so that's three reasons to love Eric Gordon.)"

Wander · #6 01-10-2008, 03:53 PM

FTRT isn't the same as free throw percentage. It's just a measure of how often a player gets to the free throw line. Although I think the one hawkeye is using is the less useful of the two variations - he's doing FTA/FGA, I think FTM/FGA makes more sense.

Good find on Harden though - I'm pretty sure you're right.

hawkeyeupnorth · #7 01-10-2008, 04:36 PM

I suppose I should have included 3-Pt% and FT%. I just forgot to throw them in my spreadsheet after I had calculated everything. If I have time, I'll edit the original post tonight.

I use FTA/FGA not as a measure of efficiency, but a measure of how much attention a player is garnering from the defense and how much of a leading role a player is capable of playing. You definitely have to compare players with similar usage rates and positions when using it, though.

I'd rather see FT% and FTA as seperate numbers as far as free throw efficiency, because a low-FGA player can look like a free throw shooting madman under some circumstances when it has nothing to do with his ability to draw free throws.

DCCats · #8 01-10-2008, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wander

FTRT isn't the same as free throw percentage. It's just a measure of how often a player gets to the free throw line.

Duh, guess I should have looked a little closer as FT% doesn't make sense based on the other numbers.

jtom2141 · #9 01-10-2008, 07:39 PM

Interesting that you would post this. I'm thinking of doing the next Freshman 10 as an advanced stats analysis. I've already looked at some guys. Love is extremely efficient, like among the best in the country and Mayo is, well, not. I'm interested to look at Beasley a little closer, though. And Harden is getting a SERIOUS bump in the rankings. Top 5 for sure at this rate.

hawkeyeupnorth · #10 01-10-2008, 09:32 PM

Yeah, you guys guessed it.

1. OJ Mayo
3. Derrick Rose
4. Eric Gordon

2. James Harden

That's right, James Harden's numbers are every bit as good as the one and only Eric Gordon's! The only freshmen to dominate the NCAA at level Harden is currently quickly became lottery picks. Can Harden be far behind, if he keeps this up?

Obviously no analysis is complete without a full look at the tape, but I don't know how much one needs to see from a freshman with these numbers. He's a pro all the way.