The teams that can win a title this year

jtom2141 · #1 01-29-2008, 06:15 PM

Alright, we talked about how no one posts here anymore and I mentioned that only a few teams looked anything like a title contender at this point, which generally lowers interest in college hoops all around. Coincidentally over the past week I have been working on a column about which teams I think have the best chance to win six games in a row in March. Grant Wahl at SI did a similar thing called the Magic 8, which is linked in the intro to this post. My concept is a bit different but achieves the same function. Here you go.

http://stopvitale.collegehoopsnet.co...g-this_29.html

I wrote this not to cause an argument, but given the thread on this board's growing irrelevance, I'm hoping this sparks discussion (assuming people actually read most of it). If it doesn't, I'm not really sure what will, short of Rick Majerus taking his pants off or Gerald Henderson eating Tyler Hansbrough.

rjaymoose · #2 01-29-2008, 11:40 PM

I understand your reasoning or Louisville, but let's just say I don't have much faith in Edgar Sosa making the right decisions with the ball late in close games. And as you pointed out, the maturity issues with some of those guys (Clark and Caracter) could sabotage the whole thing before they even get to the second round.

I'd still take Memphis, and the past two seasons they have improved from the line during NCAA Tournament play. A gimmick defense like the triangle and two that USC threw at them could cause problems, however.

SetonHallFTW · #3 01-29-2008, 11:57 PM

I think Memphis, Kansas, Stanford, Duke and Texas have legitimate shots at a national championship. Texas and Stanford might be a year off but they are much improved from last season. Especially Texas, their offense seems to run a lot better when Durant isn't taking a third of their shots.

Stanford is really interesting. They're #14 in the AP Polls and if they keep winning they'll only move up because the Pac-10 might have the strongest (if not second strongest to the Big East) RPI in America and the teams ahead of them in the polls have to play each other, Kansas/Texas, Duke/UNC, Wazzu/UCLA, Indiana/Michigan State/Wisconsin.
And we don't really expect Butler to finish the season ahead of them. I think if everything falls into place, Stanford could position themselves for as high as a 2 seed come tourney time. Then again if things go sour they could again find themselves with a double digit seed.

I think the reason why I'm pressing for Stanford to get it done now is because for Brook Lopez the pro buzz is happening and if he goes to the NBA after their year, they'll have to find a new power source for offense.

Xavier could also benefit from the teams in power conferences in the AP Polls having to play each other, I think if Xavier wins out they too could also go as high as a 2 or 3 seed. They're still my dark horse for the final four

jtom2141 · #4 01-30-2008, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjaymoose

I understand your reasoning or Louisville, but let's just say I don't have much faith in Edgar Sosa making the right decisions with the ball late in close games. And as you pointed out, the maturity issues with some of those guys (Clark and Caracter) could sabotage the whole thing before they even get to the second round.

It's strange because Sosa's shown some amazing flashes and if he does somehow conjure up that play from the second round last year, Louisville is a bona fide title contender for sure. But he hasn't even put together a half of that type of play this season. I still think Williams could be a go-to perimeter scorer for them, but he doesn't have that penetration ability of Sosa, which is so important.

But this team still seems like they are feeling each other out. It makes me think of that Georgetown team last year, where it took them half a season to figure themselves out and then the talent showed and no one could beat them. I thought Louisville played well below its potential against UConn and still nearly won a tough road game on no rest (with AJ Price playing out of his mind). And the way they beat Marquette and West Virginia was really promising, especially on defense. Plus, when you look at Louisville's personnel they don't have the glaring weaknesses of the teams I left off. I mean, this is still a top 10 preseason team.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetonHallFTW

Stanford is really interesting. They're #14 in the AP Polls and if they keep winning they'll only move up because the Pac-10 might have the strongest (if not second strongest to the Big East) RPI in America and the teams ahead of them in the polls have to play each other, Kansas/Texas, Duke/UNC, Wazzu/UCLA, Indiana/Michigan State/Wisconsin.
And we don't really expect Butler to finish the season ahead of them. I think if everything falls into place, Stanford could position themselves for as high as a 2 seed come tourney time. Then again if things go sour they could again find themselves with a double digit seed.

I think the reason why I'm pressing for Stanford to get it done now is because for Brook Lopez the pro buzz is happening and if he goes to the NBA after their year, they'll have to find a new power source for offense.

Yeah I agree. I really considered putting them on there. I just think Lopez could be an absolute monster in the tournament. He can't stay out of foul trouble for five minutes right now but he's still been dominating (and yes, he's gone after this year, and should be a top five pick). Once he gets his conditioning back and realizes how good he can be (although this is the guy who never goes to class), he could be completely unstoppable. But I'm still not sure if they have enough shot-makers from the guard position to keep teams from just packing in a zone on their bigs. If they can get that, the sky is the limit because they are an incredible rebounding team, which is huge in the tournament. And I do think they will end up with no worse than a No. 3 seed.

SetonHallFTW · #5 01-30-2008, 12:54 AM

Sorry but I completely disagree with Louisville. Edgar Sosa doesn't listen to Pitino and wants to play his own freelance style of point guard, which is why he's no longer starting. Clark loses minutes too, not sure why, maybe because of ineffectivity even though he's one of LVille's most gifted players. Palacios and Padgett are nicked up and Padgett will not be 100% at any point for the rest of his career.

I think there's far too many problems with Louisville. If they make the tournament I'd expect an early exit. You need good guard play in the tournament and a true PG is what they lack

CigarBoy · #6 01-30-2008, 10:43 AM

I would say any team in the top 15 could win it all. Now they don't all have an equal chance to win it alkl but they have a reasonable chance.

I like Memphis to win it all.

jtom2141 · #7 01-30-2008, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetonHallFTW

Sorry but I completely disagree with Louisville. Edgar Sosa doesn't listen to Pitino and wants to play his own freelance style of point guard, which is why he's no longer starting. Clark loses minutes too, not sure why, maybe because of ineffectivity even though he's one of LVille's most gifted players. Palacios and Padgett are nicked up and Padgett will not be 100% at any point for the rest of his career.

I think there's far too many problems with Louisville. If they make the tournament I'd expect an early exit. You need good guard play in the tournament and a true PG is what they lack

I mean, I can't really disagree with any of that. Although I think between Smith, Sosa, McGee and even Williams they have more than enough ballhandlers/distributors (you could argue they have too many). And even though Padgett isn't healthy, he's still found a way to be effective. But my pick was based on their personnel and how they were better equipped, in my mind, to make a title run than a number of top teams. There have been times when they have all gotten it together (including Pitino) and found out how to play with each other. But they just havent done it with consistency. I think there is enough time for all of them, specifically Clark, Caracter and Sosa, to get on the same page, in which case they are one of the better teams in the country.

Indy_BB · #8 01-30-2008, 12:19 PM

Im square with you for nearly all of your post, but IU doesn't fit the bill. IU is the type of team that gets upset in a 3-13 game, not a team that can win 6 straight on neutral floors. They are a paper tiger, propped up by a schedule of cupcakes. The remainder of the season isn't going to be kind to the Hoosiers.

I haven't seen enough of Stanford to definitively say so, but at first blush, I kind of doubt that as well.

If you are looking for one that is kind of off the beaten path, how about Clemson? Their postman can give even the best front courts fits, and they have a nice mix of veterans and young guys at the guard positions, both Stitt and Ogilvy have played really well, at times, of late.

I won't argue it, because it'll come off like a "homer" post, but Butler has the experience and players to get hot (and they lead the country in road/neutral wins)

I doubt it all matters, though, I think Kansas is going to win this year and do it rather handily. I imagine it will appear similar to the path UNC took 3 years ago.

jtom2141 · #9 01-30-2008, 01:34 PM

Well in regards to Indiana and those teams at the bottom. Those were teams I did not think could win it all. I considered Indiana but for those reasons listed decided they didn't really fit the bill.

The four that I think can win a title are Kansas, UCLA, UNC and Louisville. That's it.

Hater · #10 01-30-2008, 08:02 PM

I read very little of the article but I did see that one of your reasons for leaving Memphis off was because of shooting, yet, you have Louisville ahead of them as a contender? Have you watched Louisville shoot the basketball this year?

Louisville is currently 12th in the Big East in three point shooting percantage and 196th in the country in three point shooting. Their 34.4% 3pt shooting percentage is lower than that of Memphis who is at 35.2%. But, yet, it's a strength for Louisville and a weakness for Memphis? I am not saying Memphis is a better three point shooting team than Louisville but I am saying that you're methods are screwed up.