Nothing will rile up fans more than thinking their team is under-rated, under-respected, and under-ranked in the national polls. As the voice behind CollegeHoops.net's Top 50 Ranking, I'm well aware of how angry fans get when they feel slighted. No doubt, I occasionally slip up, and no doubt the dozens of voters in the AP poll slip up even more often.
With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we can get a good sense of the lay of the land, and we can also see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.
Throughout the season, I'll be updating the Consensus Ranking and commenting on notable trends.
What Is It?
68 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 50, C) any team in CHN Top 50, and D) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last update.
Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that move the most since the last update.
This Week's Notes
- Not surprisingly, some of the top mid-majors fell in the ranking due to their conference schedules. Long Beach in Murray State in particular dropped because of their opponents records. (On the other hand, Virginia Tech and Louisville dropped because they played poorly.)
- Three Big Ten teams made positive moves for the opposite reason the mid-majors fell. Northwestern and Illinois in particular benefited from playing good teams.
- Like last week, the WCC continues to be the most underrated league, with its big 3 being slighted.
- Of the 7 highest ranked teams that didn't receive votes, 5 are from non-BCS leagues.
- For the 2nd week in a row, San Diego St remains the most overrated team. The computers were not as impressed with SDSU's close home win over UNLV as the humans were.
- Louisville dropped 16 spots in the computer ranking, but somehow remains ranked. The Cardinals lost again this afternoon and will presumably be unranked next week.
|49||San Diego St||37||69||39||48.3||44||16|
|55||Long Beach St||54||57||51||54.0||33|
Teams the AP voters overrate vs. the computer ranking:
San Diego St +33
Mississippi St +28
Murray St +17
Teams the AP voters most underrate vs. the computer ranking:
Teams w/ votes
West Virginia -16
Wichita St -15
Seton Hall -9
St Mary's -8
Teams w/ no votes
Biggest Changes Since Last Week:
New Mexico +8
Long Beach St -22
Virginia Tech -19
Murray St -10
Northern Iowa -9