Conference Tournament Odds: High-Majors

    
March 10th, 2009

Tournament Odds: High-Major Conferences

These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. 

 

Atlantic 10 - March 11-14

Held in Atlantic City, NJ, the A-10 tournament features 12 of the league’s 14 teams, with the top four earning a bye directly to the quarterfinals.

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Xavier

100.00%

88.67%

60.89%

45.37%

2

Rhode Island

100.00%

67.75%

35.41%

11.80%

3

Dayton

100.00%

78.89%

46.64%

17.05%

4

Temple

100.00%

79.29%

32.52%

20.27%

5

Saint Joseph's

71.34%

17.42%

3.51%

1.25%

6

Richmond

68.91%

17.08%

5.64%

0.95%

7

Duquesne

59.98%

21.43%

8.29%

1.85%

8

La Salle

55.47%

6.82%

1.75%

0.53%

9

St. Louis

44.53%

4.51%

0.99%

0.26%

10

Massachusetts

40.02%

10.82%

3.27%

0.54%

11

St. Bonaventure

31.09%

4.03%

0.75%

0.06%

12

Charlotte

28.66%

3.29%

0.33%

0.06%

Xavier is the clear favorite, but Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island all have a decent shot of taking the title. The bottom 8 teams are separated by a relatively small amount, with Duquesne and Richmond looking like the best bets for surprise runs.

Colonial - March 6-9

 

The Colonial Tournament gives semifinal byes to the top 4 teams, and all games are hosted in Richmond; not in VCU’s home arena, but only a few minutes away. For that reason, I’ve decided to treat the games as semi-home games, giving a partial bonus to VCU’s chances.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Virginia Commonwealth

100.00%

94.56%

83.70%

58.63%

2

George Mason

100.00%

83.28%

52.85%

22.67%

3

Northeastern

100.00%

70.20%

33.03%

11.76%

4

Old Dominion

100.00%

65.32%

10.70%

2.94%

5

Hofstra

89.78%

34.02%

3.86%

0.74%

6

Drexel

86.17%

28.77%

9.19%

2.16%

7

James Madison

76.07%

15.00%

4.62%

0.85%

8

Georgia St.

46.20%

2.32%

0.69%

0.08%

9

Delaware

53.80%

3.12%

1.03%

0.14%

10

William & Mary

23.93%

1.72%

0.22%

0.02%

11

Towson

13.83%

1.03%

0.08%

0.00%

12

NC Wilmington

10.22%

0.66%

0.01%

0.00%

 

VCU is indeed the favorite, as we’d expect from the hosts and champions, but I was rather surprised just how good its odds are. Both GMU and Northeastern will provide tough potential challenges, while ODU are primed for an early defeat, and Drexel could be a bit of a Cinderella.

 

(Ed: As expected, VCU locked up the title Monday night)

 

 

Conference USA - March 11-14

The C-USA tournament will be held in Memphis, TN, and give the top four teams a first-round bye.

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Memphis

100.00%

98.60%

94.04%

86.69%

2

Tulsa

100.00%

89.61%

49.28%

5.70%

3

UAB

100.00%

79.65%

43.55%

5.13%

4

Texas El Paso

100.00%

46.00%

2.25%

0.75%

5

Houston

91.19%

52.96%

3.37%

1.38%

6

Central Florida

81.82%

19.19%

5.56%

0.27%

7

Marshall

60.25%

7.15%

1.13%

0.03%

8

Tulane

60.00%

0.97%

0.25%

0.04%

9

East Carolina

40.00%

0.43%

0.08%

0.01%

10

Rice

39.75%

3.24%

0.36%

0.01%

11

USM

18.18%

0.011584

0.11%

0.00%

12

SMU

8.81%

1.04%

0.01%

0.00%

As if Memphis needed more help, the tourney being in its hometown boosts its odds to the best of any team in the country. Tulsa and UAB seem to be the only teams that have a chance, but let’s face it, anyone but Memphis lifting the trophy will be the biggest shock of the month.

Horizon - March 3-10

 

The four first round winners will play between themselves to sort out who ends up as the opponents for the top two finishers, who got byes all the way to the semis, with the higher seeds hosting all games.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

Butler

100.00%

85.75%

68.21%

2

Green Bay

100.00%

56.44%

16.23%

3

Cleveland St.

82.05%

40.42%

11.42%

4

Wright St.

63.62%

10.54%

3.17%

5

Milwaukee

36.38%

3.71%

0.75%

7

Illinois Chicago

17.95%

3.14%

0.21%

 

Butler is the pretty clear favorite, and it will be tough for any team but Cleveland St. to make it through the first two rounds to the final.

 

MAAC - March 6-9

 

The MAAC tournament gives first round byes to the top two teams, with all games hosted in Siena’s home building, the Times Union Center in Albany.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Siena

100.00%

93.01%

84.81%

57.87%

2

Niagara

100.00%

88.73%

73.51%

34.06%

3

Rider

100.00%

65.54%

16.42%

3.50%

4

Manhattan

100.00%

48.97%

5.81%

1.21%

5

Fairfield

100.00%

51.03%

6.25%

1.34%

6

St. Peter's

100.00%

34.46%

5.47%

0.76%

7

Iona

72.09%

9.69%

4.23%

0.66%

8

Loyola MD

64.81%

5.35%

2.58%

0.52%

9

Canisius

35.19%

1.64%

0.55%

0.07%

10

Marist

27.91%

1.58%

0.37%

0.03%

 

A pretty clear two-horse race sees the hometown team being the favorites, and a good Siena-Niagara final looks awfully likely.

 

(Ed: As expected, Siena locked up the title Monday night)

 

 

Missouri Valley - March 5-8

 

Arch Madness features the bottom four teams battling for quarterfinals spot, and the top six getting byes.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Northern Iowa

100.00%

85.62%

66.54%

38.32%

2

Creighton

100.00%

85.61%

49.52%

27.45%

3

Illinois St.

100.00%

82.32%

43.51%

23.21%

4

Bradley

100.00%

67.10%

21.45%

7.10%

5

Southern Illinois

100.00%

32.90%

6.53%

1.31%

6

Evansville

100.00%

17.68%

3.82%

0.84%

7

Wichita St.

65.34%

11.02%

2.64%

0.60%

8

Drake

56.54%

8.91%

3.60%

0.77%

9

Indiana St.

43.46%

5.47%

1.88%

0.33%

10

Missouri St.

34.66%

3.37%

0.50%

0.07%

 

There’s not much surprise that the three teams that were at the head of the conference all season look to have the best chances at taking the auto-bid.

 

(Ed: As expected, UNI locked up the title.)

 

MWC - March 11-14

The bottom two teams meet in the opening round of the MWC Tournament, hosted on UNLV’s home court in Las Vegas.

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Brigham Young

100.00%

97.00%

66.45%

40.19%

2

Utah

100.00%

89.76%

40.59%

16.81%

3

New Mexico

100.00%

90.23%

56.55%

28.47%

4

San Diego St.

100.00%

35.87%

9.25%

3.06%

5

UNLV

100.00%

64.13%

24.10%

11.18%

6

Wyoming

100.00%

9.77%

1.77%

0.19%

7

Texas Christian

100.00%

10.24%

1.09%

0.09%

8

Colorado St.

46.01%

1.27%

0.08%

0.00%

9

Air Force

53.99%

1.73%

0.12%

0.01%

BYU is the favorite, but the winner of a potential New Mexico-Utah semifinal would also have a good chance of taking the title. UNLV’s home advantage should see it past SDSU and could propel it all the way to the auto-bid.

Southern - March 6-9

The SOCON Tournament is in Charleston, SC, and uses a divisional system, with the top 4 teams getting first round byes.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

N1

Chattanooga

100.00%

58.68%

21.71%

2.96%

S1

Davidson

100.00%

94.62%

82.67%

72.43%

N2

Western Carolina

100.00%

28.29%

2.21%

0.69%

S2

The Citadel

100.00%

72.60%

51.19%

12.12%

N3

Samford

87.80%

26.70%

13.71%

1.81%

S3

College of Charleston

91.05%

69.55%

13.24%

7.74%

N4

Appalachian St.

77.37%

4.94%

1.75%

0.61%

S4

Wofford

76.38%

36.18%

12.55%

1.58%

N5

Elon

23.62%

5.14%

0.75%

0.04%

S5

Georgia Southern

22.63%

0.44%

0.07%

0.01%

N6

NC Greensboro

8.95%

2.16%

0.06%

0.01%

S6

Furman

12.20%

0.70%

0.09%

0.00%

 

Between Davidson, Charleston and The Citadel, the South division should dominate the tournament.

 

(Ed: Chattanooga won the SoCon tournament, the only High-Major league so far in which our highest rated team didn't win.)

 

 

Sun Belt - March 4-10

 

The first round of the Sun Belt conference will be played at campus sites, with the 13-team tournament meaning three first round byes.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Western Kentucky

100.00%

90.49%

75.07%

55.40%

2

Arkansas Little Rock

100.00%

65.40%

41.27%

17.21%

3

Troy

100.00%

61.10%

27.52%

9.23%

4

North Texas

93.35%

58.60%

14.54%

6.11%

5

Middle Tennessee

71.43%

29.94%

5.46%

1.74%

6

South Alabama

90.37%

37.68%

13.99%

3.83%

7

Denver

91.25%

33.76%

16.96%

5.25%

8

Louisiana Lafayette

73.45%

7.57%

2.78%

0.70%

9

Florida International

26.55%

1.94%

0.56%

0.11%

10

Louisiana Monroe

8.75%

0.85%

0.13%

0.01%

11

New Orleans

9.63%

1.22%

0.13%

0.01%

12

Arkansas St.

28.57%

10.22%

1.52%

0.40%

13

Florida Atlantic

6.65%

1.24%

0.07%

0.01%

 

Western Kentucky look primed to return to the tournament, but after that there’s a host of teams that will challenge for the spot.

 

WAC - March 10-14

The WAC tournament features a single first round game between the #8 and #9 seeds, and will be on Nevada’s home floor in Reno.

#

Team

W

F

W

 

1

Utah St.

100.00%

89.40%

71.39%

41.57%

2

Nevada

100.00%

89.99%

74.64%

44.22%

3

Idaho

100.00%

50.12%

10.97%

2.85%

4

Boise St.

100.00%

52.31%

13.57%

4.07%

5

New Mexico St.

100.00%

47.69%

11.64%

3.30%

6

Louisiana Tech

100.00%

49.88%

10.88%

2.82%

7

San Jose St.

100.00%

10.01%

3.52%

0.59%

8

Hawaii

47.47%

4.79%

1.48%

0.25%

9

Fresno St.

52.53%

5.81%

1.92%

0.35%

Nevada’s home court advantage gives them a serious chance of causing an upset in what would otherwise be a romp for the Aggies. The 3-6 teams don’t show a lot of separation, and any could pull an upset of the top two.

WCC - March 6-9

 

The WCC is playing its tournament at a neutral site in Las Vegas for the first time, but the format, with a double-bye for the top 2 seeds and a bye for seeds 3 and 4, is the same as it has been.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Gonzaga

100.00%

100.00%

95.82%

82.70%

2

St. Mary's

100.00%

100.00%

68.22%

12.64%

3

Portland

100.00%

86.67%

30.71%

3.64%

4

Santa Clara

100.00%

67.53%

3.31%

0.85%

5

San Diego

91.55%

32.07%

0.87%

0.14%

6

Pepperdine

58.80%

8.80%

0.78%

0.02%

7

San Francisco

41.20%

4.53%

0.29%

0.01%

8

Loyola Marymount

8.45%

0.40%

0.00%

0.00%

 

With just 2 games, Gonzaga should definitely be favored, but Patty Mills’ return will definitely be worth watching.

 

(Ed: As expected, Gonzaga locked up the title Monday night)

 

Also: Mid-Major Conference Tournament Odds

Also: BCS Tournament Odds

More: Championship Week Coverage

 

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