Conference Tournament Odds: High-Majors
Tournament Odds: High-Major Conferences
These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find.
| Atlantic 10 - March 11-14 |
Held in Atlantic City, NJ, the A-10 tournament features 12 of the league’s 14 teams, with the top four earning a bye directly to the quarterfinals.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Xavier |
100.00% |
88.67% |
45.37% |
|
|
2 |
Rhode Island |
100.00% |
67.75% |
11.80% |
|
|
3 |
Dayton |
100.00% |
78.89% |
17.05% |
|
|
4 |
Temple |
100.00% |
79.29% |
20.27% |
|
|
5 |
Saint Joseph's |
71.34% |
17.42% |
1.25% |
|
|
6 |
Richmond |
68.91% |
17.08% |
0.95% |
|
|
7 |
Duquesne |
59.98% |
21.43% |
1.85% |
|
|
8 |
La Salle |
55.47% |
6.82% |
0.53% |
|
|
9 |
St. Louis |
44.53% |
4.51% |
0.26% |
|
|
10 |
Massachusetts |
40.02% |
10.82% |
0.54% |
|
|
11 |
St. Bonaventure |
31.09% |
4.03% |
0.06% |
|
|
12 |
Charlotte |
28.66% |
3.29% |
0.06% |
Xavier is the clear favorite, but Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island all have a decent shot of taking the title. The bottom 8 teams are separated by a relatively small amount, with Duquesne and Richmond looking like the best bets for surprise runs.
| Colonial - March 6-9 |
The Colonial Tournament gives semifinal byes to the top 4 teams, and all games are hosted in Richmond; not in VCU’s home arena, but only a few minutes away. For that reason, I’ve decided to treat the games as semi-home games, giving a partial bonus to VCU’s chances.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Virginia Commonwealth |
100.00% |
94.56% |
83.70% |
58.63% |
|
2 |
George Mason |
100.00% |
83.28% |
52.85% |
22.67% |
|
3 |
Northeastern |
100.00% |
70.20% |
33.03% |
11.76% |
|
4 |
Old Dominion |
100.00% |
65.32% |
10.70% |
2.94% |
|
5 |
Hofstra |
89.78% |
34.02% |
3.86% |
0.74% |
|
6 |
Drexel |
86.17% |
28.77% |
9.19% |
2.16% |
|
7 |
James Madison |
76.07% |
15.00% |
4.62% |
0.85% |
|
8 |
Georgia St. |
46.20% |
2.32% |
0.69% |
0.08% |
|
9 |
Delaware |
53.80% |
3.12% |
1.03% |
0.14% |
|
10 |
William & Mary |
23.93% |
1.72% |
0.22% |
0.02% |
|
11 |
Towson |
13.83% |
1.03% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
|
12 |
NC Wilmington |
10.22% |
0.66% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
VCU is indeed the favorite, as we’d expect from the hosts and champions, but I was rather surprised just how good its odds are. Both GMU and Northeastern will provide tough potential challenges, while ODU are primed for an early defeat, and Drexel could be a bit of a Cinderella.
(Ed: As expected, VCU locked up the title Monday night)
| Conference USA - March 11-14 |
The C-USA tournament will be held in Memphis, TN, and give the top four teams a first-round bye.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Memphis |
100.00% |
98.60% |
94.04% |
86.69% |
|
2 |
Tulsa |
100.00% |
89.61% |
49.28% |
5.70% |
|
3 |
UAB |
100.00% |
79.65% |
43.55% |
5.13% |
|
4 |
Texas El Paso |
100.00% |
46.00% |
2.25% |
0.75% |
|
5 |
Houston |
91.19% |
52.96% |
3.37% |
1.38% |
|
6 |
Central Florida |
81.82% |
19.19% |
5.56% |
0.27% |
|
7 |
Marshall |
60.25% |
7.15% |
1.13% |
0.03% |
|
8 |
Tulane |
60.00% |
0.97% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
|
9 |
East Carolina |
40.00% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
|
10 |
Rice |
39.75% |
3.24% |
0.36% |
0.01% |
|
11 |
USM |
18.18% |
0.011584 |
0.11% |
0.00% |
|
12 |
SMU |
8.81% |
1.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
As if Memphis needed more help, the tourney being in its hometown boosts its odds to the best of any team in the country. Tulsa and UAB seem to be the only teams that have a chance, but let’s face it, anyone but Memphis lifting the trophy will be the biggest shock of the month.
| Horizon - March 3-10 |
The four first round winners will play between themselves to sort out who ends up as the opponents for the top two finishers, who got byes all the way to the semis, with the higher seeds hosting all games.
|
# |
Team |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Butler |
100.00% |
85.75% |
68.21% |
|
2 |
Green Bay |
100.00% |
56.44% |
16.23% |
|
3 |
Cleveland St. |
82.05% |
40.42% |
11.42% |
|
4 |
Wright St. |
63.62% |
10.54% |
3.17% |
|
5 |
Milwaukee |
36.38% |
3.71% |
0.75% |
|
7 |
Illinois Chicago |
17.95% |
3.14% |
0.21% |
Butler is the pretty clear favorite, and it will be tough for any team but Cleveland St. to make it through the first two rounds to the final.
| MAAC - March 6-9 |
The MAAC tournament gives first round byes to the top two teams, with all games hosted in Siena’s home building, the Times Union Center in Albany.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Siena |
100.00% |
93.01% |
84.81% |
57.87% |
|
2 |
Niagara |
100.00% |
88.73% |
73.51% |
34.06% |
|
3 |
Rider |
100.00% |
65.54% |
16.42% |
3.50% |
|
4 |
Manhattan |
100.00% |
48.97% |
5.81% |
1.21% |
|
5 |
Fairfield |
100.00% |
51.03% |
6.25% |
1.34% |
|
6 |
St. Peter's |
100.00% |
34.46% |
5.47% |
0.76% |
|
7 |
Iona |
72.09% |
9.69% |
4.23% |
0.66% |
|
8 |
Loyola MD |
64.81% |
5.35% |
2.58% |
0.52% |
|
9 |
Canisius |
35.19% |
1.64% |
0.55% |
0.07% |
|
10 |
Marist |
27.91% |
1.58% |
0.37% |
0.03% |
A pretty clear two-horse race sees the hometown team being the favorites, and a good Siena-Niagara final looks awfully likely.
(Ed: As expected, Siena locked up the title Monday night)
| Missouri Valley - March 5-8 |
Arch Madness features the bottom four teams battling for quarterfinals spot, and the top six getting byes.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Northern Iowa |
100.00% |
85.62% |
66.54% |
38.32% |
|
2 |
Creighton |
100.00% |
85.61% |
49.52% |
27.45% |
|
3 |
Illinois St. |
100.00% |
82.32% |
43.51% |
23.21% |
|
4 |
Bradley |
100.00% |
67.10% |
21.45% |
7.10% |
|
5 |
Southern Illinois |
100.00% |
32.90% |
6.53% |
1.31% |
|
6 |
Evansville |
100.00% |
17.68% |
3.82% |
0.84% |
|
7 |
Wichita St. |
65.34% |
11.02% |
2.64% |
0.60% |
|
8 |
Drake |
56.54% |
8.91% |
3.60% |
0.77% |
|
9 |
Indiana St. |
43.46% |
5.47% |
1.88% |
0.33% |
|
10 |
Missouri St. |
34.66% |
3.37% |
0.50% |
0.07% |
There’s not much surprise that the three teams that were at the head of the conference all season look to have the best chances at taking the auto-bid.
(Ed: As expected, UNI locked up the title.)
| MWC - March 11-14 |
The bottom two teams meet in the opening round of the MWC Tournament, hosted on UNLV’s home court in Las Vegas.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Brigham Young |
100.00% |
97.00% |
66.45% |
40.19% |
|
2 |
Utah |
100.00% |
89.76% |
40.59% |
16.81% |
|
3 |
New Mexico |
100.00% |
90.23% |
56.55% |
28.47% |
|
4 |
San Diego St. |
100.00% |
35.87% |
9.25% |
3.06% |
|
5 |
UNLV |
100.00% |
64.13% |
24.10% |
11.18% |
|
6 |
Wyoming |
100.00% |
9.77% |
1.77% |
0.19% |
|
7 |
Texas Christian |
100.00% |
10.24% |
1.09% |
0.09% |
|
8 |
Colorado St. |
46.01% |
1.27% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
|
9 |
Air Force |
53.99% |
1.73% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
BYU is the favorite, but the winner of a potential New Mexico-Utah semifinal would also have a good chance of taking the title. UNLV’s home advantage should see it past SDSU and could propel it all the way to the auto-bid.
| Southern - March 6-9 |
The SOCON Tournament is in Charleston, SC, and uses a divisional system, with the top 4 teams getting first round byes.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
N1 |
Chattanooga |
100.00% |
58.68% |
21.71% |
2.96% |
|
S1 |
Davidson |
100.00% |
94.62% |
82.67% |
72.43% |
|
N2 |
Western Carolina |
100.00% |
28.29% |
2.21% |
0.69% |
|
S2 |
The Citadel |
100.00% |
72.60% |
51.19% |
12.12% |
|
N3 |
Samford |
87.80% |
26.70% |
13.71% |
1.81% |
|
S3 |
College of Charleston |
91.05% |
69.55% |
13.24% |
7.74% |
|
N4 |
Appalachian St. |
77.37% |
4.94% |
1.75% |
0.61% |
|
S4 |
Wofford |
76.38% |
36.18% |
12.55% |
1.58% |
|
N5 |
Elon |
23.62% |
5.14% |
0.75% |
0.04% |
|
S5 |
Georgia Southern |
22.63% |
0.44% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
|
N6 |
NC Greensboro |
8.95% |
2.16% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
|
S6 |
Furman |
12.20% |
0.70% |
0.09% |
0.00% |
Between Davidson, Charleston and The Citadel, the South division should dominate the tournament.
(Ed: Chattanooga won the SoCon tournament, the only High-Major league so far in which our highest rated team didn't win.)
| Sun Belt - March 4-10 |
The first round of the Sun Belt conference will be played at campus sites, with the 13-team tournament meaning three first round byes.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Western Kentucky |
100.00% |
90.49% |
75.07% |
55.40% |
|
2 |
Arkansas Little Rock |
100.00% |
65.40% |
41.27% |
17.21% |
|
3 |
Troy |
100.00% |
61.10% |
27.52% |
9.23% |
|
4 |
North Texas |
93.35% |
58.60% |
14.54% |
6.11% |
|
5 |
Middle Tennessee |
71.43% |
29.94% |
5.46% |
1.74% |
|
6 |
South Alabama |
90.37% |
37.68% |
13.99% |
3.83% |
|
7 |
Denver |
91.25% |
33.76% |
16.96% |
5.25% |
|
8 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
73.45% |
7.57% |
2.78% |
0.70% |
|
9 |
Florida International |
26.55% |
1.94% |
0.56% |
0.11% |
|
10 |
Louisiana Monroe |
8.75% |
0.85% |
0.13% |
0.01% |
|
11 |
New Orleans |
9.63% |
1.22% |
0.13% |
0.01% |
|
12 |
Arkansas St. |
28.57% |
10.22% |
1.52% |
0.40% |
|
13 |
Florida Atlantic |
6.65% |
1.24% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
Western Kentucky look primed to return to the tournament, but after that there’s a host of teams that will challenge for the spot.
| WAC - March 10-14 |
The WAC tournament features a single first round game between the #8 and #9 seeds, and will be on Nevada’s home floor in Reno.
|
# |
Team |
W |
F |
W |
|
|
1 |
Utah St. |
100.00% |
89.40% |
71.39% |
41.57% |
|
2 |
Nevada |
100.00% |
89.99% |
74.64% |
44.22% |
|
3 |
Idaho |
100.00% |
50.12% |
10.97% |
2.85% |
|
4 |
Boise St. |
100.00% |
52.31% |
13.57% |
4.07% |
|
5 |
New Mexico St. |
100.00% |
47.69% |
11.64% |
3.30% |
|
6 |
Louisiana Tech |
100.00% |
49.88% |
10.88% |
2.82% |
|
7 |
San Jose St. |
100.00% |
10.01% |
3.52% |
0.59% |
|
8 |
Hawaii |
47.47% |
4.79% |
1.48% |
0.25% |
|
9 |
Fresno St. |
52.53% |
5.81% |
1.92% |
0.35% |
Nevada’s home court advantage gives them a serious chance of causing an upset in what would otherwise be a romp for the Aggies. The 3-6 teams don’t show a lot of separation, and any could pull an upset of the top two.
| WCC - March 6-9 |
The WCC is playing its tournament at a neutral site in Las Vegas for the first time, but the format, with a double-bye for the top 2 seeds and a bye for seeds 3 and 4, is the same as it has been.
|
# |
Team |
QF |
SF |
F |
W |
|
1 |
Gonzaga |
100.00% |
100.00% |
95.82% |
82.70% |
|
2 |
St. Mary's |
100.00% |
100.00% |
68.22% |
12.64% |
|
3 |
Portland |
100.00% |
86.67% |
30.71% |
3.64% |
|
4 |
Santa Clara |
100.00% |
67.53% |
3.31% |
0.85% |
|
5 |
San Diego |
91.55% |
32.07% |
0.87% |
0.14% |
|
6 |
Pepperdine |
58.80% |
8.80% |
0.78% |
0.02% |
|
7 |
San Francisco |
41.20% |
4.53% |
0.29% |
0.01% |
|
8 |
Loyola Marymount |
8.45% |
0.40% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
With just 2 games, Gonzaga should definitely be favored, but Patty Mills’ return will definitely be worth watching.
(Ed: As expected, Gonzaga locked up the title Monday night)
Also: Mid-Major Conference Tournament Odds
Also: BCS Tournament Odds
More: Championship Week Coverage
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
- Login to post comments
More CHN Articles
SPONSORS
About Evan Dorey
Columnist
Evan Dorey - Game Previews
Contact
evan.dorey@gmail.com
Background
A recent university graduate from Markham, Ontario, who loves analyzing the statistics of sports in general, and college basketball in particular.