Conference Tournament Odds: Mid-Majors

    
March 10th, 2009 by Evan Dorey
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Tournament Odds: Mid-Major Conferences

These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. 

 

- more odds coming soon!

 

America East - March 6-14

 

The first three rounds will be played in Albany’s home court, SECFU Arena, with the final happening on Saturday morning at the higher remaining seed.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Binghamton

100.00%

85.45%

53.64%

26.52%

2

Vermont

100.00%

87.92%

62.85%

45.92%

3

Boston University

100.00%

86.45%

32.33%

18.97%

4

New Hampshire

100.00%

28.09%

7.94%

0.82%

5

Stony Brook

100.00%

71.91%

34.71%

6.86%

6

UMBC

100.00%

13.55%

1.39%

0.19%

7

Albany

100.00%

12.08%

3.43%

0.47%

8

Maine

75.37%

12.98%

3.54%

0.24%

9

Hartford

24.63%

1.57%

0.18%

0.00%

 

Hometown team Albany got the worst possible opening draw, as the favorite, #2 Vermont will be a tough task. Binghamton and BU should be the main challengers, with Stony Brook a team from outside the top 4 that could cause a big surprise.

 

Atlantic Sun - March 4-7

 

With only seven eligible teams, champions Jacksonville get an opening round bye, while the bottom 6 teams play for the other semifinal spots. All games are held at the Allen Center, home to #4 Lipscomb.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

Jacksonville

100.00%

54.37%

35.75%

2

East Tennessee St.

84.10%

52.47%

20.87%

3

Belmont

76.41%

37.58%

12.64%

4

Lipscomb

84.83%

43.25%

28.80%

5

Campbell

15.17%

2.38%

0.66%

6

Mercer

23.59%

5.87%

0.81%

7

Stetson

15.90%

4.07%

0.46%

 

Jacksonville’s first round bye doesn’t help them a whole lot, while Lipscomb’s home court advantage will give them a serious shot of breaking through to steal the bid.

 

(Ed: ETSU ended up winning, one of the few upset conference champions so far.)

 

Big Sky - March 7-11

 

The Big Sky Tournament features just 6 of the conference’s 9 teams, with the top two teams getting automatic semifinal byes. The first round games are played at campus sites, while Weber St. hosts the semis and final at the Dee Events Center.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

Weber St.

100.00%

87.17%

73.11%

2

Portland St.

100.00%

58.13%

13.29%

3

Montana

94.12%

41.37%

7.97%

4

Idaho St.

70.40%

9.54%

4.30%

5

Northern Colorado

29.60%

3.30%

1.31%

6

Montana St.

5.88%

0.50%

0.02%

 

Weber would have been favorites at a neutral site. At home, they should be able to win the two games they’ll need.

 

Big South - March 3-7

 

The semis and finals will be hosted at regular season champs Radford.

 

#

Team

F

W

1

Radford

86.18%

69.39%

2

Virginia Military Inst

47.51%

12.44%

3

Liberty

52.49%

14.59%

4

NC Asheville

13.82%

3.58%

 

Radford’s home advantage should see them through, but the Liberty-VMI winner will give the Highlanders a tough fight

 

(Ed: As expected, Radford locked up the title.)

 

Big West - March 11-14

 

Hosted in Anaheim, the Big West conference tournament uses a bizarre style, which I don’t faithfully reproduce here, as they have a two-team double-level bye, just like the WCC, but also re-seeded at each level. These odds reflect the tournament without reseeding, so they somewhat hurt the top teams, but still give a basic idea of the overall picture.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

CS Northridge

100.00%

100.00%

59.70%

32.34%

2

Long Beach St.

100.00%

100.00%

58.41%

30.28%

3

Pacific

100.00%

73.63%

35.02%

17.31%

4

UC Santa Barbara

100.00%

60.42%

26.20%

12.48%

5

UC Irvine

71.81%

32.63%

12.71%

5.48%

6

UC Riverside

58.88%

17.18%

4.67%

1.35%

7

Cal St. Fullerton

41.12%

9.19%

1.90%

0.42%

8

UC Davis

28.19%

6.95%

1.39%

0.32%

 

The top two seeds get a huge boost by avoiding the opening two rounds, and look the likeliest to advance to the NCAA tournament. The two teams with single byes also have decent chances.

 

MAC - March 10-14

 

The MAC Tournament, held in Cleveland, gives four first round byes, and is mostly notable for the fact that the two division champs get the top two seeds, which elevates a below-.500 Ball St. team out of the first round up to #2.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Bowling Green

100.00%

57.17%

18.32%

7.90%

2

Ball St.

100.00%

52.39%

13.83%

3.75%

3

Buffalo

100.00%

43.91%

30.38%

13.72%

4

Miami OH

100.00%

43.91%

29.09%

16.40%

5

Akron

94.36%

55.65%

41.06%

26.52%

6

Kent St.

90.15%

54.67%

42.38%

23.49%

7

Central Michigan

77.03%

41.65%

12.33%

3.74%

8

Western Michigan

39.43%

14.41%

3.09%

0.96%

9

Ohio

60.57%

28.42%

8.37%

3.38%

10

Eastern Michigan

22.97%

5.97%

0.68%

0.08%

11

Northern Illinois

9.85%

1.42%

0.40%

0.05%

12

Toledo

5.64%

0.45%

0.07%

0.01%

 

This conference is simply insane. The top two favorites don’t even get a bye, and Akron fans in particular must be steamed at the division winners rule. There look to be five teams that can potentially win the tournament, all from the East division, and no matter who gets it in the end, the MAC will retain its reputation for eating its own. Don’t be too surprised if you see the #5 or #6 seed make a long run in Cleveland.

 

MEAC- March 9-14

 

The MEAC Tournament features the 11 eligible teams meeting in Winston Salem, with the bottom six playing for spots in the quarterfinals.

 

#

Team

QF

SF

F

W

1

Morgan St.

100.00%

95.15%

83.06%

69.88%

2

South Carolina St.

100.00%

67.26%

36.98%

9.43%

3

Norfolk St.

100.00%

61.85%

33.51%

8.22%

4

NC A&T

100.00%

50.79%

8.05%

3.58%

5

Coppin St.

100.00%

49.21%

7.62%

3.33%

6

Bethune Cookman

90.11%

37.43%

17.18%

3.35%

7

Hampton

48.95%

15.79%

5.84%

0.90%

8

Florida A&M

41.68%

1.66%

0.37%

0.07%

9

Howard

58.32%

3.19%

0.91%

0.22%

10

Delaware St.

51.05%

16.95%

6.43%

1.02%

11

MD Eastern Shore

9.89%

0.72%

0.06%

0.00%

 

Morgan St. is a dominant favorite, but after that, its truly a free-for-all. Delaware St. is a fascinating potential long-shot, should it survive its first round game.

 

Northeast - March 5-11

 

The NEC Tournament has all game played at the higher seed with 8 of the 11 teams making the quarters.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

Robert Morris

94.76%

82.61%

64.72%

2

Mount St. Mary's

91.99%

66.85%

22.16%

3

Sacred Heart

91.38%

31.18%

9.09%

4

Long Island

72.84%

12.75%

3.11%

5

Quinnipiac

27.16%

3.76%

0.71%

6

Central Connecticut

8.62%

0.98%

0.06%

7

Wagner

8.01%

0.99%

0.07%

8

St. Francis NY

5.24%

0.88%

0.09%

 

Robert Morris has separated itself from the rest of the conference all season, and with it hosting every game it plays, it should be on course for the NCAA bid.

 

Ohio Valley - March 3-7

 

With the semifinals set, all games will be played in Nashville from now on in the tournament.

 

#

Team

F

W

1

Tennessee Martin

62.54%

31.86%

2

Austin Peay

28.48%

10.72%

3

Murray St.

71.52%

42.86%

4

Morehead St.

37.46%

14.56%

 

Murray and Martin are both favored to make the final, where a battle between the two would be a lot of fun.

 

(Ed: Like ETSU above, Morehead St managed to defy the odds.)

 

Patriot League - March 4-13

 

All games in the Patriot League tournament are at the higher seed’s arena.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

American

99.07%

97.22%

86.03%

2

Holy Cross

93.81%

80.21%

12.37%

3

Navy

85.31%

17.26%

1.28%

4

Army

66.79%

1.75%

0.16%

5

Lehigh

33.21%

0.83%

0.08%

6

Colgate

14.69%

1.39%

0.04%

7

Bucknell

6.19%

1.14%

0.03%

8

Lafayette

0.93%

0.19%

0.01%

 

American has had an excellent season, and should head back to the NCAA tournament, especially with all its games at home.

 

Southland - March 12-15

 

Eight of the league’s 12 teams meet in Katy, TX to decide the Southland title.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

Stephen F. Austin

70.74%

46.69%

28.36%

2

Nicholls St.

80.97%

40.99%

19.77%

3

Sam Houston St.

76.46%

46.90%

25.31%

4

Texas A&M Corpus Christi

63.42%

28.37%

14.03%

5

Texas Arlington

36.58%

11.81%

4.32%

6

Texas San Antonio

23.54%

8.15%

2.23%

7

Texas St.

19.03%

3.96%

0.74%

8

Southeastern Louisiana

29.26%

13.13%

5.23%

 

Prepare for good four-way battle between the top seeds, with the #8 Southeastern Louisiana potentially poised to bust some brackets.

 

Summit League - March 7-10

 

The Summit League Tournament is a pretty simple 8-team affair, with all games in Sioux Falls, SD.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

North Dakota St.

92.48%

83.64%

52.90%

2

Oral Roberts

88.37%

61.87%

31.48%

3

Oakland

81.52%

32.35%

12.02%

4

IUPUI

54.58%

7.58%

1.39%

5

Southern Utah

45.42%

5.50%

0.87%

6

IUPU Fort Wayne

18.48%

2.75%

0.41%

7

South Dakota St.

11.63%

3.04%

0.48%

8

Centenary

7.52%

3.28%

0.46%

 

North Dakota St. will be a team to watch for an upset in the NCAA tournament, but only if they can get by tough challenges from the winner of an ORU-Oakland semifinal.

 

SWAC - March 11-14

 

Eight teams meet in Birmingham to determine the SWAC automatic bid.

 

#

Team

SF

F

W

1

Alabama St.

94.70%

81.39%

63.36%

2

Jackson St.

84.03%

57.22%

20.15%

3

Prairie View A&M

72.56%

31.36%

8.01%

4

Arkansas Pine Bluff

70.73%

14.11%

6.07%

5

Southern

29.27%

3.05%

0.75%

6

MVSU

27.44%

6.57%

0.84%

7

Texas Southern

15.97%

4.84%

0.55%

8

Alabama A&M

5.30%

1.44%

0.27%

 

Alabama St. is a big favorite, with only the top four looking to have any kind of shot, and the top two in particular dominant favorites to meet in the title game.

 

Also: BCS Tournament Odds

Also: High-Major Tournament Odds

More: Championship Week Coverage

 

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