Nothing riles up fans more than thinking their team is under-rated, under-respected, and under-ranked in the national polls. As the voice behind CollegeHoops.net's Top 50 Ranking, I'm well aware of how angry fans get when they feel slighted. No doubt, I occasionally slip up, and no doubt the dozens of voters in the AP poll slip up even more often.
With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.
Throughout the season, I'll be updating the Consensus Ranking and commenting on notable trends.
What Is It?
68 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 50, C) any team in CHN Top 50, and D) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.
Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.
This Week's Notes
- Despite being #1 in the Polls, Kentucky is neither #1 in any individual computer ranking or the composite ranking.
- The top 5 teams are extremely tight. Syracuse & Ohio St had been a clear 1-2 for a few weeks, but now the top spot is up for grabs.
- Wins over UNC & Duke have catapulted Florida St from outside of the Top 50, up to 16th. They've had the biggest positive move each of the last two weeks.
- In general, the human voters are much closer to the computer polls than they have been at any time this year. The swings between the most overrated and underrated teams are not quite as high. For example, the human voters have slowly began to realize what the computers suggested, that Louisville is not good. Or on the flip side, a team like San Diego St has begun playing up to the voters lofty expectations.
- Interesting that 3 of the teams fading the most are Big Ten teams. Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue have each lost 2 games in a row and gotten hammered by the computers. The quality Big Ten schedule can make or break a team.
- Cincinnati, Illinois, and Iona got AP Top 25 votes despite not being in the Top 40 in any individual computer ranking. Murray St and Mississippi St are in the AP Top 20 despite not being in the Top 30 of any individual computer ranking.
- St Louis seems to be completely under the radar despite getting love from all 3 computer rankings. Perhaps that will change in next Monday's poll.
|33||San Diego St||19||43||38||33.3||49||44||13|
|37||Long Beach St||38||34||36||36.0||55||33||37|
Teams the AP voters overrate vs. the computer ranking:
Mississippi St +26
Murray St +24
San Diego St +20
Seton Hall +11
Teams the AP voters most underrate vs. the computer ranking:
Teams w/ votes
Wichita St -16
Florida St -5
Michigan St -5
Teams w/ no votes
Biggest Changes Since Last Week:
Florida St +20
Long Beach St +18
San Diego St +16
St Louis +13
Seton Hall -20
Northern Iowa -18