Consensus Computer Ranking: SLU & Cal Underrated

    
January 26th, 2012

Consensus Ranking

Nothing riles up fans more than thinking their team is under-rated, under-respected, and under-ranked in the national polls. As the voice behind CollegeHoops.net's Top 50 Ranking, I'm well aware of how angry fans get when they feel slighted. No doubt, I occasionally slip up, and no doubt the dozens of voters in the AP poll slip up even more often.

 

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

Throughout the season, I'll be updating the Consensus Ranking and commenting on notable trends.

 

What Is It?

68 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 50, C) any team in CHN Top 50, and D) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

 

This Week's Notes

- Despite being #1 in the Polls, Kentucky is neither #1 in any individual computer ranking or the composite ranking.

 

- The top 5 teams are extremely tight. Syracuse & Ohio St had been a clear 1-2 for a few weeks, but now the top spot is up for grabs.

 

- Wins over UNC & Duke have catapulted Florida St from outside of the Top 50, up to 16th. They've had the biggest positive move each of the last two weeks.

 

- In general, the human voters are much closer to the computer polls than they have been at any time this year. The swings between the most overrated and underrated teams are not quite as high. For example, the human voters have slowly began to realize what the computers suggested, that Louisville is not good. Or on the flip side, a team like San Diego St has begun playing up to the voters lofty expectations.

 

- Interesting that 3 of the teams fading the most are Big Ten teams. Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue have each lost 2 games in a row and gotten hammered by the computers. The quality Big Ten schedule can make or break a team.

 

- Cincinnati, Illinois, and Iona got AP Top 25 votes despite not being in the Top 40 in any individual computer ranking. Murray St and Mississippi St are in the AP Top 20 despite not being in the Top 30 of any individual computer ranking.

 

- St Louis seems to be completely under the radar despite getting love from all 3 computer rankings. Perhaps that will change in next Monday's poll.

 

Rank Team RPI KenPom Sagarin Avg Last 2 Weeks AP
1t Kansas 7 2 2 3.7 7 9 5
1t Ohio St 9 1 1 3.7 2 3 4
1t Syracuse 1 6 4 3.7 1 1 3
4t Kentucky 5 5 3 4.3 4 2 1
4t Michigan St 4 4 5 4.3 6 4 10
6 Baylor 3 9 9 7.0 3 7 6
7 UNC 8 8 7 7.7 11 8 7
8 Missouri 11 7 6 8.0 8 13 2
9 Duke 2 14 10 8.7 5 6 8
10 UNLV 6 18 12 12.0 12 11 12
11 Wisconsin 27 3 8 12.7 18 26 25
12 Georgetown 12 15 14 13.7 10 10 9
13 Indiana 21 11 11 14.3 9 5 16
14 Marquette 10 20 15 15.0 15 16 17
15 Wichita St 24 10 13 15.7 21 23 31
16 Florida 25 12 17 18.0 30 34 14
17 Creighton 13 27 16 18.7 22 27 15
18 Florida St 23 19 20 20.7 38 new 23
19 Kansas St 28 17 18 21.0 23 15 22
20 Gonzaga 16 29 27 24.0 14 14 27
21 Saint Louis 41 13 19 24.3 34 32  
22t California 33 21 23 25.7 24 22  
22t St. Mary's 30 26 21 25.7 16 20 21
22t West Virginia 17 32 28 25.7 17 18 26
25 Memphis 29 25 26 26.7 26 29  
26 Alabama 36 23 25 28.0 13 12  
27 Virginia 49 16 22 29.0 25 30 19
28 New Mexico 45 22 24 30.3 32 40 30
29t Michigan   22 35 35 30.7 31 24 20
29t UCONN 18 37 37 30.7 20 25 24
31 Vanderbilt 32 28 34 31.3 36 42 28
32 Temple 15 41 40 32.0 40 43  
33 San Diego St 19 43 38 33.3 49 44 13
34 BYU 43 30 29 34.0 28 28  
35 Murray St 31 40 33 34.7 29 19 11
36 Louisville 37 39 31 35.7 37 21 29
37 Long Beach St 38 34 36 36.0 55 33 37
38 Southern Miss 14 50 47 37.0 39 38  
39 Seton Hall 20 49 44 37.7 19 17 28
40 MTSU 51 31 32 38.0 50 57 34
41t Harvard 44 36 41 40.3 41 45 30
41t Texas 67 24 30 40.3 42 46  
43 Illinois 40 42 42 41.3 27 35 33
44 Mississippi St 35 57 46 46.0 46 52 18
45 Minnesota 46 48 45 46.3 43 new  
46t Dayton 34 56 53 47.7 45 36 35
46t Purdue 66 38 39 47.7 33 31  
48 Iowa St 60 44 48 50.7 51 50  
49 Xavier 50 54 55 53.0 47 58  
50 Northwestern 39 69 62 56.7 35 47  
51 Iona 52 62 57 57.0 44 37 36
52 Davidson 47 67 59 57.7 57 55  
53 Oral Roberts 48 70 56 58.0 52 48  
54 Arizona 71 52 54 59.0 58 51  
55 Virginia Tech 77 50 52 59.7 60 41  
56 Northern Iowa 53 66 64 61.0 48 39  
57 St. Joseph's 55 65 65 61.7 56 54  
58 Cincinnati 95 46 49 63.3 62 64 32
59 Stanford 82 59 50 63.7 53 49  
60 Cleveland St 59 74 66 66.3 66 62  
61 Arkansas 56 82 76 71.3 64 63  
62 Ohio   70 77 68 71.7 63 60  
63 Marshall 65 88 77 76.7 54 53  
64 UCF 64 91 89 81.3 67 66  
65 Colorado St 26 117 103 82.0 59 59  
66 Ole Miss 42 111 94 82.3 68 65  
67 Denver 76 92 83 83.7 61 56  
68 Wagner 87 90 84 87.0 65 61  

 

Teams the AP voters overrate vs. the computer ranking:

Cincinnati +26

Mississippi St +26

Murray St +24

San Diego St +20

Iona +15

Dayton +11

Seton Hall +11

Harvard +11

Illinois +10

Michigan +9

Virginia +8

Louisville +7

 

Teams the AP voters most underrate vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Wichita St -16

Wisconsin -14

Gonzaga -7

Florida St -5

Michigan St -5

 

Teams w/ no votes

Saint Louis

California

Memphis

Alabama

Temple

 

Biggest Changes Since Last Week:

Rising

Florida St +20

Long Beach St +18

San Diego St +16

Florida +14

St Louis +13

MTSU +10

Falling

Seton Hall -20

Northern Iowa -18

Stanford -16

Illinois -16

Northwestern -15

Purdue -14

 

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