Consensus Ranking: Alabama, Memphis Underrated

Despite falling to 10th in the AP poll, Ohio St remains strong in the Consensus Ranking (CR). The computers were nonplussed by the Buckeyes loss to Wisconsin. Similarly, Missouri only fell two spots despite a pair of losses. The biggest losers this week were actually La Salle, West Virginia, and Marshall.

 

On the positive side, Dayton, Memphis, and Purdue made the strongest moves. Interesting that although the computers respected those teams, it was the likes of Iowa St, Drexel, and VCU that the AP voters hyped up.

 

Making their debut in the CR is South Dakota St and Tennessee. South Dakota St moved into the RPI top 60 and comes in at a very respectable 57th, ahead of many teams getting bubble love. SD St is also 9 spots ahead of Oral Roberts, despite trailing in the Summit standings. Tennessee comes in at a less respectable 75th, the lowest rank of any team getting bubble love.

 

Also of note, Wichita St moves into the top 10 for the first time. The Shockers are consistently respected across the board, though the AP voters have been slower to jump on the bandwagon. Lastly, Saint Louis is the highest CR team without a single AP vote. The Billikens lost at Rhode Island, which the computers were not as concerned about.

 

What Is It?

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

82 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

 

Rank	Team	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	Avg	Last	2 Weeks	AP
1	Kentucky	3	1	1	1.7	1	2t	1
2	Michigan St	4	3	3	3.3	2t	4	5
3	Ohio St	7	2	2	3.7	4	1	10
4	Syracuse	1	6	5	4.0	2t	2t	2
5	Kansas	6	4	4	4.7	5	5	3
6	UNC	5	7	6	6.0	6	6t	6
7	Duke	2	10	9	7.0	8	9	4
8	Wichita St	10	8	10	9.3	14	18	15
9	Missouri	16	9	7	10.7	7	8	7
10	Marquette	8	16	13	12.3	11	15	8
11t	Georgetown	12	13	14	13.0	9t	11	11
11t	Baylor	9	18	12	13.0	12	6t	9
13t	Wisconsin	27	5	8	13.3	9t	13t	14
13t	Indiana	18	11	11	13.3	13	10	18
15	Florida	19	17	15	17.0	15	12	16
15t	Memphis	21	14	16	17.0	23	23	36
17	UNLV	11	30	20	20.3	19t	13t	17
18	Michigan	13	25	24	20.7	18	22	13
19	Saint Louis	34	12	18	21.3	16	19
20	New Mexico	33	15	17	21.7	17	21	29
21	Louisville	20	27	19	22.0	21	24	19
22t	Vanderbilt	22	20	26	22.7	24	31	31
22t	Alabama	24	21	23	22.7	29	26	40
24	Virginia	38	19	22	26.3	27	25	24
25	Gonzaga	17	33	31	27.0	26	27t	26
26	Florida St	25	29	28	27.3	19t	16	22
27	Temple	15	34	34	27.7	25	34	23
28	California	36	24	25	28.3	22	32t	37t
29	Kansas St	45	23	21	29.7	31t	32t	39t
30	Creighton	23	39	30	30.7	28	17	25
31	Iowa St	31	31	33	31.7	35t	35t	27
32	Purdue	40	28	29	32.3	40	44t	37t
33	UCONN	30	36	38	34.7	33	29
34	Texas	55	26	27	36.0	31t	37t
35	St. Mary's	32	41	36	36.3	39	20	28
36	Notre Dame	42	32	37	37.0	38	50	20
37	Harvard	37	35	40	37.3	30	37t	35
38	Belmont	59	22	32	37.7	44	x
39	Long Beach St	35	42	41	39.3	41	39	33
40	Murray St	29	48	43	40.0	46	47	12
41	BYU	49	38	35	40.7	35t	35t	34
42t	Seton Hall	44	43	44	43.7	42	49
42t	Southern Miss	14	66	51	43.7	37	30	39t
44	Miami	48	40	45	44.3	45	46
45	West Virginia	50	45	39	44.7	34	27t
46	San Diego St	28	60	49	45.7	48	41	21
47	Iona	41	49	48	46.0	49	51
48	MTSU	47	50	47	48.0	43	40
49	Northwestern	43	56	53	50.7	47	54
50	Cincinnati	77	37	42	52.0	52	59
51t	Arizona	67	44	46	52.3	50	44t
51t	VCU	60	47	50	52.3	57	x	32
53	Xavier	54	53	56	54.3	53t	53
54	St. Joseph's	51	64	58	57.7	51	55
55	South Dakota St	56	57	62	58.3	x	x
56	Washington	52	68	59	59.7	58	60
57	Dayton	61	59	60	60.0	75	69
58	Drexel	74	46	61	60.3	64	x	30
59	NC State	71	58	54	61.0	53t	x
60	Illinois	72	63	52	62.3	59	42
61	Davidson	65	62	64	63.7	68	62t
62	South Florida	46	69	77	64.0	62	x
63	Oregon	53	72	68	64.3	61	x
64t	Minnesota	82	61	55	66.0	55	43
64t	Oral Roberts	39	89	70	66.0	65	57
66	Colorado St	26	88	91	68.3	69	65
67t	Akron	58	78	72	69.3	60	56
67t	Mississippi St	64	81	63	69.3	66	48
69	La Salle	89	55	65	69.7	56	x
70	Stanford	106	54	57	72.3	71	62t
71	Northern Iowa	63	82	75	73.3	67	58
72	Ohio	78	74	73	75.0	78	68
73	Marshall	62	84	81	75.7	63	64
74	Cleveland St	75	76	78	76.3	73	52
75	Tennessee	92	65	76	77.7	x	x
76	UCF	66	80	89	78.3	70	71
77	Denver	91	73	80	81.3	74	72
78	Virginia Tech	104	77	66	82.3	77	66
79	Nevada	57	105	101	87.7	76	x
80	Ole Miss	69	103	98	90.0	79	70
81	Wagner	80	104	93	92.3	72	67
82	Arkansas	84	111	97	97.3	80	61

 

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +28 Murray St +28 San Diego St +25 VCU +19 Notre Dame +16

BYU +7 Saint Mary's +7 LBSU +6

 

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes Memphis -21 Alabama -18 Kansas St -10 California -9 New Mexico -9 Vanderbilt -9

Teams w/ no votes Saint Louis UCONN Texas Belmont Seton Hall

 

Biggest Changes In Last Week:

Rising Dayton +18 Memphis +8 Purdue +8 Alabama +7 Davidson +7

Falling La Salle -13 West Virginia -11 Marshall -10 Minnesota -9 Akron/Harvard -7

 

Biggest Changes In Last Two Weeks:

Rising Notre Dame +14 Purdue +12 Dayton +12 Vanderbilt +9 Wichita St +9

Falling Arkansas -21 Minnesota -21 Mississippi St -19 Illinois -18 West Virginia -18

 

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