Consensus Ranking: Michigan St Tied For 2nd

    
February 20th, 2012
After missing last week's Consensus Ranking due to extensive travel, this week's list grows to include 7 new teams, the highest of which is #44 Belmont.

 

At the top of the ranking, Kentucky takes over #1, edging Syracuse who has slumped in the Sagarin & KenPom ratings (due to close wins).

 

Wichita St sits at 14th in the CR. The Shockers have been in the Consensus Top 20 for over a month, while the AP voters have been slow to recognize how good they are. Saint Louis, 16th in the CR, is not getting the AP love either. The Bills are the most underrated team according to the computers. Other underrated teams include Cal and Memphis.

 

On the overrated side, we find the usual suspects (San Diego St & Murray St) joined by two new CAA teams. While the AP voters are showing the hot CAA teams love, the computers are not impressed. VCU and Drexel sit 57th and 64th in the CR despite getting Top 25 votes. Perhaps simply a holdover from last year's VCU run.

 

Notre Dame is also considered highly overrated by the computers. Notre Dame is 38th in the CR, and all 3 ratings feel quite similarly about the Irish. The computers feel Notre Dame's extended winning streak has a lot to do with weak opponents.

 

In the last two weeks, Mississippi St has dropped 18 spots in the CR due to three straight losses. At 66th, the Bulldogs are considered worse than the likes of Marshall, Oregon, and Akron.

 

What Is It?

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

80 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

 

Rank Team RPI KenPom Sagarin Avg 2 Weeks 3 Weeks AP
1 Kentucky 4 1 1 2.0 2t 4 1
2t Michigan St 2 3 5 3.3 4 5 6
2t Syracuse 1 5 4 3.3 2t 3 2
4 Ohio St 7 2 2 3.7 1 2 8
5 Kansas 6 4 3 4.3 5 1 4
6 UNC 5 7 6 6.0 6t 7 7
7 Missouri 9 8 7 8.0 8 8 3
8 Duke 3 13 9 8.3 9 9 5
9t Wisconsin 23 6 8 12.3 13t 11 16
9t Georgetown 13 12 12 12.3 11 12 9
11 Marquette 8 16 15 13.0 15 14 10
12 Baylor 10 17 14 13.7 6t 6 13
13 Indiana 16 15 11 14.0 10 13 23
14 Wichita St 15 10 19 14.7 18 15 19
15 Florida 18 14 13 15.0 12 16 12
16 Saint Louis 22 11 17 16.7 19 21 29
17 New Mexico 26 9 16 17.0 21 28 18
18 Michigan   14 23 22 19.7 22 29 11
19t Florida St 19 21 21 20.3 16 18 15
19t UNLV 12 29 20 20.3 13t 10 21
21 Louisville 20 25 18 21.0 24 36 17
22 California 30 18 19 22.3 32t 22 33
23 Memphis 25 19 24 22.7 23 25  
24 Vanderbilt 24 24 28 25.3 31 31 31t
25 Temple 17 31 32 26.7 34 32 22
26 Gonzaga 21 33 30 28.0 27t 20 27
27 Virginia 42 20 23 28.3 25 27 25
28 Creighton 28 37 27 30.7 17 17 26
29 Alabama 36 28 29 31.0 26 26  
30 Harvard 31 30 37 32.7 37t 41 31t
31t Texas 51 22 26 33.0 37t 42  
31t Kansas St 49 26 25 33.3 32t 19  
33 UCONN 27 39 39 35.0 29 30  
34 West Virginia 40 36 33 36.3 27t 24  
35t BYU 48 32 31 37.0 35t 34 28
35t Iowa St 41 34 36 37.0 35t 48  
37 Southern Miss 11 53 48 37.3 30 38  
38 Notre Dame 38 38 40 38.7 50 x 20
39 St. Mary's 32 48 38 39.3 20 23 34
40 Purdue 52 35 34 40.3 44t 47  
41 Long Beach St 39 44 41 41.3 39 37 35
42 Seton Hall 34 46 45 41.7 49 39  
43 MTSU 37 49 43 43.0 40 40  
44 Belmont 70 27 35 44.0 x

x

 
45 Miami 46 42 46 44.7 46 x  
46 Murray St 35 57 47 46.3 47 35 14
47 Northwestern 43 50 49 47.3 54 50  
48 San Diego St 33 60 53 48.7 41 33 24
49 Iona 44 52 51 49.0 51 51  
50 Arizona 67 41 44 50.7 44t 54  
51 St. Joseph's 47 59 57 54.3 55 57  
52 Cincinnati 82 40 42 54.7 59 58  
53t NC State 60 55 52 55.7 x x  
535 Xavier 53 58 56 55.7 53 49  
55 Minnesota 72 51 50 57.7 43 45  
56 La Salle 71 45 59 58.3 x

x

 
57 VCU 80 43 54 59.0 x x 36
58 Washington 56 65 60 60.3 60 x  
59 Illinois 69 63 55 62.3 42 43  
60 Akron 64 62 63 63.0 56 x  
61 Oregon 55 67 72 64.7 x x  
62 South Florida 50 69 76 65.0 x x  
63 Marshall 57 68 71 65.3 64 63  
64 Drexel 86 47 64 65.7 x x 30
65 Oral Roberts 45 90 65 66.7 57 53  
66 Mississippi St 59 81 61 67.0 48 44  
67 Northern Iowa 63 80 70 71.0 58 56  
68 Davidson 76 66 75 72.3 62t 52  
69 Colorado St 29 98 91 72.7 65 65  
70 UCF 54 82 85 73.7 71 64  
71 Stanford 104 61 58 74.3 62t 59  
72 Wagner 68 88 78 78.0 67 68  
73 Cleveland St 75 86 77 79.3 52 60  
74 Denver 96 70 80 82.0 72 67  
75 Dayton 74 92 82 82.7 69 46  
76 Nevada 58 101 100 86.3 x x  
77 Virginia Tech 102 85 74 87.0 66 55  
78 Ohio   90 100 89 93.0 68 62  
79 Ole Miss 62 115 107 94.7 70 66  
80 Arkansas 87 112 99 99.3 61 61  

 

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +34

Murray St +32

San Diego St +24

VCU +21

Notre Dame +18

BYU +7

Michigan +7

LBSU +6

 

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Saint Louis -13

California -11

Indiana -10

Vanderbilt -7

Wisconsin -7

 

Teams w/ no votes

Memphis

Alabama

Texas

Kansas St

 

Biggest Changes In Last 2 Weeks:

Rising

Notre Dame +12

California +10

Temple +9

Harvard +7

Seton Hall +7

Vanderbilt +7

Falling

Cleveland St -21

Arkansas -19

Saint Mary's -19

Mississippi St -18

Illinois -17

Minnesota -12

 

Biggest Changes In Last Three Weeks:

Rising

Louisville +15

Iowa St +13

Northwestern +13

Harvard +11

New Mexico +11

Texas +11

Falling

Dayton -29

Mississippi St -22

Virginia Tech -22

Minnesota -20

Arkansas -19

Davidson/Illinois/SMC -16

 

 

 

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