Consensus Ranking: Michigan St Tied For 2nd

After missing last week's Consensus Ranking due to extensive travel, this week's list grows to include 7 new teams, the highest of which is #44 Belmont.

 

At the top of the ranking, Kentucky takes over #1, edging Syracuse who has slumped in the Sagarin & KenPom ratings (due to close wins).

 

Wichita St sits at 14th in the CR. The Shockers have been in the Consensus Top 20 for over a month, while the AP voters have been slow to recognize how good they are. Saint Louis, 16th in the CR, is not getting the AP love either. The Bills are the most underrated team according to the computers. Other underrated teams include Cal and Memphis.

 

On the overrated side, we find the usual suspects (San Diego St & Murray St) joined by two new CAA teams. While the AP voters are showing the hot CAA teams love, the computers are not impressed. VCU and Drexel sit 57th and 64th in the CR despite getting Top 25 votes. Perhaps simply a holdover from last year's VCU run.

 

Notre Dame is also considered highly overrated by the computers. Notre Dame is 38th in the CR, and all 3 ratings feel quite similarly about the Irish. The computers feel Notre Dame's extended winning streak has a lot to do with weak opponents.

 

In the last two weeks, Mississippi St has dropped 18 spots in the CR due to three straight losses. At 66th, the Bulldogs are considered worse than the likes of Marshall, Oregon, and Akron.

 

What Is It?

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

 

80 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 60, C) any team in CHN Top 50, D) any team in the KenPom Top 50, and E) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

 

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

 

Rank	Team	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	Avg	2 Weeks	3 Weeks	AP
1	Kentucky	4	1	1	2.0	2t	4	1
2t	Michigan St	2	3	5	3.3	4	5	6
2t	Syracuse	1	5	4	3.3	2t	3	2
4	Ohio St	7	2	2	3.7	1	2	8
5	Kansas	6	4	3	4.3	5	1	4
6	UNC	5	7	6	6.0	6t	7	7
7	Missouri	9	8	7	8.0	8	8	3
8	Duke	3	13	9	8.3	9	9	5
9t	Wisconsin	23	6	8	12.3	13t	11	16
9t	Georgetown	13	12	12	12.3	11	12	9
11	Marquette	8	16	15	13.0	15	14	10
12	Baylor	10	17	14	13.7	6t	6	13
13	Indiana	16	15	11	14.0	10	13	23
14	Wichita St	15	10	19	14.7	18	15	19
15	Florida	18	14	13	15.0	12	16	12
16	Saint Louis	22	11	17	16.7	19	21	29
17	New Mexico	26	9	16	17.0	21	28	18
18	Michigan	14	23	22	19.7	22	29	11
19t	Florida St	19	21	21	20.3	16	18	15
19t	UNLV	12	29	20	20.3	13t	10	21
21	Louisville	20	25	18	21.0	24	36	17
22	California	30	18	19	22.3	32t	22	33
23	Memphis	25	19	24	22.7	23	25
24	Vanderbilt	24	24	28	25.3	31	31	31t
25	Temple	17	31	32	26.7	34	32	22
26	Gonzaga	21	33	30	28.0	27t	20	27
27	Virginia	42	20	23	28.3	25	27	25
28	Creighton	28	37	27	30.7	17	17	26
29	Alabama	36	28	29	31.0	26	26
30	Harvard	31	30	37	32.7	37t	41	31t
31t	Texas	51	22	26	33.0	37t	42
31t	Kansas St	49	26	25	33.3	32t	19
33	UCONN	27	39	39	35.0	29	30
34	West Virginia	40	36	33	36.3	27t	24
35t	BYU	48	32	31	37.0	35t	34	28
35t	Iowa St	41	34	36	37.0	35t	48
37	Southern Miss	11	53	48	37.3	30	38
38	Notre Dame	38	38	40	38.7	50	x	20
39	St. Mary's	32	48	38	39.3	20	23	34
40	Purdue	52	35	34	40.3	44t	47
41	Long Beach St	39	44	41	41.3	39	37	35
42	Seton Hall	34	46	45	41.7	49	39
43	MTSU	37	49	43	43.0	40	40
44	Belmont	70	27	35	44.0	x	x
45	Miami	46	42	46	44.7	46	x
46	Murray St	35	57	47	46.3	47	35	14
47	Northwestern	43	50	49	47.3	54	50
48	San Diego St	33	60	53	48.7	41	33	24
49	Iona	44	52	51	49.0	51	51
50	Arizona	67	41	44	50.7	44t	54
51	St. Joseph's	47	59	57	54.3	55	57
52	Cincinnati	82	40	42	54.7	59	58
53t	NC State	60	55	52	55.7	x	x
535	Xavier	53	58	56	55.7	53	49
55	Minnesota	72	51	50	57.7	43	45
56	La Salle	71	45	59	58.3	x	x
57	VCU	80	43	54	59.0	x	x	36
58	Washington	56	65	60	60.3	60	x
59	Illinois	69	63	55	62.3	42	43
60	Akron	64	62	63	63.0	56	x
61	Oregon	55	67	72	64.7	x	x
62	South Florida	50	69	76	65.0	x	x
63	Marshall	57	68	71	65.3	64	63
64	Drexel	86	47	64	65.7	x	x	30
65	Oral Roberts	45	90	65	66.7	57	53
66	Mississippi St	59	81	61	67.0	48	44
67	Northern Iowa	63	80	70	71.0	58	56
68	Davidson	76	66	75	72.3	62t	52
69	Colorado St	29	98	91	72.7	65	65
70	UCF	54	82	85	73.7	71	64
71	Stanford	104	61	58	74.3	62t	59
72	Wagner	68	88	78	78.0	67	68
73	Cleveland St	75	86	77	79.3	52	60
74	Denver	96	70	80	82.0	72	67
75	Dayton	74	92	82	82.7	69	46
76	Nevada	58	101	100	86.3	x	x
77	Virginia Tech	102	85	74	87.0	66	55
78	Ohio	90	100	89	93.0	68	62
79	Ole Miss	62	115	107	94.7	70	66
80	Arkansas	87	112	99	99.3	61	61

 

Most Overrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Drexel +34 Murray St +32 San Diego St +24 VCU +21 Notre Dame +18

BYU +7 Michigan +7 LBSU +6

 

Most Underrated: AP vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes Saint Louis -13 California -11 Indiana -10 Vanderbilt -7 Wisconsin -7

Teams w/ no votes Memphis Alabama Texas Kansas St

 

Biggest Changes In Last 2 Weeks:

Rising Notre Dame +12 California +10 Temple +9 Harvard +7 Seton Hall +7 Vanderbilt +7

Falling Cleveland St -21 Arkansas -19 Saint Mary's -19 Mississippi St -18 Illinois -17 Minnesota -12

 

Biggest Changes In Last Three Weeks:

Rising Louisville +15 Iowa St +13 Northwestern +13 Harvard +11 New Mexico +11 Texas +11

Falling Dayton -29 Mississippi St -22 Virginia Tech -22 Minnesota -20 Arkansas -19 Davidson/Illinois/SMC -16

 

 

 

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