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6/30 well..
the nba draft is now a thing of the past.. and if you predicted
ian mahinmi would be a first round pick (and you dont work in the
spurs front office) then you know you're stuff better than i do..
along that line, it was amazing how much better all the predictors
did predicting the 2004 draft as compared to 2005.. most of the
various major nba mock drafts on web were relatively similar in
success, though i give nbadraft.net credit for doing a fine job
nailing a few guys that no one else did.. on the other hand, chad
ford at espn was the only major mock which was clearly inferior to
the rest.. how does a guy with his job and his connections manage
to be so off year after year?.. who knows, but check out our mock
draft report card for more on that.. tuesday was the biggest day
in chn's history, bigger than any day during the ncaa tournament..
we had 39,000 unique visitors yesterday, which is quite exciting
and hopefully sign of things to come in the future.. for the
month, we averaged about 12,500 per day which is exactly 2.5 times
more than during june of 2004.. hopefully we maintain the two to
three times yearly growth in the coming months as well.. as our
older message board was virtually ruined from a hacker attack with
ezboard, we'll be unveiling a new improved message board soon.. in
the coming weeks, we'll be getting back to our college basketball
focus, as well as focusing on coverage of the recruiting camps..
6/28 (..we'll be
posting commentary and the picks the whole deal live
tonight beginning at 7:15 pm.. if you're online at the time,
we'll even have an instant messenger line open for fans to send
their commentary as it comes in.. those who make quality comments
and include their name and hometown will have their thoughts
posted live for thousands to see.. should be fun, see you there!)
..ah, the nba draft.. can you feel it? i sure can.. i can sure
feel the bliss of relaxation which i can enjoy on the 29th..
months of predictions and suggestions and implications and
expectations will lead to one glorious moment.. when i can sit
back at about midnight tonight and tell the world.. i told you
so.. that's right, i'm going to plop back on my couch and tell
everyone who'll listen i told you so.. i'm going to tell josh from
bowling green that no, randolph morris was not a top 20 pick.. i'm
going to tell juan from pal alto that no, scouts have not fallen
in love with dijon thompson.. i will tell loren from long island
that no, the knicks are not going to trade up to #1 for jamal
crawford and mike sweetney.. i will sit back and write email after
email and make phone call after phone call and tell everyone i
told you so.. but the fact is i am less certain about what it is
that will happen in this draft then ever before.. and you know
what, that's a good thing.. that's a good thing, not only for me,
but for all you to.. because it means there's mystery in this
draft, there's uncertainty, and hopefully, there will be a little
drama.. this draft should have its trades, its surprises.. some
unlikely player will squeeze into round 1.. will it be ryan gomes?
luther head? ronny turiaf?.. some unlucky player will be sitting
in the green room just waiting, begging, praying for his name to
be called.. some unlucky player will be drafted by the knicks and
booed like crazy.. some unlucky high school player (read andrew
bynum) will get picked high and be pelted with a chorus of boos..
why? because bynum's about to become a millionaire and you're
not.. because in the end, what is the nba draft but the reality
version of who wants to be a millionaire?..
6/27 ..the NBA
Draft is a day away.. by now, chris taft has appeared in about 15
different spots on our mock draft since new year's.. monta ellis
has covered half the draft, and john gilchrist was once considered
a 1st round pick.. on chn, we archive all of
our
previous mock drafts for fans to check out.. it's an
interesting look at the ebb and flow of the draft process, as guys
move up the chart, down, and then back up again in just a few
months.. our first updated mock draft of 2005 came on february
11th.. on the most part, our draft then looks pretty good compared
to now, but there are a few major differences, i suggest you check
out
this february mock for comparison to today's mock.. at the top
we had marvin williams, with bogut second, followed by chris paull..
when all is said and done, these three will remain at the top..
our 4th and 5th picks however will be nowhere near the lottery
come draft day.. nemanja aleksandrov, the big russian, has since
removed himself from draft consideration and will instead be in
next year's draft.. our #5 at the time chris taft, will most
likely drop into the mid-twenties tomorrow.. other big movers from
this february mock draft are ronny turiaf, who we had at 13th..
when all is said and done, turiaf may actually resurface at the
very end of round 1 despite spending the last couple of months in
round 2 of most major mock drafts.. antoine wright, who we had
down in 28th position, really shot up the charts over the past few
months, and is now considered a lock to be a lottery pick..
similar to wright is danny granger and channing frye, two college
big men who have shot up into top 10 consideration.. virtually no
one thought frye particularly could have been a top 10 pick back
in february, no one.. unlike granger, and frye, dijon thompson and
john gilchrist wer guys on the first round fence back in february,
who have since continued to drop continually deeper into the 2nd
round.. gilchrist at least got a boost with a strong pre-draft
camp performance, but the same can't be said for thompson.. julius
hodge was sitting at #31 in our mock draft back in february.. he
proceeded to drop like a stone down to a low of 55th at one point,
before popping back up in recent weeks to #33, and when all is
said and done, he may end up going #31 in the very place we
originally had him.. finally, before we knew about the various
high school and european entrants, we had a lot more college
players on the nba draft fringe, who have no shot at getting
drafted at this point.. those players included josh pace, chris
thomas, isma'il muhammad, glen mcgowan, and odartay blankson..
6/25 ..the myth of
the nba draft expert.. who amongst us really knows what will
happen in the upcoming draft?.. do i?.. does chad ford?.. does the
crack staff at nbadraft.net?.. do you?.. the answer is that if you
really follow the draft, you probably have a very good idea of
where the players will go.. this is not rocket science, but yet
the average nba fan has little clue about who will get picked
where.. in fact, the average nba beat writer often has no clue
beyond and marvin williams.. doing some reading on the draft, i
come across an "nba draft insider" article from a chicago
newspaper.. on a list of what appears to be the top small forward
prospects in the draft, #5 is none other than la salle's steven
smith.. this pick is ridiculous and cute to begin with, but it
becomes quite sad when you realize he withdrew his name from
consideration and is returning to la salle next season.. this is
just one of many examples of the type of article that the average
nba fan who doesn't stray on the web is getting.. even those fans
who frequent cnnsi.com or foxsports.com don't get a quality look
at the draft.. last year, chad ford and andy katz's mock draft on
espn faile miserably in comparison to our own mock draft and other
websites.. why is it that two guys who get paid hundreds of
thousands of dollars, and have access to more information than
anyone, can't even do better predicting the draft than us common
web folk?.. a big part of the answer has to do with stubbornness
and a lack of common sense.. the avergae nba writer and fan simply
refuses to believe that teams won't just go gaga over their
favorite college star?.. why is jameer nelson not a top 5 pick??..
because he's a backup nba point guard.. why is wayne simien not a
top 10 pick??.. because he's simply not that good.. the average
fan and the average nba beat writer simply go with what they know,
which is that they've seen a few highlights here and there of
college games, they know hakim warrick can dunk.. and thus you see
sam smith of the tribune write that hakim warrick is the best
power forward in the draft.. just as it's cute to see steven smith
on a list of the best small forwards, it's cute to see warrick on
a list of power forwards, even though he will never play that
position in the nba, and there's a reason he won't go until the
15th pick at the earliest..
6/24 ..the #1 pick
in the 2007 nba draft is.. not oj mayo.. unfortunately for the
young phenom, the new nba rule will push back his nba debut until
the 2008-09 season (seems far away doesn't it..).. even more so
than greg oden, the player most impacted by this decision is mayo,
who is an even better talent than the 7-0 big man.. but how
good is mayo?.. will his one year in college have the same kind of
impact as carmelo anthony?.. is he really the 2nd coming of
lebron?.. right now, he's not considered to be as talented
(barely) as lebron was at his age, but he's a better prospect than
carmelo was.. mayo is listed at 6-5 right now, after having grown
over an inch in the last year.. perhaps by the time his high
school career is done, mayo will gain another inch or two and
approach lebron's 6-8 height.. unlike lebron, who is not used as a
point guard, mayo is almost certainly on track to be an nba point
guard.. mayo is arguably the best player in the country (any age)
despite only heading into his junior year.. at usa basketball's
youth development festival, mayo was the leading scorer with 26.5
per game, although his team did lose to oden's in the tournament
final.. in the losing final, mayo scored 31 while being guarded by
paul harris.. one of the top 20 players in the class of 2006.. if
harris couldn't stop him, then nobody can.. even though lebron was
considered to be a bit more of a physical freak at this time,
mayo's game is even more refined in certain respects.. unlike
james, who is still perfecting his jumper, mayo already has better
touch than james did, and already has consistent range from the
nba 3-point line.. because of this, and the fact he's working
harder to perfect the point guard position, it may be the case
that mayo will have a bigger impact in his one season in college
than lebron would have had if he played.. especially, when you
consider the fact that mayo will end up going as a tag-team with
his buddy bill walker (top ten player in '07) to the same school..
whichever school gets this pair will be in line for a trip to the
elite eight at the least.. right now word is that cincinnati is a
major player for the pair's services, but this may only be if
huggins is around.. louisville is also a major player, and ohio
state is in the running as well.. it seems as if the pair wants to
stay close to home, but as time progresses, the duo's
preferences will surely change..
6/21 ..news from
espn.com today is that the nba is set to announce their new
collective bargaining agreement.. according to espn's ric bucher..
"A 19-year-old age minimum or one year out of high school
would be implemented for entry into the NBA draft".. what does
this mean for college basketball?.. well, kobe wasn't even 18 when
he entered the draft, as was jermaine oneal.. mcgrady, lebron,
dwight howard were not 19.. this means that those players would
have to play college basketball for one season (or play elsewhere)
before they could enter the draft.. for a college basketball site,
this is probably a very good thing, although an under 20 limit or
two years out of high school limit would have been ideal.. still,
the added interest of a player like greg oden or an oj mayo
spending a year in college, playing basketball, will certainly be
a benefit for chn and the game on tv.. besides the interest in
seeing these players play on tv, extra interest will of course be
put back in recruiting as the top players choose what school to
attend.. no doubt, the rivals.com and scout.com sites of the world
are very happy as well, though they were probably hoping for the
2-year limit also..
6/19 ..i hope
everyone enjoyed the father's day weekend and had a chance to
spend time with loved ones.. we'll be unveiling a bunch of new
columnists on chn in the coming weeks, as we get set for our
coverage of the 05-06 season.. yesterday, you may have noticed a
quality father's day article on
the father of basketball, dr james naismith by a new writer..
ryne nelson should provide chn with a fresh voice, as the chicago-area
native tries to blur the borders of what a college basketball
column should be.. another exciting note today on chn is that we
begin our 144 teams in 144 days preview of the 2005-06 college
basketball season.. check out
our preview to see who lucky team #144 is.. the 2nd round of
the nba draft is always a crap shoot, but in this year's pretty
deep draft, it seems like there are a whole bunch of guys who
could go anywhere from 30th to 60th.. some of these complete
unknows are ronny turiaf, john gilchrist, luther head, travis
diener, salim stoudamire, sean banks, and jason maxiell.. another
guy who has been jumping up and down various nba mock drafts is
rashad mccants.. the biggest problem for mccants is that the
majority of teams in the mid-teens need forwards.. if it was on
pure talent, mccants would be a lock for the lottery, but the size
and need for big men could drop him into the mid-twenties.. but
when you think of shooting guard/wing type players, you have the
clear head of the class in gerald green.. but how much better is
anotine wright who should go top 10 than rashad mccants who might
not even go top 20.. an article in the cincinnati post says that
randolph morris will finally decide on his nba draft status
tomorrow morning.. it seems highly doubtful at this point that
morris would decide to 100% enter the draft considering that he's
anything but a lock on the first round.. lastly, there's been a
rumor for quite some time that russia's yaroslav korolev has had
an agreement to be chosen in the top 20.. according to
nbadraft.net, this guarantee is from the clippers.. i havent heard
anything to substantiate this rumor yet, but the fact is that the
clippers are one of the only teams where it would make sense for
the rumor to be true.. at the 12 position, there's no one impact
player who will be able to take the clippers over the hump, and
they have enough forwards on their roster where the don't need a
sean may or granger here to come in and play from day one.. you
figure the clippers will go very young here, either with a high
school player (webster) or a foreigner (korolev or even
adriuskevicius).. however andriuskevicius may pull out of the
draft as he doesn't have a guarantee yet..
6/16 ..a few
people have asked me what i thought about the carlton dotson
sentencing.. dotson is the former baylor ballplayer who was just
charged with 35 year in prison for shooting his teammate patrick
dennehy.. honestly, this incident is so far outside the realm of
college basketball, that i really have no insight to offer..
georgia state announced the contract extension of head coach mike
perry.. this is a pretty shrewd move by the panthers head coach..
georgia state is coming off a relatively disappointing 14-win
season, and now will move into the more highly competitive
colonial athletic association.. the team loses its top two leading
scorers last year, and with tougher competition than the a-sun
had, it might be a tough 05-06 and 06-07 for gsu.. there's been
some rumblings about julius hodge's increased draft stock.. much
of this stems from chad ford's mock draft, which suddenly has
hodge going at #19.. if this were the case, it would be a meteoric
rise for chn's preseason player of the year choice, who after a
tough season, was considered by many to be a late 2nd round pick
for some time.. despite's ford prediction, it's hard to imagine
going anywhere above.. we've had hodge listed as a two-star
prospect on our rankings list, meaning we think he'll be a career
reserve.. we consider hodge equal to players like kennedy winston
and francisco garcia, and some teams believe hodge can be
successful as a backup point guard, which has really increased his
value.. if hodge does manage to squeeze into the 1st round,
perhaps with the spurs or knicks, it will spell bad news for
garcia, winston, or even a guy like rashad mccants.. lastly, what
in god's name is going at draftcity.com, or is it now
draftexpress.com.. apparently, draftcity's lead writer was
"fired".. but now that same person has started a new website which
look exactly the same as the old one and with the exact same
content?.. something fishy is going on with that situation..
and i smell a law suit..
6/14 ..how many
2nd round picks ever really pan out in the NBA?.. this was
basically the question asked to me by a fan for use in the
NBA Draft Mailbag, but I
decided to use today's column to answer the question in more
depth.. i decided to do some research and focused on the 2000 nba
draft.. of course, this is a small sample, and the 2000 draft is
considered a particularly bad draft, but I use 2000 because it
gives 5 nba seasons since then, a nice easy number to round out my
numbers.. 58 total players were chosen in the 2000 draft, 29 in
each round.. the question posed by the fan wondered how many
players who get picked ever really pan out, and play more than 50
nba games.. well, here are some numbers for you to mull over.. out
of the 58 players selected, only 13 have played over 300 nba games
(the bucks' redd being the only 2nd rounder to do so).. 25, less
than half, have played in 200 career games.. this means that less
than half of all players selected in the draft have even averaged
40 games per year over the past 5 years.. to me, this is the
threshold for even being considered a legitimate nba player.. only
4 out of the 29 second rounders have played in 200 games.. redd,
voskuhl, house, and najera.. 4 out of 29 second rounders who have
become consistent nba players is not very many.. this shows you
just how hard it is for second rounders to succeed.. 10 2nd
rounders have played at least 100 games, meaning they got a couple
of seasons run in the NBA.. and 16 2nd rounders played in 50 games
or more.. this means that 13 2nd rounders have never even played
50 games in the nba.. and not one player drafted after the 49th
picked has played more than 51 games.. so what does all this mean?
that you should not get overly excited or intrigued by your team's
draft choices in the 2nd round, particularly those beyond about
the 40th pick.. in the 2000 draft, 8 of the last 18 picks never
even played in a single nba game.. so if your favorite team
selects dijon thompson instead of pops mensah-bonsu, or selects
filberto rivera instead of bj elder, don't worry about it..
because the odds are that all four of those guys will spend the
bulk of their playing career in a league other than the nba..
6/12 ..so no
updates over the weekend.. howcome? was i out playing golf,
enjoying the sun, having a bbq.. more like redesigning chn's
frontpage.. you can check out the new design which will go live
this afternoon at this link.. the
need for a new look was not based on asthetics (although hopefully
it looks nicer) but due to functionality.. we needed to make the
main navigation links clearer, and higher on the page.. we needed
to create a larger space for the lead story and a larger space for
a lead picture.. we needed to add different advertising space for
our new sponsor, partypoker.com, whose ads will go live by the end
of the day.. we also needed to create space for our 2005-06
college basketball preview, which starts in earnest on june 20th
(this coming monday) with our #144th ranked team preview.. even
beyond that, the logo was altered to reflect our use of the new
and improved collegehoops.net url, and greater focus was put on
drawing people into stories and departments instead of just
listing them all.. i know i am very happy with the new look, and i
hope you are as well.. if you have any ideas, suggestions, or if
you spot any corrections that need to be made, do not hesitate to
email me at njhoopsnet@aol.com
.. also, a new updated mock draft is going up in a bit, as well as
a fun look at the worst draft flops and biggest draft steals of
all time..
6/10 ..wanted to
take a look at who will be the top 5 college basketball players
picked in next year's draft.. right now, rudy gay is clearly the
guy most highly thought of by nba scouts.. gay should be looking
at averages of at least 16 ppg and 7 rpg for the huskies.. he
needs to work on consistency, as it seems like every few weeks
last season he'd come up with a dud where he'd shoot 1 of 6 or 2
of 7 from the floor.. with ronny turiaf out of the picture, and
another year of experience under his belt, adam morrison has a
chance to put up special numbers for the zags in his junior year..
averages of 23 points and 7 rebounds per game are not out of the
question.. offensively, morrison has a flare and feel for scoring
which you can't teach, but his game does have holes.. he strongly
needs to improve his rebounding skills and interior defense.. nba
scouts would also love to see morrison develop consistency from
the nba three, which should come over time.. kansas' recruit
julian wright may be the best pro prospect who did not go directly
to the nba from high school.. with a depleted kansas team missing
simien, langford, miles, and perhaps jr giddens, wright can have a
major impact from day one.. self has been contemplating using the
6-8 wright at the point, but he can pretty much be a factor at
every position but center in the college ranks.. wright lacks a
consistent jump shot, but nba teams will have patience working on
his jay as they salivate over his athletic abilities.. when texas
was beset with injuries, freshman pg daniel gibson took on the
added burden of scoring the ball.. the 6-2 guard was a prolific
scorer in high school, and he has no problem scoring when needed..
however, to prove his worth to the nba, gibson will need to show
improved decision-making skills and leadership qualities.. the
number to look at for gibson is his assist to turnover ratio as
his 3.9 apg were offset by over 3 turnovers per game.. 3 turnovers
isn't that bad for a point guard playing over 30 minutes a game,
but he'll need to boost his assists to over 5 per game this year
while maintaining the turnover totals.. lastly, a very similar
player to gibson is memphis' darius washington jr.. washington's
numbers are very similar to gibson's across the board, though
washington is an even more natural scorer.. washington's 3.8
assists to 3.5 turnovers also needs to be improved, and i'm sure
it will with another year of experience and lesser competition in
the conference usa..
6/08 ..we're just
now getting around to updating all our pages to reflect all the
changes in conference affiliation this season.. with this in mind,
i felt like it would be a good time to discuss just how good the
new big east really is.. some people are calling the new big east
the best basketball conference ever, but is this really true?.. if
this were the summer after the 1987 final four, then no doubt this
compilation of teams would have been by far the greatest ever..
from 1977 to 1987, an 11 year period, the teams that are now in
the big east had an amazing run of success.. they claimed 5 of
those championships, won by 4 different teams (louisville won
twice in 80 and 86).. 3 big east teams were finalists (g'town
twice in 82 and 85).. the big east also placed 6 other teams in
the final four.. all this taken together means that in that 11
year period.. depaul, georgetown, louisville, marquette, notre
dame, providence, st john's, syracuse, villanova all made the
final four.. an amazing 9 separate teams made it to the ncaa's
final weekend.. but what about the past 11 years, from 1995 to
2005?.. you have a solid 3 ncaa championships won by uconn and
syracuse.. you have one finalist in the 1996 orangemen.. and you
have two final fours in 03 marquette and this past year's
louisville squad.. only 4 of the current big east squads have made
the final four in the past 11 years with a total of 6
appearances.. the acc boasts 4 teams with 11 appearances.. the big
ten boasts 6 teams who made it that far totaling 8 appearances..
even the sec has had 4 teams make the final four in the same
timeframe that the big east.. so, what does all this mean?,, that
we should not get over-excited about how great the big east is
compared to the other conferences.. louisville is certainly a
thoroughbred.. but the other teams might not add as much as you
think.. outside of the fluke of getting dwyane wade, marquette is
been a relative non-factor at the premier level since the late
70's.. with huggins seemingly done with the bearcats program, uc
fears returning to the struggling program it was in the long gap
between the big o and the bob h.. lastly, depaul seemed to be on
the right track, before losing their head coach to virginia, and
southern florida is but southern florida.. no doubt the big east
is very solid, but it has been very solid before these additions..
and even with louisville and cincinnati, the track record of this
new combined conferences still pales in comparison to the acc or
big ten over the past decade or so..
6/06 ..today, we
put up our statistical projections
for potential 2005 nba draft picks.. i thought it would be a good
time then to look at some statistical trends of recent nba
rookies.. one thing i notice with fans and nba analysts alike, is
that people tend to categorically overestimate the initial success
of nba rookies.. people unrealistically assume that every nba
lottery pick will come in and be a big boost to their team's
near-future success.. historically, and even more so today than
ever in the past, the majority of players selected in the nba
draft will be of little help in the short-term, and very few
players outside of the top 20 will ever be of much help in the
long-term.. let's look at some numbers from the past two drafts..
last year, 6 nba rookies averaged in double figures while only 5
did so in the previous draft.. with a wide variety of foreign
players and high school players in this draft, it is doubtful that
more than a handful of players or so will average in double
figures this year.. another thing to note is the lack of initial
success for european-based players in their rookie campaigns.. in
2003-04, the only european player to finish in the top 20 in
rookie scoring was mickael pietrus who averaged 5.3 ppg for the
warriors and finished in 20th place.. in 2004-05, you had two..
nenad krstic and beno udrih finishing in 7th and 7th
respectively.. what this means is that you should not expect a
johan petro or an ersan ilyasova to do much of anything in their
rookie campaigns.. another thing to note is that players selected
in the top 6 or 7 picks seem to be a very indicator of who will be
the leading rookie scorers.. in 2003-04, the top 5 leading scorers
were among the top 7 picks (the biggest exception of course being
darko).. in 2004-05, 5 of the top 6 leading scorers were chosen in
the first 7 picks.. with that in mind, a great place to look and
see who will be the leading scoring rookies next year is the top 7
picks in the draft.. it seems like a virtual lock that bogut, paul,
williams, williams, and green will be among the top 6 or 7 leading
scorers in next year's rookie class..
6/03 ..george
mikan passed away at 80 today.. it's a good time to look back on
perhaps the most underappreciated player in nba history.. of
course mikan was playing in the later 40's to early 50's when the
game was merely a shell of what it would become.. but from a pure
statistical standpoint, his dominance is only second to that of
wilt chamberlain.. a chicago-area native, mikan played his college
ball at depaul before becoming a professional with the chicago
gears of the then national basketball league.. interestingly,
after leading the nbl in scoring in his rookie year, the chicago
franchise decided to drop out of the league and join another
league, the pbla.. when the pbla disbanded shortly after, the nbl
refused to allow chicago back, and mikan was then placed on the
minnesota franchise.. this is the team he would spend the rest of
his brief career on, winning 4 championships in the 5 year period
from 50 to 54, and being named all-nba each of those 5 years..
however, he must be truly noted for his scoring prowess at a time
when scoring was at a premium.. he led the league in scoring in
each of his first 6 years as a professional, peaking with 28.4 in
50-51.. in 48-49, the 6-10 big man averaged 28.3 in a league where
only 2 other players (joe fulks and max zaslofsky) averaged over
17 per game.. the following year, he averaged 27.4 in a league
where only one other guy averaged over 18 per game.. when he
averaged 28.4 in 50-51, only two other players scored over 18.7
per game, and he scored 25% more points than alex groza who was
2nd.. in 51-52 and 52-53, mikan finally finished in 2nd place to
paul arizin and then neil johnston, but he was one of only three
guys to score over
20 per game in each of
those three years.. the point of all these stats is to show that
while mikan may only have averaged 22.6 for his career, he did so
at a time when 20 ppg was unheard of.. this was not the nba of the
mid-eighties, where multiple guys scored over 25 per game.. his
scoring average 22,6 in his day, is equivalent to being about a 30
point career scorer in today's game.. mikan should never be
forgotten as one of the greatest players in nba history..
6/01 ..many people
have asked me in recent days where randolph morris is on our mock
draft?.. the answer is that on the day of the lottery when our
mock was updated, we felt that the odds were that he was going to
return to college.. at this point however, from everything i've
read and heard, it appears that despite having not officially
announced signing with an agent, he will in fact be in the draft a
few weeks from now.. while he will be added into our next mock
draft update later today, i do not think it is a foregone
conclusion that he is leaving, as my gut tells me he will return..
i'm usually a strong backer of kids desires to leave early so long
as they're 1st round picks, but morris is one of the few who i
think should stay.. mainly because with the losses of hayes and
azubukie, morris has a real big chance to substantially improve is
production.. he's a good enough talent where unlike some guys who
may risk slipping by not leaving now, morris really has no chance
of slipping into the 2nd round next year, and could potentially
move into the late lottery range.. obviously the financial
benefits of being a 1st round vs. 2nd round pick are obvious, but
so are the benfits of moving from 30 to 15.. last year, the total
3-year salary for the 29th pick sums approximately 2.25 million..
the 10th pick would get 4.85 million.. this is no small
difference.. now, you do have to take into account the fact that
by leaving now, morris gets a head start by getting a years worth
of salary to invest, and for such a young guy this does have
serious long term benefits.. however, such benefits do not
outweigh the potential 2 million dollar gain morris could easily
receive by returning to kentucky, averaging 15 and 10 per game,
and coming out in a weaker draft class.. also, morris was born in
january 1986, meaning that even if waited until next year, he
would be 20 by the time of the draft, and would not be blocked by
an under 20 limit on nba draft entrants..
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