Friday Tournament Predictions: Horizon, OVC, MVC, WCC

    
March 2nd, 2012

Our g guru has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

 

ATLANTIC SUN SEMIFINALS: AT MACON, GA.

 

Belmont (25-7, 16-2) vs. East Tennessee State (17-13, 10-8)

 

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Comcast Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – Belmont 82-70; Feb. 18 – Belmont 80-58. RPI: Belmont 63, East Tennessee State 180. Analysis: Belmont beat the Buccaneers by a combined 34 points in two meetings this year. Can’t find a reason why the Bruins won’t blow them out again. Line: Belmont -12. Pick: Belmont 88, East Tennessee State 66.

 

 

Mercer (22-10, 13-5) vs. Florida Gulf Coast (14-16, 8-10)

 

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: Comcast Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Mercer 76-54; Feb. 20 – Mercer 75-66. RPI: Mercer 126, Florida Gulf Coast 238. Analysis: Mercer looked better in its win over Lipscomb, but the Bears probably aren’t playing well enough yet to take them against the spread. Line: Mercer -9.5. Pick: Mercer 71, Florida Gulf Coast 67.

 

 

HORIZON LEAGUE QUARETRFINALS: AT VALPARAISO, IND.

 

(3) Detroit (19-13, 11-7) vs. (6) Youngstown State (16-14, 10-8)

 

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Horizon League Network/ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Youngstown 64-61*; Feb. 25 – Detroit 76-74*. RPI: Detroit 158, Youngstown State 166. Analysis: Detroit’s underachieving roller coaster season comes to an end. Line: Detroit -6. Pick: Youngstown State 68, Detroit 65.

 

 

(4) Milwaukee (20-12, 11-7) vs. (5) Butler (19-13, 11-7)

 

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: Horizon League Network/ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Butler 54-50; Jan. 26 – Milwaukee 53-42. RPI: Milwaukee 124, Butler 112. Analysis: The Butler magic lives on – for one more day. Line: Butler -1. Pick: Butler 66, Milwaukee 61.

 

 

MISSOURI VALLEY QUARTERFINALS: AT ST. LOUIS

 

(1) Wichita State (26-4, 16-2) vs. (8) Indiana State (17-13, 8-10)

 

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Wichita State 75-65*; Feb. 4 – Wichita State 71-66. RPI: Wichita State 12, Indiana State 130. Analysis: This isn’t a typical 1/8 matchup with the Sycamores finishing a game behind third place. Indiana State is closer to the team that won last year’s tournament than to the one that struggled during the middle of this season. Line: Wichita St -10. Pick: Wichita State 70, Indiana State 62.

 

 

(4) Illinois State (18-12, 9-9) vs. (5) Northern Iowa (19-12, 9-9)

 

Tipoff: Approx. 3:30 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 29 – Illinois State 65-61; Feb. 11 – Northern Iowa 78-63. RPI: Illinois State 125, Northern Iowa 62. Analysis: This game could go either way, so take the team with more post-season experience. Line: Northern Iowa -2. Line: Northern Iowa -2. Pick: Northern Iowa 70, Illinois State 67.

 

 

(2) Creighton (25-5, 14-4) vs. (7) Drake (16-14, 9-9)

 

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Creighton 76-59; Jan. 25 – Creighton 77-69. RPI: Creighton 25, Drake 127. Analysis: Except for a late push against Long Beach State, the Blue Jays just aren’t playing as well as they were earlier this season. It would be tough to take them by more than a handful of points. Line: Creighton -8. Pick: Creighton 69, Drake 65.

 

 

(3) Evansville (15-14, 9-9) vs. (6) Missouri State (16-15, 9-9)

 

Tipoff: Approx. 9:30 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Evansville 87-82 (OT)*; Feb. 25 – Evansville 75-70 (OT). RPI: Evansville 138, Missouri State 108. Analysis: Missouri State senior Kyle Weems will find a way to shine in his final week, and the Bear defense will clamp down on Ace star Colt Ryan. Line: Missouri State -2. Pick: Missouri State 77, Evansville 70.

 

 

OHIO VALLEY SEMIFINALS: AT NASHVILLE

 

(1) Murray State (28-1, 15-1) vs. (4) Tennessee Tech (19-12, 9-7)

 

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Murray State 82-74; Feb. 25 – Murray State 69-64*. RPI: Murray State 31, Tennessee Tech 151. Analysis: Tennessee Tech found a way to keep both regular-season meetings close, and Kevin Murphy and the Eagles will push the Racers again. Line: Murray St -8. Pick: Murray State 70, Tennessee Tech 64.

 

 

(2) Tennessee State (19-11, 11-5) vs. (3) Morehead State (18-14, 10-6)

 

Tipoff: Approx. 8 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Tennessee State 77-72. RPI: Tennessee State 131, Morehead State 173. Analysis: With an extra day of rest, Tennessee State will pull away from the Eagles early in the second half. Line: Tennessee St -4. Pick: Tennessee State 81, Morehead State 69.

 

 

WCC QUARTERFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

 

(4) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 11-5) vs. (5) San Francisco (19-12, 8-8)

 

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Loyola Marymount 77-76 (OT)*; Feb. 4 – Loyola Marymount 90-88. RPI: Loyola Marymount 119, San Francisco 147. Analysis: Vegas is begging you to take LMU, don't fall for it. Line: San Francisco -1.5. Pick: Loyola Marymount 78, San Francisco 75.

 

 

(3) BYU (24-7, 12-4) vs. (6) San Diego (12-17, 9-7)

 

Tipoff: Approx. 11 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – BYU 88-52; Jan. 16 – BYU 82-63*. RPI: BYU 50, San Diego 193. Analysis: BYU will control the boards and its defensive end en route to an easy win. Line: BYU -13. Pick: BYU 78, San Diego 55.

 

*Road win

 

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 95-62-2