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Gonzaga Basketball Preview: #31
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October 19th, 2009
by Joel Welser
Gonzaga Basketball
Overall Rank: #31
Conference Rank: #1 West Coast Conference
2008-09: 28-6, 14-0
2008-09 postseason: NCAA
Coach: Mark Few (264-66 at Gonzaga, 264-66 overall)
This will not be the first time Gonzaga needs to reload, but with four starters gone, it will not be easy for Coach Mark Few to keep this group on the national radar. Austin Daye, Micah Downs, Josh Heytvelt and Jeremy Pargo led the Bulldogs to the Sweet Sixteen and a perfect West Coast Conference record. It could happen again, but Gonzaga will need to find a few new superstars.
Key Losses: F Ira Brown, F Austin Daye, G Micah Downs, F Josh Heytvelt, G Jeremy Pargo
Key Newcomers:
This may not be the best recruiting class to step foot in Spokane, but it is a big group. Coach Few has three redshirt freshmen, six incoming freshmen and one transfer that will all battle for minutes. Mangisto Arop is arguably the most talented of them all. The 6-5 wing is already becoming stronger than he was while playing high school in Canada and should provide an offensive spark off the bench. Sophomore Bol Kong, a native of Sudan, is also an intriguing prospect on the wing. Point guard G.J. Vilarino was on his way to Kentucky until the coaching change and is expected to be the point guard of the future and a contributor as a freshman. However, unless the Bulldogs play small, Sam Dower may be the most important newcomer this season. The 6-11, 228 pound freshman could step immediately into a starting role and is at least the most likely big man among the newcomers to play significant minutes off the bench.
Backcourt:
Do-it-all guard Matt Bouldin is the lone returning starter. After averaging 13.6 points, 3.4 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals a year ago, Bouldin has to be the go-to-guy for this team. Not only will Bouldin be asked to put up big numbers in just about every statistical category, but as a senior he will also need to be a leader on the floor. Getting a little more consistency out of Steven Gray would help take the pressure off Bouldin. Gray averaged 9.1 points per game last year, but he still is pretty much an outside shooter and once he gets aggressive going to the basket his scoring output will soar.
Frontcourt:
The frontcourt lacked depth last year once Robert Sacre went down with an injury and now things look a whole lot worse without Heytvelt and Daye. Sacre is the still the most experienced option after starting ten games as a freshman. During the 2008-2009 campaign, the 7-0 center only played in five games before suffering a foot injury. Other than Sacre, Will Foster is the only other returning big man and the senior has been around for a while, but he has never played very many minutes. Last season he just averaged 6.8 minutes per game in 24 contests. If Sacre gets hurt again, the Zags frontcourt will be in big trouble.
Who to Watch:
Demetri Goodson only averaged 13.4 minutes per game last year, but most feel he is ready to take over the point guard duties and lead this team back to the NCAA Tournament. The 5-11 sophomore seemed to improve with every game as a freshman and proved that he could handle the ball and handle the pressure, as was seen in Gonzaga’s second round victory over Western Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.
Final Projection:
A lot of pressure will fall on Goodson, but he is a quality player, albeit young and relatively inexperienced. As long as he takes care of the ball and finds Gray and Bouldin on the wings, Gonzaga will win the West Coast Conference. The frontcourt will work itself out and Coach Few has some options amongst the newcomers. Do not be surprised to see this team run some small ball and put a 6-5 or 6-6 wing at the power forward spot and have Sacre handle a majority of the minutes under the basket.
Projected Post-season Tournament: NCAA
Projected Starting Five:
Demetri Goodson, Sophomore, Guard, 3.8 points per game
Steven Gray, Junior, Guard, 9.1 points per game
Matt Bouldin, Senior, Guard, 13.6 points per game
Sam Dower, Freshman, Forward, DNP last season
Robert Sacre, Sophomore, Center, 3.0 points per game
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Comments
That was sort of empty....
Submitted by BillyU (not verified) on Mon, 2009-10-19 12:34.
did you actually do any research on this evaluation?
Many words -- No substance
Submitted by quidveritas (not verified) on Tue, 2009-10-20 15:16.
I have to wonder if the author ever watched a Gonzaga game in the past two years and if he has any idea of what is going on at Gonzaga.
Randy's comments are right on and it doesn't stop there.
Personally I don't think Meech will start every game. As good as he is, there are probably more than a few bigger talents on the team that will occupy the starting lineup.
Bouldin and Gray (who does a whole lot more than perimeter shooting -- Did you see the U-Con game last year?) are the only shoe-in's as starters. After that, everything is going to be up in the air. Goodson, arris, Arop, Boll, Polling, Sacre, and maybe Dower will all vie for a starting spot.
Gonzaga is young, inexperience, and very very deep.
IMO the only question marks are:
1. How much will Will Foster contribute this year?
2. Who is going to redshirt -- one of the new arrivals will definitely redshirt. Absent any injuries, my best guess would be Olynyk. But I haven't seen him on the court yet so he may well surprise all of us.
Gonzaga @ #31
Submitted by oldestlion (not verified) on Tue, 2009-10-20 18:54.
The negative comments are undoubtedly the result of your placing the Zags out of the Top 25, but your reluctance is understood considering the inexperience in the U.S. of so many recruits. Harris and Olynyk are real. The Michigan State game on 11/15 will prove you right or wrong.
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About Joel Welser
Columnist
College Preview Editor
Contact
jwelser@collegehoops.net
Background
"Joel Welser does a tremendous job covering college basketball. He gives his readers knowledgeable and insightful information on college hoops." -Ernie Zeigler, Head Basketball Coach, Central Michigan University "Joel Welser writes clean, knowledgeable copy that always hits deadline." -Greg Eno, former editor-in-chief, Motor City Sports Magazine Growing up in Michigan, Joel Welser inherited a love for Big Ten sports. After defying all family traditions and not going to Michigan State, Joel headed out west to earn his bachelor degree from California State University, Northridge in Cinema Television Arts, specializing in screenwriting. For reasons still unknown, after his stint in Hollywood, Joel headed back to Michigan where he remains to this day complaining about the cold. Joel has found a successful formula with the popular top 144 series at collegehoops.net and has also written college football and college basketball previews and articles for various websites and magazines.
Location
Portage, MI
One player missing
You failed to include what maybe the best newcomer of them all, and that's incoming German forward Elias Harris who averaged 14 PPG and 7 RPG at the U20 European Championships this summer. Elias also played with the German senior national team this fall.
You also failed to include incoming Canadian wing Kelly Olynyk (who is an Austin Daye-like 6-11) who played for the U19 Canadian team this summer (alongside Arop). Kelly had 14 points and 7 boards against Team USA in the FIBA quarterfinals. That Team USA team was filled with U.S. college players.
"This may not be the best recruiting class to step foot in Spokane, but it is a big group."
That remains to be seen. You really cannot properly evaluate a U.S. college's recruiting class when 4 of the newcomers are international players who U.S. scouts, for the most part, haven't seen play.
Lastly, there is a good chance that redshirt freshman big man Andy Poling will see more significant playing time than Dower or any other big man coming off the pine. Andy was once a universal top 25 player in the 2008 class until a bad illness caused him to lose a ton of weight and derail his development as a prospect.