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NBA
Draft Lottery
NBA Draft Lottery
The NBA Draft Lottery
is an annual event selecting the top three picks of the following
NBA
Draft. First established in 1985, it
was at first a chance drawing for all first-round picks, with all
non-playoff teams (in 1985 there were seven non-playoff teams in the
NBA) having
equal chance of landing the number one pick. The
New York Knicks won the lottery in 1985 and made
Patrick Ewing the number one pick. Beginning with 1987, the lottery
changed so that only the top three picks would be selected by the
traditional lottery, represented by ping-pong balls. In
1990,
however, the NBA
changed the format of the lottery to give the worst team the most
chances of landing the top pick. For the 11 non-playoff teams that
season, the team with the worst record would have 11 chances, the second
worse would have 10, etc. However, the
Orlando Magic defied the odds by gaining two number one picks
consecutively, despite the fact that they were the best non-playoff team
the second year. Thus, beginning with the
1994
lottery the chances were weighed even more, so that the best non-playoff
team would only have a slim (0.5%) chance of receiving the top pick.
How the Lottery Works
Fourteen ping pong balls
numbered 1-14 are placed in standard lottery machine and four balls are
drawn at random to determine the winner. Just as in most traditional
lotteries, the order of the numbers are not important, so although there
are 24 different orders the same four numbers are drawn, all are treated
as the same combination. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same
as 3-4-2-1. By eliminating the importance of the order of the numbers,
the 24,024 (14x13x12x11) sequences are reduced to 1,001 sets. Of these
1,000 are divided among all the non-playoff NBA teams. The one
combination not assigned is 11-12-13-14, which has never been drawn.
As of 2005, with 30 NBA teams,
16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in
the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their
regular season in the event of a tie, a simple tiebreaker (usually a
coin flip) is performed to determine which team gets the better position
and assigned the following number of chances.
1. 250 combinations 25% chance
of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations 19.9%
chance
3. 156 combinations 15.6%
chance
4. 119 combinations 11.9%
chance
5. 88 combinations 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations 1.1%
chance
11. 8 combinations 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations 0.5% chance
In the event of a tie, the
combinations for the two spots in question are split evenly between the
tied teams with any extra pick given to the winner of the tiebreaker.
The lottery is conducted with witnesses verifying the all 14 balls are
represented once as they are placed in the lottery machine. The balls
are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize prior to having
the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10 second
intervals. NBA League Officials determine which team holds the winning
combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The
four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to
determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination
belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the 1 unassigned
combination comes up), the round is repeated until a unique winner is
determined. When the first three teams have been determined, the
remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the
worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures each team that it
can drop no more than 3 spots from its projected.
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