NBA Draft Lottery 2009: Odds & Ends

    
May 18th, 2009

The 2009 NBA Draft Lottery was held Tuesday night, May 19th, in Secaucus, NJ as always. The LA Clippers beat the odds and won the #1 pick in the 2009 Draft, which presumably will go to Blake Griffin. This is the 5th time in a row the team with the worst record did not win the #1 pick. (Last year, Chicago won the #1 pick despite having just 17 out of 1000 chances for that spot (1.7%), and used it on Rookie of the Year Derrick Rose. Read more about the history of the #1 pick in the Lottery). 

 

The Kings had the best chance at #1 with 25% odds, but slid down to 4th place . Notice however, that they actually had less than a 50% chance combined (46.47) of getting the Top 2 picks. There was actually a better chance (53.53%) that they would get the 3rd or 4th pick. Washington won a tiebreaker with the Clippers, to get an extra shot at the first pick, but they were big losers along with the Kings, and drop into the 5th slot.

 

Memphis moved all the way from 7th to 2nd (8.3% chance), while Oklahoma City jumps a spot to 4th. 

 

Despite all the conspiracy theories, the Knicks (with a 2.8% chance) did not get the #1 pick.

 

Draft Order

1. LA Clippers

2. Memphis

3. Oklahoma City

4. Sacramento

5. Washington

6. MInnesota

7. Golden State

8. New York

9. Toronto

10. Milwaukee

11. New Jersey

12. Charlotte

13. Indiana

14. Phoenix

 

Draft Odds

 

TEAM RECORD CHANCES 1ST 2ND 3RD
Sacramento 17-65 250

25.00%

21.5%

17.7%

Washington 19-63 178

17.80%

17.4%

16.4%

LA Clippers 19-63 177

17.70%

17.3%

16.4%

Oklahoma City 23-59 119

11.90%

12.6%

13.2%

Minnesota 24-58 76

7.60%

8.4%

9.5%

Memphis 24-58 75

7.50%

8.3%

9.4%

Golden State 29-53 43

4.30%

4.9%

5.8%

New York 32-50 28

2.80%

3.3%

3.9%

Toronto 33-49 17

1.70%

2.0%

2.4%

Milwaukee 34-48 10

1.10%

1.3%

1.6%

New Jersey 34-48 9

0.80%

1.0%

1.2%

Charlotte 35-47 7

0.70%

0.8%

1.0%

Indiana 36-46 6

0.60%

0.7%

0.9%

Phoenix 46-36 5

0.50%

0.6%

0.7%

 

Also See:

2008 Lottery Odds

2007 Lottery Odds